Overreaction Monday 2022

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Keeping a close eye on rodgers and the pack. Similar open as last year but they ended the 1 seed. Next week against the bears will be interesting

 

[Toofy]

That's what I felt as well when I watched the game yesterday...

 

[mgteich]

It's Mahomeboy/Allen to lose.

Has Herbert been injured?

 

[Guts]

Has Herbert been injured?

I still feel like they'll lose games they have no business losing, but we shall see

 

[VrabelJr]

That's what I felt as well when I watched the game yesterday...

Such cheap thoughts don’t require a nuanced reply, but I’m a giver:

1) Geno Smith has been in the league for nine years
2) Geno Smith has been in the Seahawks system for three years
3) Geno Smith has DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to throw to

 

[Toofy]

Such cheap thoughts don’t require a nuanced reply, but I’m a giver:

1) Geno Smith has been in the league for nine years
2) Geno Smith has been in the Seahawks system for three years
3) Geno Smith has DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to throw to

Thanks.. but why you feel the thoughts are cheap..aren't you allowed to overreact ?

 

[ivanvamp]

Such cheap thoughts don’t require a nuanced reply, but I’m a giver:

1) Geno Smith has been in the league for nine years
2) Geno Smith has been in the Seahawks system for three years
3) Geno Smith has DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to throw to

I know, right? I mean, sure it's *possible* that Geno Smith is better than Mac Jones *right now*. But he is leading absolutely NO franchise anywhere ever. Maybe - MAYBE - to the playoffs if everything breaks right. But you don't build a future around Geno Smith.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

It's probably discussed elsewhere, but what do people think about the 64-yard FG attempt in DEN-SEA?

It's an interesting puzzle. What were the odds of success? 20%? 25%?

But the alternative is to complete 4th and 6 successfully, and THEN make a FG that would likely still be over 50 yards long. What were the odds of success of doing BOTH? 20%? 25%?

I know the coach has said that if he had it to do over again, he'd have kept the offense on the field. But that is 20-20 hindsight.

What say you?

 

[mgteich]

It's probably discussed elsewhere, but what do people think about the 64-yard FG attempt in DEN-SEA?

It's an interesting puzzle. What were the odds of success? 20%? 25%?

But the alternative is to complete 4th and 6 successfully, and THEN make a FG that would likely still be over 50 yards long. What were the odds of success of doing BOTH? 20%? 25%?

I know the coach has said that if he had it to do over again, he'd have kept the offense on the field. But that is 20-20 hindsight.

What say you?

DEN had 45 seconds left and had 4th and 5. The odds of a top QB succeeding are NOT tiny.

The kicker was 1 for 8 beyond 60 yards.

The team just paid an enormous amount to secure the QB. Not putting the ball in his hands amounts to gross negligence.

 

[VrabelJr]

It's probably discussed elsewhere, but what do people think about the 64-yard FG attempt in DEN-SEA?

It's an interesting puzzle. What were the odds of success? 20%? 25%?

But the alternative is to complete 4th and 6 successfully, and THEN make a FG that would likely still be over 50 yards long. What were the odds of success of doing BOTH? 20%? 25%?

I know the coach has said that if he had it to do over again, he'd have kept the offense on the field. But that is 20-20 hindsight.

What say you?

I think Denver forgot the game wasn't in Denver.

 

[p8ryts]

That's what I felt as well when I watched the game yesterday...

Well, that's not surprising from Volin. After 9 mediocre seasons from Smith and 1 season and 1 game, Ben throws Mac under the bus. Just another reason why I don't read the Globe.

 

[Toofy]

Well, that's not surprising from Volin. After 9 mediocre seasons from Smith and 1 season and 1 game, Ben throws Mac under the bus. Just another reason why I don't read the Globe.

Tbh I did see a great game last year from geno in one of the Seattle games and he screwed up in the end. However here they won it thanks to Denver's penalties and poor coaching.

I want to see how he does this season and yeah it's an overreaction from Ben and also from my end after the first week .

Again I saw only 1 drive from pats that went to the end zone and in all other drives felt like the fins had some semblance of control . This week should tell us a bit better of how we are as a team.

 

[Fuzz]

We stink and it was painful, hours later, to watch Tom Brady come out, and despite issues with his own O line (particularly in the redzone), make it look easy and easily get the win (oh, and his D was way better too). Okay, thanks.

 

[Pats1971]

I know, right? I mean, sure it's *possible* that Geno Smith is better than Mac Jones *right now*. But he is leading absolutely NO franchise anywhere ever. Maybe - MAYBE - to the playoffs if everything breaks right. But you don't build a future around Geno Smith.

How do you know Mac is leading a franchise somewhere?

 

[Pats1971]

View attachment 45366

QBR
Brady 53.4
Jones 9.7

Its important to watch the games and oh yeah, Brady has 7 superbowls and does not have to prove he can do something Mac does.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

DEN had 45 seconds left and had 4th and 5. The odds of a top QB succeeding are NOT tiny.

The kicker was 1 for 8 beyond 60 yards.

The team just paid an enormous amount to secure the QB. Not putting the ball in his hands amounts to gross negligence.

Thanks for the opinion. I was just thinking out loud.

I wonder what the odds actually are on converting 4th and 6. Way less than 50%, but probably way more than 10%. So not tiny, but in the 20-40% area. Then you pair that with still having to make a FG, though granted there is still time to get it closer, you'd likely be in the 15-30% range for success. Less than 1-in-3, I'd think.

He was 1-8 from 60+ over a career, only 12.5%. That's a small sample size and they have likely seen him try hundreds of long FGs, granted, most at altitude, so maybe they thought his chances were more like 1 in 4, perhaps based on pregame and day-before practice on that very field.

Personally I'd rather not rely on a kicker unless the clock is gone, so I would also have opted for going for it with the offense. But I'm not sure it's clearly better, from a statistical perspective.

 

[XLIX]

DEN had 45 seconds left and had 4th and 5. The odds of a top QB succeeding are NOT tiny.

The kicker was 1 for 8 beyond 60 yards.

The team just paid an enormous amount to secure the QB. Not putting the ball in his hands amounts to gross negligence.

Statistically it wasn't the atrocious decision the media is making it out to be. There is a lot of Tuesday morning QBing going on and it is worth noting that distance was not the problem in that kick.

First of all, my stats (nfl.com) show he was 1 for 4 at 60+ prior to Monday night. Regardless, he clearly had the leg strength to make it.

Second of all, I have seen/heard countless pundits state that it is more likely they convert 4th and 5 than it is they succeed on a 60+ yard FG. While that may very well be true, it horrendously omits the fact that converting the 1st down doesn't give you the points you need to take the lead. If you succeed in converting 4th and 5, you most likely still need to kick a 50+ yard FG.

It is tough to nail down precisely the percentage of successfully converting 4th and 5. Historically, a number less than 50% seems reasonable. And there is simply no way to know what would have happened after that. Maybe Denver gains 40 yards. Maybe they fumble. Given the way that drive was going, IMHO the most likely outcome (assuming they convert 4th down) is that they still have to kick a FG in the low to mid 50's range, from which McManus is 16-27.

EDIT: I wrote the above before reading @Palm Beach Pats Fan 's reply.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

View attachment 45366

Receipts FTW.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

We traded away our best receiver (N’Keal Harry) so who is Mac supposed to throw to??!!

This guy in the #Freekendrickbourne thread thinks N'Keal Harry is actually Davante Parker.

Who is Spiderman.

 

[Fuzz]

QBR
Brady 53.4
Jones 9.7

Its important to watch the games and oh yeah, Brady has 7 superbowls and does not have to prove he can do something Mac does.

ahem

Wait, I had to go look at the formula to see. It actually calculates TD pct in...So less throws to get a td better. Kinda stupid. So a QB could run the ball down the field and then throw a td at the end and it means he has a better Qb rating. Anyway...

On a similar subject, is there any more stupid stat than QBR? ESPN's little thing they do that nobody knows what they do in order to come up with a number? I have seen some of the weirdest numbers off that.