OT Bears Trade #1 Pick

[Since1960]

Meanwhile over at Indy’s Blog, shouts of “Oh the humanity” can be heard as the Deflategate Curse enters another NFL Season…..

 

[Horace's Ivories]

Panthers just butt fumbled the draft..

 

[Bill Lee]

Wow. Panthers must absolutely love one of the QBs.

Or truly hate Sam Darnold.

To me this reeks of money man Tepper being impatient, wanting some action, throwing caution to the wind.

The bottom line is he just took a huge gamble, one that only pays off if the guy he drafts ends up being a star, and there's so many ways that he won't be.
Drafting players is difficult at least in part because the scouting and evaluating part is the easy part. The more difficult part is developing the players that you drafted. How well players respond to coaching, and to a league where a player’s physical gifts are no longer a major advantage, are part of the factors that are difficult to assess pre-draft. How much work and discipline a player will exhibit after being handed millions can be an issue too.

Player development may also be affected by coaching ability, team culture, and fit in the particular scheme.

And there are other issues too that can impact draft success as well. Injuries. Off-field issues. Five first-round picks (of 14) for the Vikings over the last ten years had their careers derailed by injuries (Matt Kalil, Shariff Floyd, Teddy Bridgewater, Mike Hughes) or off-field incident (Jeff Gladney) that couldn’t have been anticipated in the pre-draft process. That was over a third of the Vikings’ total first-round picks.

And beyond Day One picks, teams are drafting players that have either some flaws, are more raw, haven’t faced top competition, have injury or off-field issues, or some combination of all four. All that leads some of the best drafting GMs, like Eric DeCosta of the Ravens, to say the NFL Draft is a luck-driven process. And that being the case, better to have more lottery tickets than less. Rick Spielman was a firm believer in that philosophy as well, which is also based on the idea that NFL teams undervalue later round picks, and overvalue first round picks, based on the history of draft pick compensation and actual player performance from each draft pick slot.

Ref: NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

 

[Bill Lee]

Not to mention, the Panthers aren't going to be very good next season so the picks should be pretty high, and there probably will be better QB talent next year if the Bears decide Fields isn't the answer.

It was already felt the Bears were planning to give Fields another year, now they got a big haul to do what they wanted to do anyway.

The only problem is Chicago hasn't been very good at drafting.

Oh well, maybe with all the extra picks they'll hit gold.

PS: Maybe they should trade DJ Moore, seems a lot of teams really regard him highly, yet Fields is not a good passer.

 

[rochrist]

Holy **** Carolina are morons I thought DJ/9 was overpay they added next years first and a future second is this amateur hour. Watch them draft the scrub from Florida cause he lit up the combine when his tape sucks

I'd rather have him than Young, who I fully expect to be literally killed on the field before the end of his second year.

 

[rochrist]

They traded 2 first a second and a WR1 nobody is topping that

TWO seconds.

 

[PaulThePat]

This trade kinda works 2 ways for Justin Fields. Firstly he could take it as a boost to his self belief that the Bears have gone all in with him. Secondly it puts enormous pressure on him as, err, the Bears have gone all in with him. Just imagine if the QB taken with the first pick starts balling out straight away while Fields is his recent mix of crazy runs, ints, heaves and sacks. It wouldn't be long before fans would perhaps begin to reassess who really won this trade. Time will tell.

 

[Uptown]

 

[JMC00]

Not to mention, the Panthers aren't going to be very good next season so the picks should be pretty high,

Panthers came within a game of winning that division and that was with an interim head coach most of the season.. Brady is gone, Bucs don't have a QB. Falcons don't have a QB, Saints just got Derek Carr but he isn't really a sure bet.

Panthers could **** around and win that division and that makes the pick in the 19-23 range

 

[nextsuperstar]

Not to mention, the Panthers aren't going to be very good next season so the picks should be pretty high, and there probably will be better QB talent next year if the Bears decide Fields isn't the answer.

This is a good take. Rookie QBs don’t e we in very often. Bengals were already to draft Chase after taking Burrow. Jags drafted number 1 again after drafting Lawrence. Having high draft picks (and high second rounders) after drafting the QB of the future is often a necessity.

 

[farn]

Serious question :

What is the percentage that Carolina, with their recent track record & leadership, in this draft, will get a QB better than Elvis Grbac ? Like 60% ? 50% ?

This isn’t Lebron James. The stupidest nba GM of all time would’ve chosen James. This is ‘here are a bunch of QBs, one or two of them will have a good career. One might be a pro bowler…”

Unless the Panthers hit an absolute HR, I like the Bears to win this trade.

 

[upstater1]

If you compare the trade resources given up for the #1 pick, this is not an overpay from Carolina. If anything, it's an underpay. BUT-- I don't think these QBs are any good.

Levis may eventually turn into something, but he certainly hasn't shown it in college.

CJ Stroud is not nearly the QB that Justin Fields was. I've watched a lot of these guys, and Fields was so much more polished, accurate, a good thrower, in college, not to mention his running ability.

In other words, none of these guys are as good as Justin Fields, so of course Chicago made a good trade.

 

[hornetfb85]

Seems like DJ Moore has been in the league for 8 years. Dude is 25 still.

 

[hornetfb85]

If you compare the trade resources given up for the #1 pick, this is not an overpay from Carolina. If anything, it's an underpay. BUT-- I don't think these QBs are any good.

Levis may eventually turn into something, but he certainly hasn't shown it in college.

CJ Stroud is not nearly the QB that Justin Fields was. I've watched a lot of these guys, and Fields was so much more polished, accurate, a good thrower, in college, not to mention his running ability.

In other words, none of these guys are as good as Justin Fields, so of course Chicago made a good trade.

Bears are counting on the Panthers being awful this year and getting the #1 next year. Then cash in on the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.

 

[Keyser Söze]

A lot to give up when there isn’t that clear cut franchise QB.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Not to mention, the Panthers aren't going to be very good next season so the picks should be pretty high, and there probably will be better QB talent next year if the Bears decide Fields isn't the answer.

It was already felt the Bears were planning to give Fields another year, now they got a big haul to do what they wanted to do anyway.

The only problem is Chicago hasn't been very good at drafting.

Oh well, maybe with all the extra picks they'll hit gold.

PS: Maybe they should trade DJ Moore, seems a lot of teams really regard him highly, yet Fields is not a good passer.

If Fields ends up sucking, and the guy Carolina takes (Howard or Stroud) ends up a lot better, then the Bears lose out big time. It's a risky move for Chicago since Justin Fields is no sure thing.

 

[Pape]

So who would you pick?
Bryce Young, Bama?
CJ Stroud, Osu?
Perhaps a longshot, like Will Levis, Kentucky ?

 

[Bill Lee]

This trade kinda works 2 ways for Justin Fields. Firstly he could take it as a boost to his self belief that the Bears have gone all in with him. Secondly it puts enormous pressure on him as, err, the Bears have gone all in with him. Just imagine if the QB taken with the first pick starts balling out straight away while Fields is his recent mix of crazy runs, ints, heaves and sacks. It wouldn't be long before fans would perhaps begin to reassess who really won this trade. Time will tell.

Yep, it will be a ' or get off the pot' season for Fields.

From the Bears point of view they invested the draft capital and are giving the guy three seasons to show what he can do. It's clear he won't get a fourth if he doesn't become a competent QB, be it his fault or theirs. We see that waiting for development to occur worked out pretty good for BUF with Allen and PHL with Hurts.

From Field's point of view, he's being given three seasons, what more can he ask for? Maybe he could have used more time learning the game like Jordan Love, but that's an unusual situation he is in in GB.

It's a judgement call by the Bears. They must see some things they like, unlike da Jete who moved away from Milfson within two seasons. Maybe the Bears are being too patient, but overall IMO it's not a bad strategy.

Bears are counting on the Panthers being awful this year and getting the #1 next year. Then cash in on the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.

Either that, or they themselves will suck, so they must think that some combination of their draft capital and the Panthers picks will put them in a position to get someone better than Fields, presuming he doesn't get his together this upcoming season.

If Fields manages to get his together, then they have a boat load of picks to build a better team around him, plus DJ Moore.

If Fields ends up sucking, and the guy Carolina takes (Howard or Stroud) ends up a lot better, then the Bears lose out big time. It's a risky move for Chicago since Justin Fields is no sure thing.

OTOH, if Fields sucks the Bears have shown they know how to tank. They haven't hired Lovie Smith so chances are good they won't win a meaningless game at the end of the season. They could quite possibly have #1 overall again, plus all those Panthers picks, plus DJ Moore.

I would say chances are Fields does suck yet again and the Bears pick is in the top 1-4 range next year. That plus the Panthers picks mean they can put together a package to move up, or maybe identify a QB that doesn't require them to move up. Either way they will know they have given Fields every chance to get his together so they won't feel bad about moving on.

I think the Panthers are making the riskier move. It only works if they nail the #1 pick, and history shows that's harder to do than most people think. The Bears have a number of different ways it can work out well for them.

 

[XLIX]

If I’m the Bears, I take Jaxon Smith-Njigba at #9.

 

[Bill Lee]

If you compare the trade resources given up for the #1 pick, this is not an overpay from Carolina. If anything, it's an underpay. BUT-- I don't think these QBs are any good.

Levis may eventually turn into something, but he certainly hasn't shown it in college.

CJ Stroud is not nearly the QB that Justin Fields was. I've watched a lot of these guys, and Fields was so much more polished, accurate, a good thrower, in college, not to mention his running ability.

In other words, none of these guys are as good as Justin Fields, so of course Chicago made a good trade.

I think you make some important points.

All "#1 picks" are not created equal. IMO the Panthers owner is just being impatient and over-paid for the privilege of picking #1 in a bad draft class.

Some QBs take longer to develop. We could see Fields turn it around and become a good QB. This happened for Allen in BUF and Hurts in PHL.

Either way, CHI has a lot of ways for the trade to pay off, CAR must hit on the #1 for it to pay off, and history shows that isn't as easy to do as many suggest.

Many times the best player selected in the first round of a given draft class is NOT the #1 pick.

CAR traded a lot of assets just to make a pick that very well may turn out to be a bust.