Offensive Snap Counts

[DropKickFlutie]

Good analysis in the article link below. A couple notable (and troubling) things to point out:

I'll start with the most problematic stat which is just the simplistic pass/run predictability based on personnel:
12 personnel: 61.8 percent running (21 runs, 13 passes)
11 personnel: 76.9 percent passing (20 passes, six runs)

So basically when they're in 12 expect a run and when in 11 expect a pass. Just like how the OC uses certain RBs with tunnel vision: if a certain guy is in it usually means [run/pass]. They should reduce 11 personnel plays and use even more 12 personnel plays (specifically add and execute more 12 personnel play action passes). It adds to the element of disguise if 12 personnel isn't so obviously a run.

Snaps by player:
Jakobi Meyers: 68
Nelson Agholor: 58
Hunter Henry: 52
Jonnu Smith: 50
Damien Harris: 37
Kendrick Bourne: 29
James White: 26
Gunner Olszewski: 11
Jakob Johnson: 7
Rhamondre Stevenson: 4
Brandon Bolden: 3
Yasir Durant: 1

Overall snaps:
12 personnel: 34 snaps
11 personnel: 26 snaps
21 personnel: 6 snaps
23 personnel: 1 snap
10 personnel: 2 snaps

Hunter Henry was the tight end in “11” on 15 snaps as the only TE, to 11 snaps for Jonnu Smith as the only TE.

Patriots Personnel Report: The two-tight end attack is back

In Week 1, the Patriots showed the world that their offense is back to being run through a two-headed monster at tight end.

985thesportshub.com

 

[Simpelton]

Remember, we've got a rookie under center. Our offense is simplified right now compared to what it will be down the stretch.

Besides, I don't care if they know what's coming, it comes down to what your team can execute. They can know exactly what's coming all night long and if the boys can execute, you'll still win. We didn't lose because the offense was predictable, we lost because a defender managed to get the ball away from our RB in crunch time. If he doesn't lose the football we're talking about an exciting win right now. Don't overthink this.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Remember, we've got a rookie under center. Our offense is simplified right now compared to what it will be down the stretch.

Besides, I don't care if they know what's coming, it comes down to what your team can execute. They can know exactly what's coming all night long and if the boys can execute, you'll still win. We didn't lose because the offense was predictable, we lost because a defender managed to get the ball away from our RB in crunch time. If he doesn't lose the football we're talking about an exciting win right now. Don't overthink this.

All true and good points. But more 12 personnel plays protects our rookie QB even more with 2 TEs, TEs who can adjust their route to block depending on the protection and the defense. Do not want Mac taking 7 hits a game every week and we act like it's fine because he throws for 4000 yards in the year.

Would also want to see a couple more things:
- Those few passes in 12 personnel, I bet Mac's passer rating was excellent out of 12 personnel passes.
- Also curious if it's a predictable tell that whenever Bourne gets snaps, it means pass for sure. This won't be good when defenses figure this out.

 

[Simpelton]

I'm surprised at the fact that there were no 22 sets. We have the horses to make that an attractive option, and we see some 23 but no 22? Bit odd that.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I'm surprised at the fact that there were no 22 sets. We have the horses to make that an attractive option, and we see some 23 but no 22? Bit odd that.

There are other intriguing questions. Like I bet if I looked into how Henry got his catches, not sure if they were mostly out of 12 or 11. Same with Jonnu. Would be way too easy for a pro DC to dicepher and realize our simple minded OC only throws to TEs out of 11 or whatever it is, as one can look into a lot of different angles here.

But you're right. If a minor thing went differently the Pats probably win and people care less about the other stuff that needs to be cleaned up.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Some other good info from Phil Perry.

1. When the Pats were rolling in the 1st quarter they used 12 personnel in 12 of 16 plays. This is what I saw too without counting. They were rolling with 12 personnel and went away from it stupidly in the second half.

2. I had cited earlier Mac took 7 hits but it was actually 9 hits. This is a major problem and they can't keep letting the QB get hit 9 times a game. I would call for a new OC if our most important rookie keeps getting knocked around like this.

Perry's Report Card: Mac deserves high marks for poise under pressure

Despite a tough loss to the Dolphins on Sunday, the Patriots should be encouraged by what Mac Jones showed in his debut. Our Phil Perry hands out his grades for Jones and the rest of New England’s positional groups in Week 1.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[catent]

I do tend to agree that 21 and 22 personnel limits what the offense can do and makes them more predictable. Still, a lot of those i-formation runs end up being successful.

A couple things I'd note: Miami is a big, physical team and we didn't have Trent Brown for the vast majority of the game. Against teams that don't have as good of a front-7, an OL of Wynn-Onwenu-Andrews-Mason-Brown is going to be able to beat a lot of teams up in a phonebooth.

Time/place. Assuming Mac stays healthy and continues to develop, I think we'll see the offense spread the field more and get in a lot more 12. Miami isn't a team you want to play in a phonebooth but since this was literally Mac's first game, I think they were justifiably pretty limited in how much they were gonna put on him.