OT: Official 2020 Tompa Bay Gronkaneers Thread

[203Pat]

Arian is 0-4 against Sean Payton as a bucs head coach.Tom,by default, will be at a severe disadvantage.

Arians is an idiot. Brady has been overcoming him most of the year.

 

[Nehalem]

Well all I'm saying is that it has to be looked at in context and taken with a grain of salt.

Personally, I think Heinicke played great. But the context is that he was playing to audition for a starting QB shot. Thus, he was laying it all out and was taking some big hits that a QB shouldn't take if they want to be around for awhile. At the end of the day, he got a separated shoulder injury. That is a bad look when coaches look at durability next year.

For comparison, Brady picks his spot and will just give up on the play to avoid the big hits. However, if it is a big game, playoff, or 4th Q comeback needed, Brady will stand tall and take those hits.

Taylor Heinicke basically looks like a poor man's JimmyG. Maybe a very poor man's JimmyG.

 

[Nehalem]

Arian is 0-4 against Sean Payton as a bucs head coach.Tom,by default, will be at a severe disadvantage.

So you are saying a Bucs win is due!

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Regardless of what happens Sunday the Bucs are set up to be arguably the top contender in the NFC:

• All 5 OL are on contract
• Have the cap space & flexibility to return the same offense
• Tom will likely push for a receiving RB (James White FA)
• 2nd place NFC schedule
• Saints are going to implode with Brees retirement, losing multiple players of the historic 2017 draft class to FA & 90 million+ over the cap
• Packers 20+ million over, Seahawks weak roster, etc.

The defense is what it is & likely will be losing talent as JMT57 suggests. However, there is a case to be made that the offense will follow the 2012 to 2013 Broncos path with another offseason. Pair that with potentially 6 weak division games & they are in good shape IMO.

Their schedule next year is a cakewalk. And without Brees in the division, they are going to win a division title. The key question is which free agents they can bring back.

 

[RicoG]

Brady would be wise to see how Peyton and Elway did it in their later years, which was an elite defense and a dominant running game to take the load off him.

.

With the rule changes, there is almost no such thing as an elite defense anymore just good defences. Bang bang plays usually goes against the defense, even perfectly legal sacks are being called as roughing the passer.

Tampa's D looks bad until you look at the rest of the league, then you realize it is actually good. Compared to the other playoff teams, Tampa's D is average.

 

[RicoG]

Their schedule next year is a cakewalk. And without Brees in the division, they are going to win a division title. The key question is which free agents they can bring back.

I'd argue that they'd have an easier time against NO if Brees came back. He is just a game manager now plus that would scree up their cap.

 

[RicoG]

At first glance Tampa Bay appears to be in great shape for 2021 with $28 million in cap space - but that is due in part to having by far the fewest players of any NFL team under contract (30), and the most free agents (29). Here are some of those free agents; combined they represent about $74 million in AAV.

Unrestricted Free Agents - Offense
TE: Gronk
WR: Godwin, AB
RB: Fournette, McCoy, Barner
QB: Griffin, Gabbert

Unrestricted Free Agents - Defense
DL: Suh, McClendon, Nunez-Roches, McLendon
LB: Barrett, David, Minter (ST)
CB: Cochrell, Smith

Unrestricted Free Agents - Special Teams
K Succop, LS Triner, PR Barner


Some additional cap savings might be realized by extending players in the final year of their contract, but that's assuming they won't want to wait one more year for a possibly better offer. Others in their final year could be cut to save cap space, but then you would still have to go out and spend money replacing them.

Final Year of Contract (AAV)
OL Donavan Smith ($14.2 mil)
OL Ryan Jensen ($10 mil)
TE Cameron Brate ($6.5)
TE OJ Howard ($6.0)
DL William Gholston ($5.5)
P Bradley Pinion ($2.8)

My bets are:
One of Godwin or Brown is gone. I think they will franchise Godwin. I think they will try and keep Brown but someone will offer a contract that is too rich for the Bucs to match.

One of Howard, Brate, or Gronk is gone. Howard is injury prone and him or Brate could get traded. Gronk might retire again.

D Smith might have his cap reduced via extension.

Barrett and Fournette is gone. Fournette if he has another good game might get offered a contract too rich for Tampa. McCoy might stay as he is cheap.

The top draft picks will be used to shore up the defense.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

With the rule changes, there is almost no such thing as an elite defense anymore just good defences. Bang bang plays usually goes against the defense, even perfectly legal sacks are being called as roughing the passer.

Tampa's D looks bad until you look at the rest of the league, then you realize it is actually good. Compared to the other playoff teams, Tampa's D is average.

I don't disagree . In this league the defense needs to at least not be a sieve on 3rd down or red zone.

.

 

[Hyped]

I am so looking forward to Sunday night @ the Superdome....

I just wish that there were Saints fans in the stands....

I hope the Bucs can keep it close and give Tommy and Gronk a chance to pull it out!

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I'd argue that they'd have an easier time against NO if Brees came back. He is just a game manager now plus that would scree up their cap.

If Brees didn't get hurt he'd have 30 TDs and 8 Ints, which is far from being a game manager...

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

I am so looking forward to Sunday night @ the Superdome....

I just wish that there were Saints fans in the stands....

I hope the Bucs can keep it close and give Tommy and Gronk a chance to pull it out!

They gotta play some man. Don’t give their wideouts cushion. Brees destroys zone.

 

[amfootball]

My bets are:
One of Godwin or Brown is gone. I think they will franchise Godwin. I think they will try and keep Brown but someone will offer a contract that is too rich for the Bucs to match.

One of Howard, Brate, or Gronk is gone. Howard is injury prone and him or Brate could get traded. Gronk might retire again.

D Smith might have his cap reduced via extension.

Barrett and Fournette is gone. Fournette if he has another good game might get offered a contract too rich for Tampa. McCoy might stay as he is cheap.

The top draft picks will be used to shore up the defense.

I also think they sign James White and say good-by to McCoy and maybe Fournette too. They keep Godwin as Brady loves him. AB is interesting. Depends what type of market there is for him. He has not made a peep about his contract this year and seems to what to stay hitched to Brady so they may get something done. I think Howard is gone unfortunately. Gronk I think comes back - he stayed healthy all year and seemed very happy playing with Brady again in his new role as a blocker/situational pass catcher.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The game could go either way. The Bucs are peaking right now, but I also believe the Saints are trying win it one last time for Brees. I think the game will come down to which defense plays better. On offense, if the Bucs insist on throwing deep balls it plays right into NO's hands as they have a better secondary than WFT.

I agree. I think the Saints will win, but it isn't because of the Bucs...I think the Bucs will be competitive, and I think they'll continue to only throw deep when it's warranted by matchups.

I think the Saints are the best overall team in the NFL. Not only do they have very few weaknesses, they are incredibly well coached and have won a lot of games this year by being the smarter, more disciplined team that always seems to win the intangibles like personal fouls, getting the other team to jump offsides, etc. They are just totally stacked, and their offensive line is one of the best I can remember in the salary cap era.

Their only weakness is Brees's arm strength not being able to pick up big chunk plays consistently on offense. But the Bucs will be very unlikely to exploit that with their predictable zone defense. I think ultimately the Saints will lose because Brees will finally find himself down 7-10 points with the run game shut down against an aggressive man defense, but it won't be this week.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Their only weakness is Brees's arm strength not being able to pick up big chunk plays consistently on offense. But the Bucs will be very unlikely to exploit that with their predictable zone defense. I think ultimately the Saints will lose because Brees will finally find himself down 7-10 points with the run game shut down against an aggressive man defense, but it won't be this week.

I think Brees is still hurting from his rib injuries. If they can heal up, then they have a shot to win it all.

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

I agree. I think the Saints will win, but it isn't because of the Bucs...I think the Bucs will be competitive, and I think they'll continue to only throw deep when it's warranted by matchups.

I think the Saints are the best overall team in the NFL. Not only do they have very few weaknesses, they are incredibly well coached and have won a lot of games this year by being the smarter, more disciplined team that always seems to win the intangibles like personal fouls, getting the other team to jump offsides, etc. They are just totally stacked, and their offensive line is one of the best I can remember in the salary cap era.

Their only weakness is Brees's arm strength not being able to pick up big chunk plays consistently on offense. But the Bucs will be very unlikely to exploit that with their predictable zone defense. I think ultimately the Saints will lose because Brees will finally find himself down 7-10 points with the run game shut down against an aggressive man defense, but it won't be this week.

I don’t think the saints are that much better than anyone in the nfc. I was surprised the bears hung around in that game. If only they had a QB. This game will come down to coaching and the Bucs playing physical on both sides and not get punked around. The saints will be favorites but all these Bucs players should be looking revenge. They embarrassed the Bucs.

 

[sb1]

For what it's worth - Brady's stats vs NO this year
2 starts 45-74, 60.8%, 448 yards, 2/5 TD/INT 58.8 rating 6 sacks, 6.05 YPA, 1 rush TD, 1 fumble recovery

Totally different team since the 38-3 game though. Win or lose I wouldn't bet on this stats being like that on Sunday.

Also FWIW Brees vs Bucs
2 starts, 44-62, 71%, 382 yards, 6/0 TD/INT 119.2 rating, 2 sacks, 6.1 YPA, 1 lost fumble

 

[TheRainMaker]

My heart wants Tom to beat NO and get Team Bill to sweat, but I just can't see it unless they game plan for short passing plays/run the ball effectively. No more bombs away Tom. NO knows how to get after Brady and they have the secondary to slow down the passing game just enough for the rush to get home. Hendrickson is getting in Brady's head like John Lynch did in '05, Tuck/Osi/Strahan and Rex Ryan Jets D (seeing ghosts game). Defensively, I don't trust their CB's and will get eaten alive by Brees and Co. if they play strictly zone.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

My heart wants Tom to beat NO and get Team Bill to sweat, but I just can't see it unless they game plan for short passing plays/run the ball effectively. No more bombs away Tom. NO knows how to get after Brady and they have the secondary to slow down the passing game just enough for the rush to get home. Hendrickson is getting in Brady's head like John Lynch did in '05, Tuck/Osi/Strahan and Rex Ryan Jets D (seeing ghosts game). Defensively, I don't trust their CB's and will get eaten alive by Brees and Co. if they play strictly zone.

It's a bad matchup for the Bucs but not an unwinnable one. They can't put themselves in a 14 point hole and expect to comeback against a team like the Saints. If they can get an early lead, I think the dynamics will be a lot different from what we saw before. I agree with all of your points, but I'd just counter point that the Bucs are a really good overall team and are 3-point underdogs; homefield advantage doesn't mean much this year. It wouldn't be that big of an upset, objectively speaking. I also think the Saints will win, but a Bucs win wouldn't shock me either.

I believe I saw a stat that 90% of home playoff teams win if they win the turnover battle. Obviously that's absolutely critical here and even one turnover might be too much to overcome.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I was surprised the bears hung around in that game. If only they had a QB.

You could say the same thing about the Bucs and last week's matchup against WFT. Both teams didn't play their best game in the Wild Card.

 

[203Pat]