Patriots 4.5 favorite vs Bengals

[Synovia]

What I am saying is the bookies and other teams around the league really don't know what to make of this Patriot team.

The bookies DONT CARE whether the Patriots are good. All they care about is what the public perception of the Patriots is.

Somehow, that perception is that the Patriots are old (and yet, have an inexperienced defense?), and that Brady and Moss have declined significantly.


Vegas doesn't care whether thats right or wrong, they just care if people believe that, and what side of the line they are on. Remember, Vegas doesn't make their money on the results of bets, they make their money on the juice.

They can put an over/under of 5 and as long as people are somewhere around 50% on each side, they make money, even if the team wins 15 games.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I think the Bengals are on their way back to their familair 6-10 territory after one flash in the pan season.
4.5 is based on those Bengals, same old Bengals would have it around 7.5, IMO.
This one doesnt worry me at all.

IDK how you are seeing that at all. Their two WRs are Ochocinco and T.O, their runninggame is better than ours. Their defense is better than ours.

It will be a very close game.

 

[goheels22002]

It means the bookies don't quite know what to make of the Patriots.
And if it's true with the bookies then it's true with the Pats opponents.
I like that!!
The Bengals are a really good team and this will be a terriifc statement game for the Patriots. And when all is said and done the bookies and the rest of the league will see how the Patriots D isn't anywhere near as bad as the mediots would have you believe and the offense is simply unstoppable
How fast will it take the Bengals to call timeout when the Crumpler, Gronk, Hernandez, Moss, Welker formation lines up??

Great question. The Bungles call time out and BB comes back with a line-up of Tate, Moss, Welker, Edelman and Gronk. Oops. Screen pass to Faulk for the TD! Logan Mankins is going to miss a lot of fun on offense.

I think the 4.5 is over/under for drops in traffic by alligator arms TO and Nachostinko!

 

[Synovia]

IDK how you are seeing that at all. Their two WRs are Ochocinco and T.O, their runninggame is better than ours. Their defense is better than ours.

It will be a very close game.

There's a reason TO keeps getting cut from teams. Hes just not that good anymore.

As to their running game and defense being better than ours, we'll see. Neither is great shakes. Our passing offense is DRASTICALLY better than theirs.

 

[Ring 6]

IDK how you are seeing that at all. Their two WRs are Ochocinco and T.O, their runninggame is better than ours. Their defense is better than ours.

It will be a very close game.

You act as if having TO is a good thing for them.
They ran for 8 more yards a game than us last year, mostly because they had to run because their passing game sucked.
Not sure why you think their D is better than ours.
Bengals are on their way to 6-10 and won't come close to stopping this offense.

 

[Ring 6]

The Pats are at home, where they have rarely lost (not including Ravens post season game) and should be more than a 4.5 overall favorite.

It certainly DOES mean that they bookies are not hot about their chances of winning.

What does at home have to do with it? The 3 points was deducted y the first poster.
Thats fine though, you go ahead and keep thinking that being a 4.5 point favorite, the same a 1.5 on a neutral field against the 10-6 NFCN Champs is a negative statement.
Guess the Jets being a 2 point home favorite vs the 9-7 Wild Card Ravens is Vegas saying they blow right?

 

[Leave No Doubt]

Pray? ..........

For what? That we can somehow stop the vaunted TO? Or that we can somehow score a TD or 2 against the Bengal's vaunted defense? :bricks: The only thing BB will be praying for is NO INJURIES, and I'll be praying right along with him.

 

[Synovia]

It certainly DOES mean that they bookies are not hot about their chances of winning.

Again, no. The bookies do not make odds based on who they think will win. Their odds are based on what they think the betting public's perception of the game is.

A spread of 4.5 points with the Pats at home means the bookies think the public thinks the game is a slightly better than a toss up.


Also, the spreads are usually on the small side at the beginning of the year.

 

[Ring 6]

Again, no. The bookies do not make odds based on who they think will win. Their odds are based on what they think the betting public's perception of the game is.

A spread of 4.5 points with the Pats at home means the bookies think the public thinks the game is a slightly better than a toss up.


Also, the spreads are usually on the small side at the beginning of the year.

Correction: a 4.5spread means the public thinks it is slighty better than a toss up ON A NEUTRAL FIELD

 

[PATSNUTme]

So the Jets are only 2 point favorite over the Ravens at the Jets home. Does that mean that Vegas does not think highly of the Jets after all the media and Rex hype?

 

[Uncle Rico]

So the Jets are only 2 point favorite over the Ravens at the Jets home. Does that mean that Vegas does not think highly of the Jets after all the media and Rex hype?

Ravens just added TJ Houshmandzadeh.

Adam Schefter (Adam_Schefter) on Twitter

Within 24 hours, Ravens land WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Jets land CB Darrelle Revis. Next Monday night, Balt-NYJ, got more intriguing.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

Actually the "bookies" opened -6 Pats. Money went to the Bengals side so Vegas lowered the line. I think the Patriots are still concensus at -4.5.

 

[Synovia]

Actually the "bookies" opened -6 Pats. Money went to the Bengals side so Vegas lowered the line. I think the Patriots are still concensus at -4.5.

Which is exactly the point: Vegas has absolutely no oppinion about these teams. They don't give a crap who is good. All they care about is that there's even money on each side, so they don't lose money.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

So the Jets are only 2 point favorite over the Ravens at the Jets home. Does that mean that Vegas does not think highly of the Jets after all the media and Rex hype?

All it means is that the betting public didn't fall for the media hype on the Jets. They have fallen for the hype on the Ravens though.

 

[Triumph]

On the ground, it is. But through the air, I'm not so sure they're going to be able to torch us like everyone else thinks they will. That offensive line has SUCKED in the preseason and Palmer has been running for his life. For all of our problems on defense right now, I'm sure Bill will be able to scheme something up to get a good amount of pressure on Palmer from all angles. Their O-Line's inability to pass block this season should be the Bengals' undoing.

Well, if the Cinci ground game gets going, that opens up play action passing. Also, keep in mind if the NE Corners dont cover and leave a 10 yard cushion (where have we seen this?) Palmer can get the ball there sooner.

I can see NE losing this game. I hope Im wrong.

 

[Triumph]

Also, the spreads are usually on the small side at the beginning of the year.

Also, Vegas can be way off at the first of the season. There were some spreads first of last season that were real head scratchers when it was all said and done.

As the season goes on, they fine tune their spreads.

 

[Ring 6]

Well, if the Cinci ground game gets going, that opens up play action passing. Also, keep in mind if the NE Corners dont cover and leave a 10 yard cushion (where have we seen this?) Palmer can get the ball there sooner.

I can see NE losing this game. I hope Im wrong.

Can we please stop with the 10 yard cushion bs.
Watch and try to understand what you are seeing.
We dont put corners man to man on WRs and give a 10 yard cushion. That is idiotic and a Pop Warner coach wouldnt do it.
If the corner has a deep 1/3 he isnt going to be covering the WR in the first 10 yards of the pattern.
We play a lot of zone. Please try to ask questions when you see something you don't understand instead of acting like something that makes absolutely no sense is happening.

 

[Patspsycho]

Well, if the Cinci ground game gets going, that opens up play action passing. Also, keep in mind if the NE Corners dont cover and leave a 10 yard cushion (where have we seen this?) Palmer can get the ball there sooner.

I can see NE losing this game. I hope Im wrong.

Play action is the last thing you want to be doing when your OL sucks. Andy has already answered the 10 yard cushion myth.

The only thing I am worried about is Cedric Peerman, their new RB. He is lightning fast.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

The bookies DONT CARE whether the Patriots are good. All they care about is what the public perception of the Patriots is.

Somehow, that perception is that the Patriots are old (and yet, have an inexperienced defense?), and that Brady and Moss have declined significantly.


Vegas doesn't care whether thats right or wrong, they just care if people believe that, and what side of the line they are on. Remember, Vegas doesn't make their money on the results of bets, they make their money on the juice.

They can put an over/under of 5 and as long as people are somewhere around 50% on each side, they make money, even if the team wins 15 games.

I never said the bookies care whether the Patriots are good or not. Helloooooooooooooo.....
Of course bookies have to have knowledge of the sport and teams they're setting lines and taking bets on. It's pure folly to suggest they only take the public's temperature when setting lines. Based on your premise the Patriots should be an outright favorite in this game since the public perception is the Bengals are good and the Patriots are old and have no defense. Making the Patriots a clear favorite would draw lots of juice no?? And when the Patriots won the game all that juice that was placed on the Bengals would mean big big profits no?? Bottom line is it's silly to suggest bookies are indifferent to the actual strengths and weaknesses of teams.

 

[Patsfanau93]

No way......... We're gonna suck this year. I say we get beat by at least 60 on this one.

Everyone knows it, just read ANY other thread in here lately.

Your ******ed get off this forum if your going to be stupid