OT: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

[RobertWeathers]

TBD on Sanchez IMO. Losing Washington was a blow. Edwards is a top WR when he feels like it. Keller is fine. Crotchery is very good. Their O-line is ok to decent.

If hes a disaster next year at this time..Not good.

 

[maverick4]

That's my point. Trading for Braylon Edwards was a dumb move by Tannenbaum. They aren't helping Sanchez learn how to swim gradually, they just threw him in the swimming pool.

 

[patsinthesnow]

That's my point. Trading for Braylon Edwards was a dumb move by Tannenbaum. They aren't helping Sanchez learn how to swim gradually, they just threw him in the swimming pool.

Good Point. Flacco had a top 3 defense and a great runninggame.

 

[D-cleater]

Great analysis and post, which is rare around here with the usual idiots spraying their s***. It pleases me to no end to see the Jets fell into this trap that you describe so well. To have a good player but not understand how develop him correctly....classic Jets. I love that the failure to develop Sanchez will contribute to Ryan's failure as a coach as well. Fantastic stuff.

I wonder if further analysis on Flacco and Ryan would show that both were aided by good or great running games, and playing against some soft pass defenses of 2008 (Cleveland and Cinci for Flacco, NO, Carolina, and Tampa for Ryan)

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

People forget how lucky Sanchez was during those first few games. He could easily have had 4 of his passes turned into picks against the Saints, and he did nothing against the Patriots in the first half of the week 2 game, and got his score when 2 defenders collided on the downfield pass over the middle.

I won't say that he's been ruined, because I think it's too early to tell that, but he's certainly been thrown into the battle long before he was ready. They should have gone with Clemens and given Sanchez time to learn on the sidelines. Then, a change at QB later in the season wouldn't have been a big deal. Now, if they bench Sanchez, you've got to deal with the bonus baby having his feelings hurt.

 

[maverick4]

I was watching Sanchez very closely his first 5 games.

The guy can play, has talent, touch, and is a leader. Or, at least, he was a good prospect.


The biggest problem is he's being asked to do WAY too many things now for a rookie.
His recent failures may end up scarring him long term.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Does anyone here think that Sanchez was overrated coming into the NFL draft?

His resum'e:

*1 season of football
*Amazing team talent around him
*12-1 record, a loss in primetime against Oklahoma St.
*Leaving his junior season.

I never understood how he went at #5...?

 

[C'Mon Son]

Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

People forget how lucky Sanchez was during those first few games. He could easily have had 4 of his passes turned into picks against the Saints, and he did nothing against the Patriots in the first half of the week 2 game, and got his score when 2 defenders collided on the downfield pass over the middle.

I won't say that he's been ruined, because I think it's too early to tell that, but he's certainly been thrown into the battle long before he was ready. They should have gone with Clemens and given Sanchez time to learn on the sidelines. Then, a change at QB later in the season wouldn't have been a big deal. Now, if they bench Sanchez, you've got to deal with the bonus baby having his feelings hurt.

Alright really...you gotta give Sanchez some credit...the guy is in the nfl for a reason..he has good mechanics and has proved he can make some good throws...at some points in the season he has shown his ability and has played well in some games.....it wasn't "luck"

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

Alright really...you gotta give Sanchez some credit...the guy is in the nfl for a reason..he has good mechanics and has proved he can make some good throws...at some points in the season he has shown his ability and has played well in some games.....it wasn't "luck"

Yes, it was luck. I watched the games. He wasn't ready for the NFL. He still isn't.

 

[C'Mon Son]

Sanchez's TD was to Keller...nobody collided?...if you're talking about the pass to cotchery on that drive...the defenders collided after the pass was completed...as far as i remember

 

[patchick]

I've always suspected that too much is made of the idea of "ruining" quarterbacks. Peyton Manning wasn't ruined by starting right away for a lousy team, and Tim Couch wouldn't have become an All-Pro if he'd spent a year on the bench. It's just hard to get a reading on "typical" rookie QB performance because most QBs who start from day 1 do so because they were drafted high by a lousy and desperate team.

In the past decade, only 4 rookie QBs including Sanchez have started early for a team that was competitive the prior year (6-10 or better). In those cases, with a decent roster to work with, the QB's rookie performance has been quite an accurate predictor of his later career.

Here are the rookie year stats, in descending order by QB rating. Stats for Sanchez are projections based on his 10-game numbers.

Player Draft Yr COMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RATING
Roethlisberger, Ben 2004 196 295 66.4 2621 17 11 98.1
Flacco, Joe 2008 257 428 60.0 2971 14 12 80.3
Leftwich, Byron 2003 239 418 57.2 2819 14 16 73
Sanchez, Mark 2009 221 424 52.1 2866 16 26 61.1

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I've always suspected that too much is made of the idea of "ruining" quarterbacks. Peyton Manning wasn't ruined by starting right away for a lousy team, and Tim Couch wouldn't have become an All-Pro if he'd spent a year on the bench. It's just hard to get a reading on "typical" rookie QB performance because most QBs who start from day 1 do so because they were drafted high by a lousy and desperate team.

In the past decade, only 4 rookie QBs including Sanchez have started early for a team that was competitive the prior year (6-10 or better). In those cases, with a decent roster to work with, the QB's rookie performance has been quite an accurate predictor of his later career.

Here are the rookie year stats, in descending order by QB rating. Stats for Sanchez are projections based on his 10-game numbers.

Player Draft Yr COMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RATING
Roethlisberger, Ben 2004 196 295 66.4 2621 17 11 98.1
Flacco, Joe 2008 257 428 60.0 2971 14 12 80.3
Leftwich, Byron 2003 239 418 57.2 2819 14 16 73
Sanchez, Mark 2009 221 424 52.1 2866 16 26 61.1

Good research. I think it just bolsters the argument more that "you are what you are." Whether it was the Jets fault for starting him too soon hardly matters, although nearly every successful NFL quarterback did have a one-year cushion to get acclimated with the league. But what this shows me, reinforces, is the specious argument that quarterbacks tend to improve greatly after their rookie, or first, season. There are very, very few who show the type of gradual improvement that people think it typical of a quarterback's progress. Manning is one of the few who's QB rating went from the low-70s to low-80s to low-90s to low-100s, to 121 in 2004. More than likely if a QB begins with a low rating he going to hover near that rating, maybe a very slight improvement but still a "bust"; in the last ten years I can not find someone else on the "Manning scale" who gradually gets better, after a rough start. Myth busted.

 

[patchick]

Good research. I think it just bolsters the argument more that "you are what you are." Whether it was the Jets fault for starting him too soon hardly matters, although nearly every successful NFL quarterback did have a one-year cushion to get acclimated with the league. But what this shows me, reinforces, is the specious argument that quarterbacks tend to improve greatly after their rookie, or first, season. There are very, very few who show the type of gradual improvement that people think it typical of a quarterback's progress. Manning is one of the few who's QB rating went from the low-70s to low-80s to low-90s to low-100s, to 121 in 2004. More than likely if a QB begins with a low rating he going to hover near that rating, maybe a very slight improvement but still a "bust"; in the last ten years I can not find someone else on the "Manning scale" who gradually gets better, after a rough start. Myth busted.

Agreed. When you hear that reference to Peyton's 28-INT rookie season over and over every time any rookie QB struggles, that's a tipoff that Manning's path has been a dramatic exception to the rule.

Frankly, even Manning's rookie struggles are overstated. Everybody quotes the INT number, conveniently forgetting to mention that he also ranked in the top 5 for TDs and passing yards his rookie year. (Sanchez doesn't even crack the top 20 for any major stat...except interceptions.)

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I just wanted to re-post this from last November, just two months into the season. Very early returns from the second year suggest Sanchez is in really big trouble. Even if he begins to turn it around, I think the historical evidence is overwhelming that he will ultimately fail.

 

[Haley]

Interesting thread. Well presented case.

I'd have to say I agree with you but not entirely for the reasons you so detailed (but I did find some merit to the argument). I just think its rather hard to learn to sail on a sinking ship. You tend to learn a lot more about bailing water than rigging and keeling. Pretty soon that's all you know how to do. Maybe if Sanchez had been surrounded by a better class of offense he'd have been able to learn better habits.

It seems to me he has a lot of "unlearning" to do.

 

[NEPatriot]

He sure looked OK to me today. I think a QB should be given a few years before a judgement is made. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

He sure looked OK to me today. I think a QB should be given a few years before a judgement is made. Just my 2 cents.

Yep, he looked fantastic today. For all the typical homerisms about so-and-so should have done this, a lot of those throws were very tough. We'll see how this plays out. I still think the odds are against Sanchez, but the Jets have definitely given him the weapons and confidence to succeed.

Not that I won't eat crow if I am wrong five years from now, but it's not like Tim Couch, or even RYAN LEAF (yes, I said it), never had games where they looked great. I mean, any top-5 talent obviously has some skills. Sanchez is an interesting case; horrendous stats but a trip to the AFCCG as a rookie. My guess is he's made or broken by the end of year two.

 

[WelshPat]

He sure looked OK to me today. I think a QB should be given a few years before a judgement is made. Just my 2 cents.

Not in every case...

 

[lenco12]

Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

The big thing that's noticeable with Sanchez is his decision making. He does a nice job of eluding the pass rush inside his own 5 yard line, then instead of throwing the ball away he makes a horrible decision throwing the ball off of his back foot deep in his own territory. Terrible decision. And that was far from an isolated instance.

At this point Sanchez is shell-shocked. When you've throw more INTs than Jake Delhomme, that's bad - Sanchez is even giving Jay Cutler a run for his money as an INT maker. He needs to sit on the sideline, eat a few hot dogs, and learn how to be an NFL QB.

I see Cutler as a similar situation to Sanchez. Cutler is pretty much the only piece of talent in the bears offense right now. The line is terrible, and Hester is the only legitimate WR they have. Sanchez has a better line, and better WRs, but hes got nowhere near the tools at this point.

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[jcdavey]

Yep, he looked fantastic today. For all the typical homerisms about so-and-so should have done this, a lot of those throws were very tough. We'll see how this plays out. I still think the odds are against Sanchez, but the Jets have definitely given him the weapons and confidence to succeed.

Not that I won't eat crow if I am wrong five years from now, but it's not like Tim Couch, or even RYAN LEAF (yes, I said it), never had games where they looked great. I mean, any top-5 talent obviously has some skills. Sanchez is an interesting case; horrendous stats but a trip to the AFCCG as a rookie. My guess is he's made or broken by the end of year two.

ryan leaf started 2-0 and looked like utter **** the rest of his pathetic career

no comparison can be made to leaf and sanchez, not even in the slightest


take it from a chargers fan, you can't even compare jamarcus and leaf IMO

leaf was the worst qb in the history of mankind