offseason/draft thoughts

[patchick]

The Pats are famous for drafting 3 point DE's and converting them to outside backers. heck, even Bruschi was a D end in college. I wouldnt be thinking too long about very many of the backers coming out this year because history shows they just dont draft those guys too high.

I'd disagree with your first sentence. What DEs has BB actually drafted and converted? Tully Banta-Cain, and a half-hearted attempt at Justin Rogers...any others? That's one 6th and one 7th-rounder out of 7 drafts. They're actually famous for not drafting LB candidates at all but signing them as FAs.

IMO, the reason they draft DEs isn't because they prefer that position but simply because the athletes who fit the Pats OLB mold are usually asked to play DE in college. If a guy has the size/speed combo and actual LB experience, so much the better. Examples in that vein include Pierre Woods and their reported round-3 target last year, Bradley. So I'm not about to dismiss Crable just because he plays LB. He's 6'5" 245, comparable to Woods...but faster.

 

[RussFrancis]

I'd disagree with your first sentence. What DEs has BB actually drafted and converted? Tully Banta-Cain, and a half-hearted attempt at Justin Rogers...any others? That's one 6th and one 7th-rounder out of 7 drafts. They're actually famous for not drafting LB candidates at all but signing them as FAs.

IMO, the reason they draft DEs isn't because they prefer that position but simply because the athletes who fit the Pats OLB mold are usually asked to play DE in college. If a guy has the size/speed combo and actual LB experience, so much the better. Examples in that vein include Pierre Woods and their reported round-3 target last year, Bradley. So I'm not about to dismiss Crable just because he plays LB. He's 6'5" 245, comparable to Woods...but faster.

My bad. I broad brushed that a bit, and intended to say they have more of a history of using college DEs in general at LB. Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas were all college DEs. But, Ill go back a little with ya to the Parcells days. Willie McGinnest and Chris Slade were both DEs in college. Both guys were brought in to play 3-4 outside backer. Those are obviously the 2 best examples. Bruschi was a DE, but was converted to an inside backer. As you said, Banta-Cain. Wasnt aware of Rogers. That's a few names. Not an overwhelming history. But a history nonetheless. And more of a history than drafting traditional backers and plugging them in the system.

Theyve shown smart, vet backers are the way to go. No argument there. And Im with you. Id love to see them take a backer with their 1st pick this year because it seems like the most important 'need', if we want to call it that. Dont know a ton about about Crable, but Id say his football IQ will be more important to BB than his size or speed. I dont know much about him, but I dont think I dismissed the guy. I like James Laurinaitis, but he's only a Jr., and from what I hear may not be coming out.

 

[patchick]

Id love to see them take a backer with their 1st pick this year because it seems like the most important 'need', if we want to call it that. Dont know a ton about about Crable, but Id say his football IQ will be more important to BB than his size or speed. I dont know much about him, but I dont think I dismissed the guy. I like James Laurinaitis, but he's only a Jr., and from what I hear may not be coming out.

Yeah, the football IQ element is what makes ILBs in particular a nightmare to draft. It's actually amazing to contemplate: 7 years of BB Patriots drafts, not a single ILB successfully drafted! I really don't think a top-20 pick on an ILB is a realistic possibility, especially since Laurinaitis and Maualuga have both indicated they're staying in school.

But pure athleticism can get a young rush OLB a long way -- just ask Shawne Merriman or Demarcus Ware. Round about combine time I bet we start to see some athletic freaks come out of nowhere to 1st-round status, a la Ware and Kamerion Wimbley.

 

[sebman2112]

Just to update some of my offseason thoughts:

Extend Rosevelt Colvin to lower his cap hit.
Convert Donte Stallworth's bonus money so his 2008 cap hit will be around $4-4.5M.
Release or restructure Kelley Washington.

Resign Randy Moss with the cap space created from the above moves.
Resign Randall Gay, and possibly promote him.

Asante Samuel will get top dollar on the market, and NE will not match, so he's gone. Obviously, I'd like to see him on the Patriots 2008 roster, but this outcome seems most realistic to me.

Hopefully the Cardinals allow Karlos Dansby to hit free agency, and the Patriots go after him. Maybe after playing for the Cardinals he'd like to join the contending Patriots, and join a LB corp that already sports Vrabel, AD, and Colvin, which could take some pressure off him?

Also give Victor Hobson a look. I don't think he'll be expensive, and I'm sure he'd like to move up the food chain.

A vet DB could be signed as well. Maybe that means bringing Chad Scott back for one more year, and maybe they look elsewhere.

Players who could retire:
LB Junior Seau
LB Tedy Bruschi
S Rodney Harrison

Players that could find themselves on different teams in 2008 (including those I've already mentioned):
Asante Samuel
Eugene Wilson
Chad Scott
Mel Mitchell
Kelley Washington


2008 Draft:

First round:
I'd like to see NE trade down, and grab either Kenny Phillips, the best CB available, or Quentin Groves.

[this is assuming Maualuga doesn't come out]

Second round:

Hopefully they'd pick up at least someone's early second in return for the trade down. I'd use that second on Jon Goff (if they don't go LB in the first), if NE's already spent a first rounder on a LB then I'd hope for Antoine Cason to be available. I've watched him play a few times this year, and I think he could fit in with NE's current direction at CB.

With the Patriots own second I'd think about drafting Rashard Mendenhall, if he's available. Maybe they could go OT here as well.


I've got other ideas for later rounds, but that would depend on what they do in the earlier rounds, and it's a little early for me to really project rounds 3-7.
Maybe Jasper Brinkley is an option at the end of round three if he doesn't go back to school, maybe J Leman is an option a the end of round three, or in the fourth, but he'd have to gain weight, while improving his speed....kind of tough.

Bobbie Williams could be an option at Safety in the fifth round.

Spencer Larsen has a nice game, and I was somewhat impressed the few times I've seen him. He also looks bigger than 240lbs which is good. Spencer's speed probably isn't quite at the NFL level though, so I haven't mentioned him much.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Did Dansby sign an extension with the Cardinals a couple of months back?

 

[cstjohn17]

Did Dansby sign an extension with the Cardinals a couple of months back?

Not yet, just talks so far, lets hope the Cardinals tank so he at least hits the market. I am not sure how much interest the Pats would have, the have a lot of offseason question marks.
Seau, Bruschi, Samuel, Gay, Moss, Stallworth, Washington, Wilson, extend Wilfork? extend Maknkins? How to trade out of the top 5?

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=NFL&id=2663

"The Cardinals intend to begin negotiations with LB Karlos Dansby regarding a contract extension next week.

However, Dansby is currently sidelined by a knee sprain and considered out for the next three-to-four weeks. His agent likely knows this isn't an ideal time to begin throwing numbers around and will be in trial for the next two weeks. Dansby was having a monster season before the injury."