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OT: Peyton Manning doesn't call all his own plays...

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I guess Manning only calls his own plays when it's convenient for him.

He calls the ones that turn out to work, and the ones that don't work get assigned to the coach.

very convenient!

Lots of us have had the misfortune of having bosses like that- they take all of your ideas, lay claim to the ones that lead to great success, and lay the blame back on you for the not-so-successful ideas.
 
OT but this was before the game, it was a cringe-worthy moment for me, did anybody else see this?

 
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The 2 situations are completely different. Payton's was a premeditated calculated decision, they chose to receive knowing in a close game they were going to onside to start the 2nd half. It was more than a 2nd-half spur of the moment decision.

The 4th and 2 wasn't completely based on whether the D could stop Peyton. It was based on the odds of what had the better chance of winning the game.

You take probability of Brady completing 4th and 2 pass + (probability of missing * probability of Manning scoring in 2 minutes from the 30) and then compare it to the probability of the Colts scoring at any point throughout the punt (block probability), punt return (special teams and field position considerations), and subsequent drive (based on various probabilities of starting position). It's not an exact science, but the injured (Jarvis and TBC both injured early) and tired (they were gassed being down 2 starters early and playing the high flying colts) defense along with having Tom F'ing Brady put the probabilities in favor of going for it.

As for Peyton Manning, either he was too stupid to change the 'bad' play call, he agreed with the 'bad' play call, or he's not allowed to change plays that are called. Either way you cut it, Manning is a moron for opening his mouth.
 
There's no hypocrisy there at all. The 4th and 2 was a terrible decision because of the entirety of the situation. The onside kick was a great call because of that same reasoning. The drive at the end of the half is a play calling issue.

Sorry, you can't have it both ways. The 4th-n-2 was a terrible decision because it didn't work (well it did, but...). The onside kick was a great call because it worked.

You can explain it however you want, but if the official spots the 4th-n-2 play correctly, Belichick would have gotten the same exact praise that Payton is getting now. If Baskett didn't try to catch the onside kick with his helmet (obviously didn't have the same helmet polish as Tyree) and the Saints went on to lose, Payton would have been absolutely crucified by the media. That is the hypocrisy. You may be different than everyone else in the world, but I don't recall you (or anyone else) going out of your way to praise a failed result.

"the entirety of the situation" is code for justifying the value of a call by the result. In what way was the onside kick a quality call? The chance of success was at best 50% and the consequence was an almost certain score by the Colts. That means a 7 or 11 point deficit with less than 2 quarters to play. The greatest deficit ever overcome in the SB was 10 points. The Saints to that point were playing reasonably well on defense and hadn't reached the end zone yet. How is that for the entirety of the situation!
 
"the entirety of the situation" is code for justifying the value of a call by the result. In what way was the onside kick a quality call? The chance of success was at best 50% and the consequence was an almost certain score by the Colts. That means a 7 or 11 point deficit with less than 2 quarters to play. The greatest deficit ever overcome in the SB was 10 points. The Saints to that point were playing reasonably well on defense and hadn't reached the end zone yet. How is that for the entirety of the situation!

I don't agree with what Deus is saying, but I disagree that the onside kick was a bad call. They planned it, they practiced it, the Colts weren't expecting it. I can't pretend to know what the real number percentage chance was but I think it's higher than 50%.

I agree 100% with BB's 4th and 2 call as well, it was the absolute right decision.
 
Whether or not a run play on 3rd and 1 is a bad call is debatable but what's not debatable is the fact that they used Mike Hart (another RB "stud" out of Michigan who has not lived up to what he showed there) on that play.

Mike Hart, who in two years in the NFL has 28 carries for 79 yards.
 
I want to agree with you, but I don't think running on 3rd and 1 is "conservative". I bet running backs pick up 1+ yards on more than 70% of their carries, which would make it statistically more likely to get the first than a typical pass play would.

Now, if you're saying that that whole drive was conservative (running three straight times), I have no beef.

It was conservative because they showed a power/run formation and they are the worst running team in the league. I agree that RBs gain 1+ yards almost all the time when you consider all possible situations. Colts RBs don't when they are backed up, time running down in the half, power formation, small OL blocking against a big DL defending almost exclusively against the run. The chances of success for the Colts in that particular situation weren't very good.
 
Sorry, you can't have it both ways. The 4th-n-2 was a terrible decision because it didn't work (well it did, but...). The onside kick was a great call because it worked.

You can explain it however you want, but if the official spots the 4th-n-2 play correctly, Belichick would have gotten the same exact praise that Payton is getting now. If Baskett didn't try to catch the onside kick with his helmet (obviously didn't have the same helmet polish as Tyree) and the Saints went on to lose, Payton would have been absolutely crucified by the media. That is the hypocrisy. You may be different than everyone else in the world, but I don't recall you (or anyone else) going out of your way to praise a failed result.

"the entirety of the situation" is code for justifying the value of a call by the result. In what way was the onside kick a quality call? The chance of success was at best 50% and the consequence was an almost certain score by the Colts. That means a 7 or 11 point deficit with less than 2 quarters to play. The greatest deficit ever overcome in the SB was 10 points. The Saints to that point were playing reasonably well on defense and hadn't reached the end zone yet. How is that for the entirety of the situation!

I can have it both ways, precisely because I'm not playing the "because it worked" crap.

1.) The success rate of a "surprise" onside kick is much higher than the onside kick at the end of games.

2.) The Saints special teams had noticed that 2 Colts players bailed early on kickoffs and had worked on the play leading up to the Super Bowl.

3.) The Saints' offense had clearly gotten its bearings by the half and would very likely be able to take advantage of the play.

4.) The Saints weren't leading the game with just a couple of minutes left in the game.

The Saints even gave the officials the "heads up" about doing it, so they had the officials ready for the play.

That's why I have no problem with the onside kick. That's why you're completely wrong in your assessment. It's precisely because of the entirety of the situation.
 
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Imagine Brady ever say things like "Bill Bellichick made the call.... it didn't work, It is so disappointing".

Never.

Brady's quotes: "Coach prepared us well... we just did not execute well... I have to play better".

I have never heard Brady refer to Bellichick or another coach, or any other team mate by the full name in discussing a failure or mistake.

Brady is 10x the man that Manning is.
 
I don't agree with what Deus is saying, but I disagree that the onside kick was a bad call. They planned it, they practiced it, the Colts weren't expecting it. I can't pretend to know what the real number percentage chance was but I think it's higher than 50%.

I agree 100% with BB's 4th and 2 call as well, it was the absolute right decision.

I totally agree with you in both cases. My point was it strains a person't credibility to say an unconventional call in a key situation is moronic if it fails and genius if it succeeds.

I don't know what the success rate is for a surprise onside kick, but it probably gravitates around 50%. There are so few of them that it is hard to draw any meaningful conclusion. As you've mentioned, Belichick's decision was based on mostly known factors with his elite QB and offense. Payton's decision relied much more on uncontrollable factors (would the receiving team retreat early? will the ball bounce favorably?) no matter how much they practiced it. Belichick was a mad scientist. Payton was a riverboat gambler. Having a little of both is probably not a bad thing.
 
Imagine Brady ever say things like "Bill Bellichick made the call.... it didn't work, It is so disappointing".

Never.

Brady's quotes: "Coach prepared us well... we just did not execute well... I have to play better".

I have never heard Brady refer to Bellichick or another coach, or any other team mate by the full name in discussing a failure or mistake.

Brady is 10x the man that Manning is.

I agree with you - Brady never has and he most certainly never will - too much class.

Speaking of class, our coach has never singled out a player, no matter what - he simply says poor execution or something like that and the coaches need to coach it better, players need to execute better and HE needs to do a better job all around.

Isn't this fun boys, watching PM implode with the weight of "almost" the greatest around his neck.
 
I can have it both ways, precisely because I'm not playing the "because it worked" crap.

1.) The success rate of a "surprise" onside kick is much higher than the onside kick at the end of games.

2.) The Saints special teams had noticed that 2 Colts players bailed early on kickoffs and had worked on the play leading up to the Super Bowl.

3.) The Saints' offense had clearly gotten its bearings by the half and would very likely be able to take advantage of the play.

4.) The Saints weren't leading the game with just a couple of minutes left in the game.

The Saints even gave the officials the "heads up" about doing it, so they had the officials ready for the play.

That's why I have no problem with the onside kick. That's why you're completely wrong in your assessment. It's precisely because of the entirety of the situation.

1) I don't doubt it, but is the success rate of a surprise onside kick greater than the success rate of Brady on 4th and 2? If we're comparing the two situations, that's what we need to consider.

2) The Saints were no doubt prepared for that situation. Just as I am POSITIVE the Patriots had a play drawn up that they believed was as sure a first down as they can design. If they didn't have something prepared, I doubt BB would have gone for it. The fact that it didn't work doesn't change the confidence they had in the play to start with.

3) And the Patriots defense had clearly LOST it's bearings and the difference between Manning at the 30 and Manning at his own 30 were not as great as they were at the beginning of that game.

4) No, but putting Manning in striking distance to start that drive would likely have meant a 17-6 Colts lead and momentum. It can be argued that that play could have essentially lost the game for the Saints right there, just as much as the 4th and 2 failure could have.

The two plays were both gutsy, but calculated. One worked, one didn't. Those are really the only facts that can be drawn between the two situations.
 
I can have it both ways, precisely because I'm not playing the "because it worked" crap.

That is exactly what you are doing. You are evaluating the situations through your own bias, not just the facts of the situation. The Saints get a favorable assessment because you assume they were thoughtful, completely prepared and in control of the situation. The Pats get an unfavorable assessment because you assume they were reckless, arrogant and unprepared. You can change the adjectives but the point is still the same.

1.) The success rate of a "surprise" onside kick is much higher than the onside kick at the end of games.

True but meaningless in this context. The success rate of any onside kick isn't very good. If it was, teams would be doing it all the time. What is the success rate of a surprise onside kick vs. Tom Brady converting a 4th-n-2?

2.) The Saints special teams had noticed that 2 Colts players bailed early on kickoffs and had worked on the play leading up to the Super Bowl.

Also true. You think the Pats ever practiced converting short yardage situations? You think the Pats watched film on the Colts and knew their tendencies in those situations? There is your bias. The Saints were prepared for the situation and the Pats pulled it out of their arse. BTW, Baskett got to the ball just fine so it wasn't like he was running down the field which the Saints recovered uncontested. So you are giving the Saints credit for noticing a tendency that didn't actually work to their benefit in the game. Again, the outcome was positive so who cares?

3.) The Saints' offense had clearly gotten its bearings by the half and would very likely be able to take advantage of the play.

They hadn't gotten into the end zone in 2 quarters of play. The Pats offense had scored a ton and racked up a boatload of yardage. Yet the Saints offense was rolling and the Pats were falling apart. If the Saints were going so well on offense, why risk an onside kick. Their defense had only given up 10 points and the offense would have gotten 5 drives in the second half anyway.

4.) The Saints weren't leading the game with just a couple of minutes left in the game.

Totally true. But the Pats were coming out of halftime after not scoring a touchdown and only trailing by 4 points. Also totally true. Evaluating which of these situations called for a conventional call and which called for something risky is completely based on your bias.

The Saints even gave the officials the "heads up" about doing it, so they had the officials ready for the play.

What difference does that make? The officials didn't do anything different with that information. All it does is play into your narrative that the Saints were completely in control of the situation. Implying the Pats were not in control of theirs.

That's why I have no problem with the onside kick. That's why you're completely wrong in your assessment. It's precisely because of the entirety of the situation.

But I can do the same "entirety of the situation" with a bias towards the Pats. All it says is that you can justify your opinion by saying it is backed up by your bias and value system. Easy to do and anybody can win by saying their value systems is better. So lets just say I agree that you believe you are right.
 
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1) I don't doubt it, but is the success rate of a surprise onside kick greater than the success rate of Brady on 4th and 2? If we're comparing the two situations, that's what we need to consider.

The stated success rate of all the people who tried to defend Belichick when he made that terrible call was about 60%.

2) The Saints were no doubt prepared for that situation. Just as I am POSITIVE the Patriots had a play drawn up that they believed was as sure a first down as they can design. If they didn't have something prepared, I doubt BB would have gone for it. The fact that it didn't work doesn't change the confidence they had in the play to start with.

The difference being, among others, that the Colts were prepared to defend a 4th down attempt, while it was precisely the LACK of preparedness on the part of the Colts that the Saints exploited. The 4th down play took place after a timeout, called by the Patriots, which gave the Colts plenty of time to get ready.

3) And the Patriots defense had clearly LOST it's bearings and the difference between Manning at the 30 and Manning at his own 30 were not as great as they were at the beginning of that game.

Manning had scored on his previous drive. The Colts drive prior to that had ended in a Patriots interception. 40 yards is 40 yards, and your point makes no sense to me.

4) No, but putting Manning in striking distance to start that drive would likely have meant a 17-6 Colts lead and momentum. It can be argued that that play could have essentially lost the game for the Saints right there, just as much as the 4th and 2 failure could have.

No, it can't be argued such, given that the 2nd half was just beginning.

The two plays were both gutsy, but calculated. One worked, one didn't. Those are really the only facts that can be drawn between the two situations.[/QUOTE]

Yes, other than all the other differences, which were many, the "only" difference was success failure.

However, all the other differences are precisely why one move was smart and the other was not.
 
Don't even bother, Deus is adamant in that he is never wrong. And if you prove him wrong he'll put you on ignore and never respond.

Metaphors, thanks for the points, taking into account everything you've stated, I do believe that the resultant success of the onside kick actually did sway my opinion of Payton's decision to attempt it. I don't think it's as cut and dry as good a call as I did before. Good thought provoking analysis. I still -think- I like the call, but now am not sure how much of that is due to the positive result. It still gives me great joy thinking about the Colts losing that game

PS: If the Patriots didn't trade Seymour then the 4th&2 call would have been brilliant.
 
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That is exactly what you are doing. You are evaluating the situations through your own bias, not just the facts of the situation. The Saints get a favorable assessment because you assume they were thoughtful, completely prepared and in control of the situation. The Pats get an unfavorable assessment because you assume they were reckless, arrogant and unprepared. You can change the adjectives but the point is still the same.

I'm not assuming anything. The Patriots had to piss away a timeout because they weren't prepared and had the wrong personnel ready to go.

True but meaningless in this context. The success rate of any onside kick isn't very good. If it was, teams would be doing it all the time. What is the success rate of a surprise onside kick vs. Tom Brady converting a 4th-n-2?

According to the announcers, the success rate of a surprise onside kick is about 60%. That would be just about the same as the 4th down success rate the Belichick defenders were claiming.

Also true. You think the Pats ever practiced converting short yardage situations? You think the Pats watched film on the Colts and knew their tendencies in those situations? There is your bias. The Saints were prepared for the situation and the Pats pulled it out of their arse. BTW, Baskett got to the ball just fine so it wasn't like he was running down the field which the Saints recovered uncontested. So you are giving the Saints credit for noticing a tendency that didn't actually work to their benefit in the game. Again, the outcome was positive so who cares?

You don't seem to understand what "bias" is as applied, and you don't seem to want to understand the difference between practicing for a specifically known weakness of preparation and practicing a general play for a general situation.

And the tendency clearly worked to their benefit in the game. Perhaps you didn't actually watch the Super Bowl?

They hadn't gotten into the end zone in 2 quarters of play. The Pats offense had scored a ton and racked up a boatload of yardage. Yet the Saints offense was rolling and the Pats were falling apart. If the Saints were going so well on offense, why risk an onside kick. Their defense had only given up 10 points and the offense would have gotten 5 drives in the second half anyway.

Yes, it's true that the Saints looked as if they'd be better able to stop the Colts if given a short field. How that's supposed to mean that the decisions are identical is one for you to try, and fail, arguing. 13-6 isn't a particularly difficult hill to have to climb.

Totally true. But the Pats were coming out of halftime after not scoring a touchdown and only trailing by 4 points. Also totally true. Evaluating which of these situations called for a conventional call and which called for something risky is completely based on your bias.

Again, you seem to be defining "bias" on your own terms. There's no "bias" in understanding that having the lead with 2 minutes to go in the game is better than not having the lead. There's no "bias" in understanding that it's more difficult to score when you've got more distance to cover. There's no "bias" in understanding that it's a lot easier to come back when you've got about 30 minutes to do so than when you've got a minute or less. None of that is "bias", no matter how you try to re-define the word to suit your purposes.

What difference does that make? The officials didn't do anything different with that information. All it does is play into your narrative that the Saints were completely in control of the situation. Implying the Pats were not in control of theirs.

Actually, what it does is show that the Saints made certain that the officials were paying attention so that they'd be more prepared to deal with the type of scrum that so often accompanies onside kicks. Yes, it does imply that the Saints had themselves under better control than a team that had to blow its last timeout because it wasn't prepared.

But I can do the same "entirety of the situation" with a bias towards the Pats. All it says is that you can justify your opinion by saying it is backed up by your bias and value system. Easy to do and anybody can win by saying their value systems is better. So lets just say I agree that you believe you are right.

Yes, you can do the same if you define "bias" in such a way as to make the word irrelevant. All judgment calls involve judgment, after all. However, and apparently unlike yourself on this, I use non-subjective, non-biased information to inform my decision.

If you use "bias" as you're trying to, you insulate every decision, ever made, by anyone, from questioning.
 
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However, and apparently unlike yourself on this, I use non-subjective, non-biased information to inform my decision.

haha non-subjective data and facts like "60% is what belichick backers were claiming" or admitting to using the end result as a basis for your analysis.

And the tendency clearly worked to their benefit in the game. Perhaps you didn't actually watch the Super Bowl?
 
It's time we move on from the 4th and 2. Bill is a gutsy play caller at time...I wish to see our defense play wrecking crew style this coming season. Not point of sitting back and getting picked on all game. Brady did wonders when Titans and Bucs played that prevent defense. When opposing team attacked LOS, his rating went down dramatically.
 
I live in the hope that one day Peyton Manning will do a Tom Brady and come out and say "I didn't execute and that loss is on me". That would be a stretch now wouldn't it.
 
Metaphors, thanks for the points, taking into account everything you've stated, I do believe that the resultant success of the onside kick actually did sway my opinion of Payton's decision to attempt it. I don't think it's as cut and dry as good a call as I did before. Good thought provoking analysis. I still -think- I like the call, but now am not sure how much of that is due to the positive result. It still gives me great joy thinking about the Colts losing that game

Back to the OP, running on that 3rd-n-1 was the "right" call from a certain perspective. You should be able to gain 3 feet when you need to and there was little risk of a killer turnover that could have completely shifted the momentum of the goal line stand. The only reason it is an issue is because it didn't work and the Saints were able to get points before the half. Even if it didn't work and the Colts kept the Saints off the scoreboard, everything would have been just fine since running out the clock was one possible desirable result for the Colts.
 
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