Offensive prediction

[BobDigital]

Here are the stats I think this offense will produce.

Passing

Maye 26 TDs 12 Ints 4100 yards 310/470 - 101 QB rating.

This year will either show Maye has it or he doesn't. I think there will still be some growing pains and some very questionable interceptions. But overall he takes a good step forward this year with consistency. He won't hit 30 TDs and not be much above a 2/1 ratio. But this will be misleading as he will run a few in himself and get a fair amount vultured by what i think will be a pretty damn good run game. Also notice the lowish attempts. We will probably run more than pass this year.

Rushing

Stevenson 900 yards 200 attempts 7 TDs
Henderson 875 yards 170 attempts 8 TDs
Gibson 450 yards 100 attempts 3 TDs
Larson 300 yards 65 attempts 2 TDs
Maye 300 yards 40 attempts 1 TD

Total 2825 yards (2525 before Maye) 575 attempts (535 before Maye runs) 21 TDs

Henderson takes a bit of a back seat this year as he gets use to an NFL work load. Yes I know 2825 is a monstrous amount. Almost up there with the Eagles, Baltimore and Bills. But we will be running A LOT. The games where we have double digit leads in the 4th may not even see a pass. Because we will be running so much i think there will be enough touches to go around and make people happy, as well as why i think Larson is a virtual lock. The way this team is built we need to plan on a back field which can support 500+ carries. That is asking a lot from 3 guys. It will be a bit more balance than it looks when you remember none of Maye's runs will be designs. He'll do it less on a pure snap average. And you want him to play safe, but that is a part of his game you'd hate to not use.

Receiving

Diggs 1050 yards 8 TDs (assuming 16 games.. missing only 1)
Williams 800 yards 7 TDs (breaks WR curse FINALLY!)
Boutte 450 yards 2 TDs
Douglas 250 yards 1 TDs
Hollins 200 yards 1 TDs

WRs - 2700 yards 19 TDs

Hunter 600 yards 4 TDs
Hooper 250 yards 1 TD

TDs 800 yards 5 TDs

Henderson 350 yards 2 TDs
Other RBs 200 yards

RBs 550 yards 2 TDs

Lots to break down here... the big one being with so many mouths to feed who gets left out? Maye, the offense and how players are just generally playing will favor some guys over others. Diggs, Williams and Hunter will get their targets. That I am am confident in. Next comes Henderson who will see a fair amount of passes. These seems locked in. After that we have our secondary guys of Douglas, Boutte, Hooper and Gibson. All will see reduced looks but will get some. But some will be favored over others. Personally I think Douglas will be 4th WR and feel the worst of it. Hooper gets a reduced amount compared to what he has been use to in the past, but there are clearly 4 guys ahead of him more dynamic with the ball in their hands. Maybe more? Someone is getting their catches dug into. I think Boutte gets off the lightest as him and Maye seem o have something going so he will get his looks.


Anyway, that's my take and i'm sticking too it for now. One thing this exercise did for me is put the WR discussion in perspective. It may matter more who we do or don't keep next year, but for this year it should be a moot point.

 

[manxman2601]

I think Hollins starts the season as WR 2, assuming Diggs is WR 1 so I think you're under estimating him here. It also won't surprise me if Henderson outrushes Stevenson because of his ability to break the long run.

I agree that we're going to be a run orientated offense (another reason for me having Hollins at WR 2).

 

[signbabybrady]

I understand the injury fears but I think it was a huge mistake last year not to design runs for him and I really hope Josh gets creative with him like he did with Cam. I think you have to take advantage of his skill set and you can't play scared.

 

[Boston Boxer]

Disagree with the statement "This year will either show Maye has it or he doesn't." I think this year he will continue to improve, but with a new OC, he is going to need time to adjust. I think we will see what he is as a QB in year 3.

 

[Water Boy]

I see you aren't bullish on Pop this year. That's a major drop in production for him.

 

[BobDigital]

I see you aren't bullish on Pop this year. That's a major drop in production for him.

Someone needs to drop dramatically, multiple people really. Frankly there just aren't enough balls to go around. The top 4 most dynamic players are Diggs, Williams, Hunter, and Henderson. They are getting a certain amount of balls thrown their way no matter what. Assuming health, everyone else becomes a 3rd option at best on most plays. I think Williams is just going to be too good and steps in immediately.

Diggs will demand and should get his. Williams i think catches on immediately. His off the line is too good and can already win at the NFL, hard not to throw to a guy when he open even if he may need polish in other things. Hunter was the leader receiver last year and is here to be a factor. The #3 option is a much better fit for him. Plus with us running so much and the D going heavy how can you not take advantage of that mismatch? Henderson is the best receiving back on the roster most likely. So will get his number called often on those plays.

The argument for the other guys is as follows.

Hooper is a mismatch - But why throw to him when you can design a play for Hunter and other guys are just more dynamic? Remember most every ball thrown Hoopers play is likely a design to go to a TE. And why design a play to him instead of Henry when you can design for Diggs, Williams or Henderson?

Pop is your slot guy - But do you need short yardage guy much when you have a dependable run game and any RB not named Stevenson is a better short yards option possibly, and you see the D cheating up so the area in the slot to attack is a bit crowded?

Hollins offers size - Nearly every WR likely to make this team and contribute not named Diggs (who is 6'1) is 5'11 or under feet and under 200lbs. Hollins is 6'4 220lbs. That could make him an option who gives you something different. But he is one of the worst WR options of the guys likely to make it. I think both Pop and Boutte are better players from a WR perspective. No knock on Hollins but he was brought here for the whole package he brings, some WR skills, STs ability, leadership.

Boutte is probably the best player of the bunch - Add he seems to be Maye's guy and still has room to improve in year 3. Hollins is capped, Hooper is capped. Maybe Douglas can improve a little bit but not as much. But where does he play? Diggs and Williams are more likely to run the routes he tends to run, so how does he get much of any production here even if we assume he is the best of the 2nd tier?

Everyone after the assumed top 4 has arguments for and against that can be convincing but come with 'what abouts'. And while it could just be about a completely even split... USUALLY someone emerges as the guy among 'equals'

Maybe Hooper should get more as the team will bit so hard to leave TEs free. Hollins is just so different from everyone else, how does he not get more looks? Douglas plays a position no one else can play right now and Chism may need some time to grow into. All reasons they could see more production and Boutte could be completely frozen out. Could happen and wouldn't surprise me. I just went with this particular path.

 

[The Gr8est]

No mention of Chism?

I see him possibly taking some of Pop’s targets.

 

[BobDigital]

No mention of Chism?

I see him possibly taking some of Pop’s targets.

He'll get something.. but not listing anyone less than 100 yards projected, just take it away from other people, a few yards here a few yards there. But could he blow this up entirely? Absolutely. I hope he does, if that is the case that shows he can really play.

 

[PatsFan2]

He'll get something.. but not listing anyone less than 100 yards projected, just take it away from other people, a few yards here a few yards there. But could he blow this up entirely? Absolutely. I hope he does, if that is the case that shows he can really play.

Pop Douglas 250yds??

 

[PatsFan2]

He'll get something.. but not listing anyone less than 100 yards projected, just take it away from other people, a few yards here a few yards there. But could he blow this up entirely? Absolutely. I hope he does, if that is the case that shows he can really play.

Don't sleep on Chism III his lateral Quickness is Elite... I expect him to challenge Pop Douglas for Slot opportunities.

 

[stinkypete]

I’m not going to predict individual stats. We have no idea what Josh McD is going to do with those backs on a week by week basis.

I do see big offensive numbers across the board. Nate will produce close to 4500 yards of total offense, close to 30 TD passes, probably 15-20 picks too. The team will up its ppg to the 21-24 range. There will be It will be an exciting team to watch…we’ll be in most games, will have a couple dramatic comebacks, we’ll blow a couple frustratingly, but for the first time since 2017 the offense will be exciting to watch.

The biggest growth I’ll be looking for is a drop in penalties from the OL.

 

[PatsFan2]

I’m not going to predict individual stats. We have no idea what Josh McD is going to do with those backs on a week by week basis.

I do see big offensive numbers across the board. Nate will produce close to 4500 yards of total offense, close to 30 TD passes, probably 15-20 picks too. The team will up its ppg to the 21-24 range. There will be It will be an exciting team to watch…we’ll be in most games, will have a couple dramatic comebacks, we’ll blow a couple frustratingly, but for the first time since 2017 the offense will be exciting to watch.

The biggest growth I’ll be looking for is a drop in penalties from the OL.

Nate??

 

[WinstonSmith]

Your Maye numbers seem a bit low. His per game average last year, when removing the Buffalo game (ceremonial start) and the Jets (concussion in the first quarter) and the games he didn't start, translates to close to 26 TDs for a full season.

With the significant improvements on OL and skill positions, and upgrades in coaching I'd be slightly disappointed if he doesn't crack the 30s.

 

[everlong]

Maye 26 TDs 12 Ints 4100 yards 310/470 - 101 QB rating.

If we're a run first offense, which I agree with, the biggest number I care about for year two is the int%. As much as I liked what he did year one that could have been higher if defenders held onto the ball a few times. A lot of people compare Maye to Josh Allen, I think and hope his style is more like Justin Herbert because I think eventually Allen is going to be like Cam Newton where he took too many unneeded hits in meaningless situations and when he gets into his early 30's we're going to see the cliff. But for this discussion Josh Allen went from 3.8 his rookie year to 2.0 year two. Justin Herbert, with much better weapons than Allen or Maye in year one, had a 1.7 and went up to 2.2 in year two. He also threw the ball a lot more than Allen or Maye with 595 and 672 attempts. If Maye is something like 22-30 TDs, 3000-3500 yards but keeps his picks to 10-ish or under and that pick percentage is more like Herbert I'll be really happy.

 

[mikey m]

I’ll keep saying that I really hope we do not try to go heavy running game and turn Maye into a game manager. 1. I think that’s a poor way to develop a dynamic QB today. 2. I don’t think we have the OL to be legitimately effective and win games doing so. Over the next few years and hopefully beyond, this franchise will go as Maye goes. Sign me up for 550+ passing attempts on the year

 

[TheRainMaker]

This year will either show Maye has it or he doesn't.

This and the same pressure is on Caleb Williams. People on here are acting he's facing a gauntlet and are setting their expectations low. This isn't Peyton Manning in 1998 when he faced all teams in the division twice that made the playoffs and almost half of them made it into the Divisional Round. And what did Manning do in his 2nd season with upgrades? He ripped off 13 wins and leapfrogged the entire division. Maye's team and coaching are much better than last year and their schedule is weak. Jayden Daniels won 12 games and Bo Nix won 10 as rookies. Barring injuries and their draft picks/FA's are duds, expecting 9 wins isn't much to ask in this current weak NFL designed favorably for offensive players like him.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

If we're a run first offense, which I agree with, the biggest number I care about for year two is the int%. As much as I liked what he did year one that could have been higher if defenders held onto the ball a few times. A lot of people compare Maye to Josh Allen, I think and hope his style is more like Justin Herbert because I think eventually Allen is going to be like Cam Newton where he took too many unneeded hits in meaningless situations and when he gets into his early 30's we're going to see the cliff. But for this discussion Josh Allen went from 3.8 his rookie year to 2.0 year two. Justin Herbert, with much better weapons than Allen or Maye in year one, had a 1.7 and went up to 2.2 in year two. He also threw the ball a lot more than Allen or Maye with 595 and 672 attempts. If Maye is something like 22-30 TDs, 3000-3500 yards but keeps his picks to 10-ish or under and that pick percentage is more like Herbert I'll be really happy.

It will be interesting to see how the offense evolves week to week. Maye should have receivers open and reasonable time to throw it, but will he see them? Josh will want long drives, but will he open it up once inside the 40, given the home run hitters we now have? Our run game is improved but I don't see us getting a ton of running TD's, I expect a lot of TD passes. Obviously we need 7 instead of 3, and we have the weapons to do that.

 

[Patsfan1645]

I think this years offense has a good problem in the fact that they have a ton of options for game planning and who is going to get to touch the ball. We dont have a Chase/Higgins type of offense which is fairly one dimensional. Instead we have some guys now that can stretch the field and must be respected. We have some guys that can make plays from the slot. We have two veteran tight ends who are above average and possibly a sleeper UDFA. We don't have a Barkley but we do have a very diverse running back group that can do a lot of different things from pass protection, run between the hashes, getting to the edge and several that are good pass catchers. We have the ability week in and week out to focus on the opponents weaknesses and try to exploit them. If our line gels and starts holding their own this team is going to be just as good on offense as it will be on defense. A lot is still unknown but I see the possibilities and am excited to see what this offense becomes.

 

[BobDigital]

I’ll keep saying that I really hope we do not try to go heavy running game and turn Maye into a game manager. 1. I think that’s a poor way to develop a dynamic QB today. 2. I don’t think we have the OL to be legitimately effective and win games doing so. Over the next few years and hopefully beyond, this franchise will go as Maye goes. Sign me up for 550+ passing attempts on the year

I agree with this. But we are going run heavy. But it won't be as bad as it looks. I think we will run and pass pretty equally most games.. but in the 4th quarter if we have a decent lead... Maye might not pass at all. Of course it goes the other way that if behind we will pass more.

My main issue is that if the run isn't working, the Pats need to be okay getting away from it. Just cause we plan to go pass heavy is no excuse to pound your head against a steel door until you're down 14 in the 4th quarter.

 

[Pape]

Here are the stats I think this offense will produce.

Passing

Maye 26 TDs 12 Ints 4100 yards 310/470 - 101 QB rating.

Total 2825 yards (2525 before Maye) 575 attempts (535 before Maye runs) 21 TDs

Flip those numbers - add 75-80 more passing attempts, drop 80 or so running attempts... the last two full seasons McDaniels was calling an offense, it was about a 550/490 pass/run... I see no reason to deviate from that ratio

This team needs to get the opposing defenses out of the box this year... a run heavy offense is just going to let them keep doing the same... They cannot allow another year of teams stacking against the run... the offense needs to spread it out, and that means passing the ball... They brought in Diggs, time to use him...