Patriots Rumor OT: Maxx Crosby wants to play for Mike Vrabel UPDATE: Breer expects him to be traded this week with the Pats a favorite

[Real fan 02]

There are some news reports out there that Maxx Crosby wants out of Las Vegas in no small part because he hates... Alex Guerrero. If Corsby ends up on the Patriots, Guerrero will be the gift that keeps on giving. I mean, we had a QB and coach breakup over this guy. Also figured into the ownership and coach squabble. And now he's causing turmoil in Vegas?

Apparently, the word is that Guerrero has some authority over their entire training program and is dictating to staff what needs to be done with individual players and also disciplining them when they don't. He is also a conduit to Brady (informant).

Interesting... didn't Guerrero work for BB before he personally worked for TB12??

 

[Triumph]

Honestly kind of glad Brady wants nothing to do with us at this point:

He really went nuts didn't he. Gisele too.

Fountain of youth avocados, TB12 and Deepak Chopra.

 

[The Gr8est]

There are some news reports out there that Maxx Crosby wants out of Las Vegas in no small part because he hates... Alex Guerrero. If Corsby ends up on the Patriots, Guerrero will be the gift that keeps on giving. I mean, we had a QB and coach breakup over this guy. Also figured into the ownership and coach squabble. And now he's causing turmoil in Vegas?

Apparently, the word is that Guerrero has some authority over their entire training program and is dictating to staff what needs to be done with individual players and also disciplining them when they don't. He is also a conduit to Brady (informant).

Maybe we are better off with Brady NOT getting a stake in the Pats ownership.

Maybe Bob does consider TFB to be like a son to him, and sometimes you have to send your son to his room.

 

[203Pat]

He really went nuts didn't he. Gisele too.

Fountain of youth avocados, TB12 and Deepak Chopra.

I always wonder if he is just kind of dumb and oblivious or if he is the snake oil salesman ringleader and recruits other snake oil salesmen. For a while I thought it was the former and he was just a dumb football player who let grifters take advantage of him. Fast forward a decade or so and it seems like it may be the latter. The whole TB12 brand he built with Guerrero (and then somewhat abandoned after he retired for the curiously named "Nobull"), endorsing a crypto scammer, taking Saudi blood money, and tying himself to Fanatics and their garbage.

Maybe he started off naive and Guerrero helped him learn how to sell out and create various houses of cards but either way Brady shills for plenty of less than ethical causes.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Maybe we are better off with Brady NOT getting a stake in the Pats ownership.

Maybe Bob does consider TFB to be like a son to him, and sometimes you have to send your son to his room.

Tom Brady was an elite football player. That does not mean he would/will be good in a front office role. I'm surprised the Raiders have given him all of thos power when he has next to no experience.

 

[Guts]

Interesting... didn't Guerrero work for BB before he personally worked for TB12??

No he helped Willie McGinnest and Willie introduced him to Tom from what I remember

 

[Real fan 02]

No he helped Willie McGinnest and Willie introduced him to Tom from what I remember

Thank you for sharing this! Much appreciated...

 

[upstater1]

Interesting... didn't Guerrero work for BB before he personally worked for TB12??

No. Willie McGinest introduced Brady to Guerrero more than 20 years ago. Guerrero was an LA guy.

 

[upstater1]

I always wonder if he is just kind of dumb and oblivious or if he is the snake oil salesman ringleader and recruits other snake oil salesmen. For a while I thought it was the former and he was just a dumb football player who let grifters take advantage of him. Fast forward a decade or so and it seems like it may be the latter. The whole TB12 brand he built with Guerrero (and then somewhat abandoned after he retired for the curiously named "Nobull"), endorsing a crypto scammer, taking Saudi blood money, and tying himself to Fanatics and their garbage.

Maybe he started off naive and Guerrero helped him learn how to sell out and create various houses of cards but either way Brady shills for plenty of less than ethical causes.

Both BBs and Brady's choices leave a lot to be desired. When you have that much money, you don't need to sell out at all.

Belichick too should have left and taken a year off after 2019. Returned to a much better situation.

 

[Betterthanmost]

Was wondering why Max was so pissed with Brady. Did not know AG went with him to the Raiders. Boy is he going to screw up the Raiders.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Was wondering why Max was so pissed with Brady. Did not know AG went with him to the Raiders. Boy is he going to screw up the Raiders.

I think he's frustrated with the team and doesn't want to play for yet another rebuilding team - he wants to compete now.

But he's been fanning the flames for a trade for quite awhile

His contract is interesting - all front loaded with a $36 million cap hit this season - but no guaranteed salary through 2029 - so perhaps there's a way to spread out this year's guaranteed salary into guaranteed salary over the next 3 years.

It basically looks like a contract extension designed to make a trade easy if they didn't turn things around in 2025.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Both BBs and Brady's choices leave a lot to be desired. When you have that much money, you don't need to sell out at all.

Belichick too should have left and taken a year off after 2019. Returned to a much better situation.

Right - that was his ego talking to him (and his alter-ego who LOVES the spotlight)

After he was let go he wanted to show everyone he was still relevant and in demand by the next season. He really should have waited for the perfect time and opportunity - heck he might have been the preferred candidate for the Giants if he had taken a few years off.

 

[upstater1]

Right - that was his ego talking to him (and his alter-ego who LOVES the spotlight)

After he was let go he wanted to show everyone he was still relevant and in demand by the next season. He really should have waited for the perfect time and opportunity - heck he might have been the preferred candidate for the Giants if he had taken a few years off.

To me, the greatest factor was that his relationship with Kraft was poisoned not only by the Guerrero reinstallment but by Brady leaving & also frank;ly some really weird Kraftian notions (like you shouldn't prepare for what comes after Brady).

If you have a bad relationship with your owner, who had even contemplated firing you after 2017 & only a Super Bowl victory saved your job, then you really should not try to salvage something that is irredeemable. The kind of mutiny and infighting that took place in the last 2 seasons was a result of people with long knives waiting for the nighttime to shiv each other. That's not how you coach a football team, not how you run a football team.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Report: Maxx Crosby, among others, are "frustrated" by the presence of Alex Guerrero with the Raiders

As the Raiders continue to work their way through an unworkable relationship with defensive end Maxx Crosby, it remains to be seen whether they'll give him the trade he wants.

www.nbcsports.com

Alex Guerrero back in the news! What this snake oil salesman has on Brady I don't know.

 

[n1997y]

It’s not that simple. You’re not trying to find the most economical way to pick up and deliver goods to 15 cities.

Great players are hard to come by. Your team is better off paying $35M to a guy who plays with a worth of $30M than you are paying $7M to a guy who performs with a worth of $10M.

The first guy may be less ”optimal” than the 2nd guy but you’re better off with him because he’s simply the better player. This is not a team struggling for cap room right now and the near future looks like more and more cap space will be available.

You seem to confuse a collection of players on the same roster with a team.

A quote from a builder of the Patriots’ dynasties says it well: “It's not about collecting talent, it's about building a team.”

The goal is winning Lombardis, not collecting talent.

 

[Guts]

Report: Maxx Crosby, among others, are "frustrated" by the presence of Alex Guerrero with the Raiders

As the Raiders continue to work their way through an unworkable relationship with defensive end Maxx Crosby, it remains to be seen whether they'll give him the trade he wants.

www.nbcsports.com

Alex Guerrero back in the news! What this snake oil salesman has on Brady I don't know.

Nothing Tom just loves the guy unfortunately lol

 

[p8ryts]

Not satis

Report: Maxx Crosby, among others, are "frustrated" by the presence of Alex Guerrero with the Raiders

As the Raiders continue to work their way through an unworkable relationship with defensive end Maxx Crosby, it remains to be seen whether they'll give him the trade he wants.

www.nbcsports.com

Alex Guerrero back in the news! What this snake oil salesman has on Brady I don't know.

 

[p8ryts]

Not satisfied with ruining the Pats, he is going to add the Raiders pelt.

 

[n1997y]

The NFL is basically a $300mm optimization problem. The teams that generally contend are the ones that get the most production out of that $300mm. The biggest way teams created surplus value is through rookie contracts, especially first and second round picks. Those players can often produce like $15mm-$30mm players while costing a fraction of that. If you trade a 1st and possibly a 2nd or two 1sts (Parsons) and then pay the player fair market value, you are paying both draft capital and fair market value. That usually destroys the surplus value that good teams create. Crosby is a great player, but if he's getting close to fair market value, then trading premium draft picks on top of that creates negative value. Crosby would have to really outperform his fair market value contract to create surplus (and offset the draft capital), which I'm aware is not impossible. You are also concentrating roughly 10% of the cap on one non-QB player which creates meaningful injury and roster construction risk. I believe this is why, in general (yes there are exceptions) teams that consistently contend avoid paying both top draft capital and top market contracts. Unless a team is truely one player away (or player significantly outperforms his contract which is difficult for a non-qb to do when getting $30mm/year) I think these kind of trades usually hurt roster efficiency more than they help.

I understand some of the counter-arguments that elite pass rushers are rare, that many premium picks flop, elite pass rushers can raise the whole defense, some teams have won buy trading for stars (Eagles) and trading away top draft picks (Rams). However, I'm a value guy and believe in value maximization and creating expected surplus value.

If you are trading premium picks and pay market price salaries, you are paying twice.

A good perspective, keeping in mind “most production” is measured in wins not any individual statistics.

You describe one optimization that’s very important. I think there are two others that are equally important.

The first is maximizing synergy. The whole is more than the sum of the parts. Guys who play well together are a value multiplier. Put another way, fielding 11 players who are each $10 million values can be a lot better than playing three guys who are each $30 million contracts along with 8 who are each $2.5 million talents. Those three might put up great individual stats but remember the only stat that matters is wins. A team that creates synergy, that finds players that play well together, optimizes the value of those players.

And that leads to the other optimization: how well each player fits what the team is trying to do. Some players don’t fit a particular system so their individual performance is not stellar, and then there’s a coaching change or they move to a new team and perform better because they’re asked to do different things that better fit their skills and talents. So a very important optimization can be finding those players who are undervalued because of the situation they’ve been in, and recognizing their value after a change in scenery by moving into your roster. We have a great example in Chaisson this year. Or another similar scenario is a player whose value is depressed because they are coming off a serious injury and there’s risk they won’t return to their previous level of performance. We have a great example of that in Diggs. Those situations are tough because often an undervalued player will sign a one year “prove it” deal. Such deals are a short term optimization, but if the player proves their value is higher than the market had previously assessed the cost of re-signing them may be incompatible with roster optimization.

That last introduces another factor: optimizing for short term vs long term timeframes. Win now, or build a dynasty. That’s a very important factor in balancing the decision to trade high draft picks (value for future) to obtain established stars (value for now). Good examples are the debates about acquiring Crosby or A.J.Brown. Either trading or not trading could be right, but it takes three to five years to tell.

Very interesting stuff. Thanks for sharing your stimulating perspective, @silentone.

 

[silentone]

A good perspective, keeping in mind “most production” is measured in wins not any individual statistics.

You describe one optimization that’s very important. I think there are two others that are equally important.

The first is maximizing synergy. The whole is more than the sum of the parts. Guys who play well together are a value multiplier. Put another way, fielding 11 players who are each $10 million values can be a lot better than playing three guys who are each $30 million contracts along with 8 who are each $2.5 million talents. Those three might put up great individual stats but remember the only stat that matters is wins. A team that creates synergy, that finds players that play well together, optimizes the value of those players.

And that leads to the other optimization: how well each player fits what the team is trying to do. Some players don’t fit a particular system so their individual performance is not stellar, and then there’s a coaching change or they move to a new team and perform better because they’re asked to do different things that better fit their skills and talents. So a very important optimization can be finding those players who are undervalued because of the situation they’ve been in, and recognizing their value after a change in scenery by moving into your roster. We have a great example in Chaisson this year. Or another similar scenario is a player whose value is depressed because they are coming off a serious injury and there’s risk they won’t return to their previous level of performance. We have a great example of that in Diggs. Those situations are tough because often an undervalued player will sign a one year “prove it” deal. Such deals are a short term optimization, but if the player proves their value is higher than the market had previously assessed the cost of re-signing them may be incompatible with roster optimization.

That last introduces another factor: optimizing for short term vs long term timeframes. Win now, or build a dynasty. That’s a very important factor in balancing the decision to trade high draft picks (value for future) to obtain established stars (value for now). Good examples are the debates about acquiring Crosby or A.J.Brown. Either trading or not trading could be right, but it takes three to five years to tell.

Very interesting stuff. Thanks for sharing your stimulating perspective, @silentone.

Thanks n1997y. Appreciate your thoughtful response and agree that surplus value or value creation can come from multiple sources and in different shapes and sizes. It's fun thinking about roster construction, especially this time if year.