Not Mortgaging the Future

[SlowGettingUp]

Pretty much everyone focuses on current cap spending, but that is only part of the picture. It is very easy to push spending into future years by signing long contracts, often with voidable years.

Here's an introduction to "voidable years":

What in the World Are "Voidable Years" and Why Are They Dominating NFL Free Agency?

If you’ve been following free agency lately, you may have noticed the phrase "voidable years" pop up in deals for Tom Brady, Taysom Hill, and other players. So what are these things, and why are teams using them?

www.theringer.com

So it's good to look at the longer term picture - cap space in 2024 and 2025. And what you see there for the Pats is pretty dramatic - they are right near the top in non-spending for those out years (the very top for 2025). Now some of that is because they haven't extended many current players and have a cheap QB, but it also means that they haven't mortgaged the future. Their free agents were also signed on short deals.

All this means if they want to splurge on someone now it is very easy for them to do so. And some other teams have already committed to big contracts for those out years and are going to have a lot less flexibility for the next few years.

Someone actually suggested this is Kraft making Bill leave a clean slate for the next guy, but I don't believe it for a moment. The Pats have historically been averse to pushing out spending, although they did it some in the last two Brady years.

Here's 2024 - Pats 3rd from the top:



And even more dramatic, here's 2025:

NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap

NFL salary cap space estimates for all 32 teams

overthecap.com

 

[TheRainMaker]

Pats are gaining more cap room because they currently don't have anybody to sign to a big contract and that's not a good thing.

 

[NashuaPats]

That just makes me want to use that future cap space now even more. Who to use it on? I guess trade for and extend Jeudy (not giving up a first, though). Give this upcoming season’s offense a chance.

 

[VectorPrime]

The Patriots as currently constituted have no future to mortgage.

 

[Fubby]

Can’t wait for this same post at this time next year after another mediocre season celebrating our huge amounts of 2025 cap space.

All this tells me is we have soo few players actually worth investing long term contracts in. Hooray Patriots!

 

[lancerman]

Pats are gaining more cap room because they currently don't have anybody to sign to a big contract and that's not a good thing.

This. Aside from Marcus Jones and Matt Judon there's really nobody on the team that you can't look around the league and find an instant upgrade hanging around on half a dozen teams. No real stud linemans, no elite QB who borders on average most of the time, Stevenson is good but there are easily 10 guys better than him in the league, our top WR (that we lost) ranks around 30th in the league. The defense has talent but outside of the guys I mentioned, none are must haves.

We have cap space because we can't find guys that force us to make big investments in.

 

[long distance]

This doesn't mean not mortgaging the future lol - this means punting on making team better in FA before crucial year of their young 1st rd QB.
As it stands now that is.
(how much improvement 2023 FA itself had to offer is another Q - although trades are part of FA process)

btw - Patriots are actually currently #1 in Cap Space over next 3 years (2023-2025).
Which means they have no future signed - and that is not really a good thing.

They signed only one 3y contract this FA despite all the cap they have. The rest are basically rentals. That is an L.

One can only hope the cap is used for proactive moves on key homegrown talent asap - but it takes two to tango. The success rate of keeping key home players longer term is not too promising lately. Andrews is the only player on offense that remains in NE beyond his first contract! There are only a few more on D, mostly on lower/mid class contracts (Guy, Wise, Bentley, Phillips, Jon Jones).

Thats a poor roster building card..

ps
piling on cap space is for losers:
cap does not play
team cant be bought / is built over years

-.-

 

[chasa]

140 mil in cap space doesn't mean **** if the players you sign are trash.

Spend now to get proven commodities, or we end up wasting money on aglohor and jonnu again.

 

[Water Boy]

The sad part is that we are probably going to let Onwenu, Duggar, Barmore, Uche and Rhamondre go once their rookie contracts are up because they’ll be “too expensive”.

 

[borg]

Pats are gaining more cap room because they currently don't have anybody to sign to a big contract and that's not a good thing.

The free agent market can plug holes but the reality of this particular talent pool is too often these players are shed by their original team because their warts are too prolific to pay market rate after their rookie contract.
In the FA market, you rarely get what you overpay for.
Agholor.....serial pass dropper
Jonnu.........body moves faster than brain
Judon.......issues setting edge
Henry....blocking
etc
If these players had been drafted by Bill, only Judon would likely see a second contract offer from NE in the vicinity of what he is being paid.

$150 mill to buy other teams' unwanted?
BFD

 

[Wozzy]

Trent Brown is coming off the books next season without an extension. Hunter Henry is going to be a free agent next offseason, so are Bentley, Duggar, Folk, Uche, Jennings, Onwenu... sometimes the biggest signings in free agency are your own players. They could and should extend many of these guys this year... they'll need money and cap space for that.

Accruing a bunch of debt isn't smart, not in life, not in football.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Obviously a lot of this cap space in 2024/5 will be eaten up by extending our own players such as Judon. But there will still a lot left over. And many teams (including notably the Bills) have a lot less flexibility. Thus the Bills have $141 million already on the books for 2026, whereas the Pats have only $1.6 million.
So I'm not saying it's a good thing for the current roster - we could certainly make it a lot stronger than it is now by adding to out-year spend. But it does mean they easily have the ability to make such improvements if they wish.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Agholor.....serial pass dropper

He wasn't that great in Philly and had one decent year in LV. Weird signing.

Jonnu.........body moves faster than brain

This was a horrible overpay making him the highest paid in the league at the time of singing. He was a poor man's Delanie Walker and needed gadget plays to be effective.

Judon.......issues setting edge

We shouldn't be complaining about this as he trades that in for 28 sacks in the last two seasons for the Pats. To help with his December slides, Pats need more help....and I'm talking to Christian Barmore. His diapers need to come off.

Henry....blocking

He's a better TE than advertised in 2022.

Obviously a lot of this cap space in 2024/5 will be eaten up by extending our own players such as Judon. But there will still a lot left over. And many teams (including notably the Bills) have a lot less flexibility. Thus the Bills have $141 million already on the books for 2026, whereas the Pats have only $1.6 million.
So I'm not saying it's a good thing for the current roster - we could certainly make it a lot stronger than it is now by adding to out-year spend. But it does mean they easily have the ability to make such improvements if they wish.

Bill needs to draft better. Aside from maybe Onwenu, there isn't one Patriots player that Bill has to lock up after their rookie contract. If Uche duplicates 2022, he's on the list.

 

[PScottman]

Aside from maybe Onwenu, there isn't one Patriots player that Bill has to lock up after their rookie contract.

I think you have to put Duggar on the list. S/LB hybrids are tough to come by and it's a key role on the new defenses that require the ability to check TEs and play the run. There's still not enough tape on Strange (and there's time).

Barmore is in the key year to make that decision, but would agree right now he's in the "want to, but don't have to" category. Stevenson is also in that category (interested in year two post-Fears - can they continue to churn out quality at this position almost regardless).

 

[TheRainMaker]

I think you have to put Duggar on the list. S/LB hybrids are tough to come by and it's a key role on the new defenses that require the ability to check TEs and play the run. There's still not enough tape on Strange (and there's time).

Barmore is in the key year to make that decision, but would agree right now he's in the "want to, but don't have to" category. Stevenson is also in that category (interested in year two post-Fears - can they continue to churn out quality at this position almost regardless).

Sorry, Dugger doesn't make the list for me. If he were to walk tomorrow, the defense does not fall off a cliff without him.

 

[Hyped]

I am hoping we extend Dugger and Uche ASAP so we have some clarity next FA period.

 

[FCB02062]

Sorry, Dugger doesn't make the list for me. If he were to walk tomorrow, the defense does not fall off a cliff without him.

Dugger is one of the few guys on that defense that actually makes plays - and with the atrocious offense Bill the GM has assembled thus far - the defense is absolutely going to need guys who can make plays and score and / or give the offense great field position. This Patriots team - as currently constituted - has 18 ppg written all over it. Bill the GM has signed no one other than a jag tight end, backup offensive linemen, a #2/3 receiver, and a backup running back. I think even if you add Jeudy or Hopkins to this pathetic group of talent you're lucky to sniff 21 ppg, especially the way Bill the Coach has been managing games more conservatively than Barry Goldwater. Let's run another draw on 3d and 12, lets take a knee with 30 seconds and a timeout....

 

[TheRainMaker]

Dugger is one of the few guys on that defense that actually makes plays

Yes, I agree with that.

 

[rochrist]

He wasn't that great in Philly and had one decent year in LV. Weird signing.

This was a horrible overpay making him the highest paid in the league at the time of singing. He was a poor man's Delanie Walker and needed gadget plays to be effective.

We shouldn't be complaining about this as he trades that in for 28 sacks in the last two seasons for the Pats. To help with his December slides, Pats need more help....and I'm talking to Christian Barmore. His diapers need to come off.

He's a better TE than advertised in 2022.

Bill needs to draft better. Aside from maybe Onwenu, there isn't one Patriots player that Bill has to lock up after their rookie contract. If Uche duplicates 2022, he's on the list.

Duggar

 

[TheRainMaker]

Duggar

No.