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XLIX

Pro Bowl Player
For the second time that has nothing to do with the discussion that you jumped in on. I have no interest in debating the subject you are trying to create with me (that is why I do not answer you - hint hint), so let's agree that I need real help and move on.
For someone who doesn't answer me, you've spent a lot of time in this thread.... well, answering me.... hint hint....
 

One-If-By-Sea

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
The models are not always perfect and can be very deceiving. For example, Brees and Mannings QBR and stats are deceiving because they have mostly played in domes at least half the season. When a QB has to play in a snow storm with high wind gusts, that QB is going to have a crap stat line and league bottom QBR for that game. The eye test is important and context is too(which is not taken into account in the QBR model).

We just have to look at Brady in 2019, who looked clearly in the decline with no weapons, to Brady in 2020 with weapons looks close to peak Brady.

Ultimately the best rating for a QB is win/loss, 4th quarter comebacks, playoff appearances, and SB.

Brady has made the playoffs 18 of 19 years as the starting QB and SB 9 possibly 10 in those appearances.

You are jumping into a discussion like @XLIX did. My point was that the QB ratings are math models that are more credible than one individual's observation. We can get emotionally involved in the game and think someone looked better than they actually were (or looked worse than they actually were). Of course the math models are not perfect, but are a good double check on what we saw with our eyes.

In the case of Cam this year I almost always thought he looked worse than his QB ratings indicated. When I see a guy who bounces footballs or has no touch it looks ugly to me, but Cam did OK some games if you look at the final QB rating. My point is that if you look at the QB ratings after the game it helps calibrate your impression. In the case of Heinicke the rating says we was below average. 59% completion, 1 TD, 1 INT, 7 YPA is not good. @PatsWSB47 says he watched the game and saw Heinicke's performance as great and all the sports writers agree with him. I think the QB rating system is helpful because I thought Heinicke looked OK, but the numbers do not back that up. He throws a pick in Q1 and we tend to forget about Q1 picks, for instance, so we can have a more favorable impression than the numbers.

@XLIX wants to argue about how good or bad the ratings are, just like you, so you should talk to him. I could not care less. My point was that "seeing" and saying Heinicke was great and we should bring him into camp is not backed up by the stats or QB ratings. And I would take the QB ratings over someone's subjective opinion.

Some people have a hard time saying the guy looked good but the QB rating is below average, so the guy might not be as good as I thought. Since the Pats released him from our practice squad, I believe the Pat's coaches evaluation and the QB rating.

Heinicke is a great story, probably a nice guy, and I think everything indicates a below average QB, but some PatsFans posters' "eyes" see differently. Given that discrepancy I chose to believe the coaches and the QB rating. You can think differently. You can get upset. Do whatever you want, just don't think I was arguing that math models are perfect or I have any interest in debating algorithms.
 
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Reactions: PP2

PatsWSB47

Pro Bowl Player
Quarterback A can throw a good number of check downs and get a very high completion percentage. He throws 1 touchdown, no picks but goes 0-5 in the red zone and his team loses 28-7to quarterback B that moves his team up and down the field but throws a pick and 2 touchdowns and 7 meaningless incompletions between the 20s. But he moves the chain's pn the next pass anyway. Math geniuses declair quarterback A is better because he has a higher rating to quarterback B. Eggheads. Gotta love em
 
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Nehalem

In the Starting Line-Up
The models are not always perfect and can be very deceiving. For example, Brees and Mannings QBR and stats are deceiving because they have mostly played in domes at least half the season. When a QB has to play in a snow storm with high wind gusts, that QB is going to have a crap stat line and league bottom QBR for that game. The eye test is important and context is too(which is not taken into account in the QBR model).

We just have to look at Brady in 2019, who looked clearly in the decline with no weapons, to Brady in 2020 with weapons looks close to peak Brady.

Ultimately the best rating for a QB is win/loss, 4th quarter comebacks, playoff appearances, and SB.

Brady has made the playoffs 18 of 19 years as the starting QB and SB 9 possibly 10 in those appearances.
Ryan Tannenhill had a high QBrating in 2019 than Tom Brady did in 2007.

I think that tells you all you need to know about QBrating.
 

PatsWSB47

Pro Bowl Player
Arian is 0-4 against Sean Payton as a bucs head coach.Tom,by default, will be at a severe disadvantage.
Indeed. I know a lot of people are dissmissing the Bucs surge after the bye because it was against weak teams. Maybe. I do think the surge wasn't nothing though. Earlier in the year the Bucs lost or struggled a lot with some weak teams. The Giants comes to mind. The offense appears to be miles ahead now. We will see
 

sb1

Pro Bowl Player
His wham blocks are still devastating. We are sorely missing his stellar blocking.

It's always been ridiculous that he has not always been an elite pass-catcher, but also an elite blocker who can stone anyone on the DL.

And still does.
Key player in that run game that surprised the league late in 2018 and helped us win a title.
 

Doctor DDS

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
I think the Bucs are in for a very tough battle as I think the Saints are probably the most balanced team in football. Not necessarily great but they are solid in pretty much all phases and if they are able to get consistent penetration with just 4 then I think the Bucs are in trouble. If they can keep Brady fairly clean I see this as a a 28-27 type game. Hoping Brady can pull it out but I do not have much confidence in that defense making an important stop.
 

RicoG

On the Game Day Roster
Some people have a hard time saying the guy looked good but the QB rating is below average, so the guy might not be as good as I thought. Since the Pats released him from our practice squad, I believe the Pat's coaches evaluation and the QB rating.

Heinicke is a great story, probably a nice guy, and I think everything indicates a below average QB, but some PatsFans posters' "eyes" see differently. Given that discrepancy I chose to believe the coaches and the QB rating. You can think differently. You can get upset. Do whatever you want, just don't think I was arguing that math models are perfect or I have any interest in debating algorithms.
Well all I'm saying is that it has to be looked at in context and taken with a grain of salt.

Personally, I think Heinicke played great. But the context is that he was playing to audition for a starting QB shot. Thus, he was laying it all out and was taking some big hits that a QB shouldn't take if they want to be around for awhile. At the end of the day, he got a separated shoulder injury. That is a bad look when coaches look at durability next year.

For comparison, Brady picks his spot and will just give up on the play to avoid the big hits. However, if it is a big game, playoff, or 4th Q comeback needed, Brady will stand tall and take those hits.
 

RicoG

On the Game Day Roster
I think the Bucs are in for a very tough battle as I think the Saints are probably the most balanced team in football. Not necessarily great but they are solid in pretty much all phases and if they are able to get consistent penetration with just 4 then I think the Bucs are in trouble. If they can keep Brady fairly clean I see this as a a 28-27 type game. Hoping Brady can pull it out but I do not have much confidence in that defense making an important stop.
I think the offense is showing that it is perhaps the best in the league. But because it depends on hitting on the deep ball so much, it could have a down day in which case they would lose.

I can see a Buc Blowout, a NO blowout, or nail biter that can go either way. None of it will surprise me.

If I had confidence in Tampa's coaching like I do with NE coaching, I'd be confident that Tampa will win. Their talent on offense is that good, and their D is better than it is but I believe is being held back by the coaching schemes.
 

TommyBrady12

Hall of Fame Poster
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
I think the Bucs are in for a very tough battle as I think the Saints are probably the most balanced team in football. Not necessarily great but they are solid in pretty much all phases and if they are able to get consistent penetration with just 4 then I think the Bucs are in trouble. If they can keep Brady fairly clean I see this as a a 28-27 type game. Hoping Brady can pull it out but I do not have much confidence in that defense making an important stop.

The game could go either way. The Bucs are peaking right now, but I also believe the Saints are trying win it one last time for Brees. I think the game will come down to which defense plays better. On offense, if the Bucs insist on throwing deep balls it plays right into NO's hands as they have a better secondary than WFT.
 

XLIX

Pro Bowl Player
You are jumping into a discussion like @XLIX did. My point was that the QB ratings are math models that are more credible than one individual's observation.
And that is a faulty point:

1) Models are created by individuals (or groups of individuals)
2) Several QB rating models are not even 100% reliant on math. They rely on individuals making subjective determinations about how a QB plays.
@XLIX wants to argue about how good or bad the ratings are, just like you, so you should talk to him. I could not care less.
For someone who could not care less, you have spent a lot of time addressing my points. But all I have done is correct the mistakes in your statements. I haven't really given any personal opinion regarding which, if any, QB rating systems I like.
 

jmt57

Moderator
Staff member
At first glance Tampa Bay appears to be in great shape for 2021 with $28 million in cap space - but that is due in part to having by far the fewest players of any NFL team under contract (30), and the most free agents (29). Here are some of those free agents; combined they represent about $74 million in AAV.

Unrestricted Free Agents - Offense
TE: Gronk
WR: Godwin, AB
RB: Fournette, McCoy, Barner
QB: Griffin, Gabbert

Unrestricted Free Agents - Defense
DL: Suh, McClendon, Nunez-Roches, McLendon
LB: Barrett, David, Minter (ST)
CB: Cochrell, Smith

Unrestricted Free Agents - Special Teams
K Succop, LS Triner, PR Barner


Some additional cap savings might be realized by extending players in the final year of their contract, but that's assuming they won't want to wait one more year for a possibly better offer. Others in their final year could be cut to save cap space, but then you would still have to go out and spend money replacing them.

Final Year of Contract (AAV)
OL Donavan Smith ($14.2 mil)
OL Ryan Jensen ($10 mil)
TE Cameron Brate ($6.5)
TE OJ Howard ($6.0)
DL William Gholston ($5.5)
P Bradley Pinion ($2.8)
 

patsinthesnow

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Regardless of what happens Sunday the Bucs are set up to be arguably the top contender in the NFC:
  • All 5 OL are on contract
  • Have the cap space & flexibility to return the same offense
  • Tom will likely push for a receiving RB (James White FA)
  • 2nd place NFC schedule
  • Saints are going to implode with Brees retirement, losing multiple players of the historic 2017 draft class to FA & 90 million+ over the cap
  • Packers 20+ million over, Seahawks weak roster, etc.
The defense is what it is & likely will be losing talent as JMT57 suggests. However, there is a case to be made that the offense will follow the 2012 to 2013 Broncos path with another offseason. Pair that with potentially 6 weak division games & they are in good shape IMO.
 

DropKickFlutie

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Regardless of what happens Sunday the Bucs are set up to be arguably the top contender in the NFC:
  • All 5 OL are on contract
  • Have the cap space & flexibility to return the same offense
  • Tom will likely push for a receiving RB (James White FA)
  • 2nd place NFC schedule
  • Saints are going to implode with Brees retirement, losing multiple players of the historic 2017 draft class to FA & 90 million+ over the cap
  • Packers 20+ million over, Seahawks weak roster, etc.
The defense is what it is & likely will be losing talent as JMT57 suggests. However, there is a case to be made that the offense will follow the 2012 to 2013 Broncos path with another offseason. Pair that with potentially 6 weak division games & they are in good shape IMO.

Brady would be wise to see how Peyton and Elway did it in their later years, which was an elite defense and a dominant running game to take the load off him.

.
 

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