NFL Preview: AFC East / Dolphins

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PLEASE NOTE I ACCIDENTLY POSTED DENVER INSTEAD OF MIAMI.. BOTH DOLPHINS AND JETS BELOW!!


Denver Broncos
Team Wins Over – Under 6.5

The new coaching regime didn’t start off on the right foot, but his team may be running by seasons end…

Biggest Story:

Head Coach Josh McDaniels was hired by the Broncos in the offseason after firing the popular head coach Mike Shanahan. McDaniels is a Belichick disciple and served as the Patriots Offensive Coordinator for the past two years. McDaniels led the Patriots to the 5th best overall offensive production in the league last year. McDaniels installed the spread offense in New England, and looks to do the same in Denver. Jay Cutler seemed to be a perfect candidate to lead this team with this offensive philosophy. However, McDaniels knew Matt Cassell was on the market and wanted to bring to the team a quarterback that knew his system. When talks failed, Cutler felt he was disrespected and mistreated during the whole process and he wanted out. Eventually the Broncos gave in to Cutler’s demands even though the Broncos had the right quarterback for the spread offense. Cutler features a big arm and can make any throw. Denver also has great talent at the wide receiver position, including: Brandon Marshall, and the speedy Eddie Royal. This offense was destined to succeed with Cutler at quarterback. Now the question becomes can Kyle Orton take the helm now vacated by Cutler. Orton had a 21-12 Record as a starter. This is a very impressive record; and it demonstrates that he is a competitor and a winner. However, Orton’s individual stats do not tell the same story. Orton completes only 55% of his passes, a number that must improve in a pass friendly spread offense. Orton also has only 3 more career touchdowns than interceptions, 30-27 respectively. Supporters of Orton say stats don't matter, he wins games; however, proponents argue that Orton has been a beneficiary of a good defense. Unless something changes with the Broncos defense, it will be on Orton’s shoulders to win the games as Broncos boasted the 27th overall Defense, including 30th in points allowed.

Off Season Moves:

This is where we give you an analysis of the teams offseason moves. A majority of this information is restricted to free agents and trades. We will rarely cover the draft. It is not our job to “grade” the draft classes. However, it will be included if the player drafted is expected to play a vital role for the team. For a complete list of the teams acquisitions and departures, sign up at Squares Wanted and get the electric copy of the NFL Preview.

Acquisitions:
JJ Arrington, RB; Correll Buckhalter, RB; Jabar Gaffney, WR; LaMont Jordan, RB; Kyle Orton, QB; Chris Simms, QB; Andra Davis, LB; Brian Dawkins, S; Renaldo Hill, S; Darrell Reid, DL

Departures:
Jay Cutler, QB; Erik Pears, OT; Selvin Young, RB; Dre Bly, CB; John Elgelberger, DE; Marquand Manuel, S; Karl Paymah, CB; Dewayne Robertson, DT; Jamie Winborn, LB

Cutler had a career year in 2008. He was the leader a Broncos offense that was 2nd in the league. The loss of Cutler quarterback is a huge loss, and Orton will have to prove he can handle the job. The Broncos have a passionate fan base that will be quick to judge the quality of the job that new head coach Josh McDaniels is doing after replacing beloved Shanahan. Despite all the off season drama, the bright spot of the off-season moves is the mass acquisitions of talented running backs. Denver drafted Knowshon Moreno with the team’s 1st pick, and made three additional off-season moves that brought in JJ Arrington from the Cardinals, LaMont Jordan, and Correll Buckhalter. Denver now has the talent in the backfield to go along with a very talented offensive line.

Buy or Sell: ATS
For each team this season we are comparing the teams 2008 Against the Spread record against our prediction of the teams 2009 ATS Record. If we think the team will IMPROVE against the speard, we will BUY. If we think they will have a worse record against the spread in 09 over 2008 we will SELL.

Buy: Broncos backers got demolished against the spread in 2008 posting a 4-11-1 record. The Broncos will improve against the spread unless something disastrous happens. However, their profitability for the season is still uncertain. Last year the Broncos had the 2nd best overall offense, and still finished with that horrific ATS record. McDaniels cannot improve the offense, but only hope to sustain the same efficiency. The real question is whether the defense can improve. That job will be up to Mike Nolan. The Bronco defense is lacking in just about every area. I would not be putting big money on them covering more than 8 games; However, Buy the Broncos covering more than 4.




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[Kontradiction]

Um, I'm guessing this is a shameless plug for your website. But, if it isn't, this was about the Broncos (obviously) and not the AFC East.

 

[SquaresWanted]

Um, I'm guessing this is a shameless plug for your website. But, if it isn't, this was about the Broncos (obviously) and not the AFC East.

Ha! Thats terrible, Hold On Dolphins Below...

 

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Miami Dolphins
Team Wins Over - Under 7.5 Wins

The Dolphins brought the "WildCat" Formation into the league, is trickery the way to get back into the playoffs?

The story of the 2009 Dolphins is actually the story of the 2008 Dolphins. The Dolphins changed their business model following a 1-15 Season, with the Big Tuna leading the way from the front office. Bill Parcells is a football guy that turned around an ailing franchise, but don't expect him to seize the moment in 2009. The Dolphins are lacking in too many areas to even be considered as a viable candidate to win the 2009 AFC East. There is a significant lack of hype and stories for the Dolphins for this upcoming season. Miami just isn’t there yet. They drafted Pat Williams the West Virginia QB as a WR/ QB to help run their Wildcat formation, but a rarely used formation cannot be the biggest story of the year for this team. Ronnie Brown is coming off of a 916 yard rushing performance is in a contact year, and will be out to prove himself. He has a great opportunity, given that the Dolphins have one of the best OL's in the league. The Defense still has a lot of work to do. Joey Porter had a break out year with his first year in the 3-4. The defensive line is young, and can improve. However the Backfield is lacking; teams with any kind of passing game will be able to have their way against this team.

Off Season Moves:

Acquisitions:
Gibril Wison, S; Eric Green, CB; Cameron Wake, OLB; Jake Grove, C; Jason Taylor, DE
Departures:
Andre Goodman, CB; Renaldo Hill, S; Vonnie Holliday, DE;Samson Satele, C

Overall this Offseason, the Dolphins seemed to improve the team. Jason Taylor is coming back to the Dolphins, and even if it is just for a year, this was a great move. The Dolphins have young, but inexperienced talent on the Defensive Line. The same story goes for the aggressive 3-4 D, Taylor will help fill in some of the gaps and help with missed assignments. Also, the signing of Jake Grove filled the missing piece for what could be one of the best Offensive lines in the game. The addition of cornerbacks Eric Green and first round pick Vontae Davis(cornerbacks is correct, also moved it to the beginning of the sentence for better flow ) will have a major impact on the success of this team.

Buy or Sell: Against the Spread
Sell: The Dolphins went an impressive 9-7 ATS in the 2008 Regular Season. However, as a favorite, they only went 1-5! That is a telling stat that screams this team isn't ready for greatness. The Dolphins are on the right path, but last year they simply overachieved. I would not expect (removed for) this team to better than .500 considering it has glaring holes at WR, and CB. It also has an unproven Defensive Line. If this team gets behind, it will not be able to come back. The Dolphins have to be close to having a chance, and given the strength of this division, they may be behind quite a bit.

 

[SquaresWanted]

Um, I'm guessing this is a shameless plug for your website. But, if it isn't, this was about the Broncos (obviously) and not the AFC East.

Because I made a careless mistake. I will give you Jets too...

We have all 32 teams!

 

[SquaresWanted]

New York Jets
Team Wins Over - Under 7.5 Wins

Biggest Story:

Rex Ryan and Rookie QB have made headlines in the off season, its time to see if they can make it in the win column.

Again with the Coaching? The Jets biggest move was the departure of Eric Mangini and the arrival of Rex Ryan. Ryan is looking to instill the aggressive, blitz heavy defense to the New York squad. He has a lot to work with as you will see in the Off Season moves. This defensive unit is absolutely stacked, and doesn't seem to have a weak spot, on paper. Kris Jenkins had a MVP Caliber year, however as a defensive linemen, he was overlooked. Maybe the story is the year is the offense, or the lack there of. There is a Quarterback battle going on right now between Rookie and highly thought of, Mark Sanchez, and the mediocre Kellen Clemens. Clemens knows the Brian Schottenheimer's offense, and obviously Sanchez will have a learning curve and you never knew if throwing him into the fire will kill his confidence for the future. Plus this team has absolutely no #1 Wide Receiver. This team will struggle offensively, but under Rex Ryan, the coach may be a contender following the recipe the Super Bowl 35 Champions, Ravens. Defense, Defense, Defense.

Off Season Moves:

Acquisitions:
Jim Leonhard, S; Bart Scott, ILB; Lito Sheppard, CB; Donald Strickland, CB

Departures:
Brett Favre, QB; Laveranues Cole, WR; Chris Baker, TE; Eric Barton, LB; Kenyon Coleman, DE; Abram Elam, S; Brett Ratliff, QB

This team has been busy this off season, and I would love to say they significantly improved this Jets team. However, the loss of Lavernaues Coles is a big loss. The management gave into Coles demands, and now they will pay the price without a true number one wide out. Bart Scott will have a major impact on this team. He can provide leadership because he is a product of Ryans aggressive defense, and he is an outstanding linebacker. Notice there was no mention of Favre, he gets enough coverage.

Buy or Sell: Against the Spread
Buy. With a 7-9 record against the spread in 2008, the Jets can slightly improve on this number. The Jets were favored in 11 out of the 16 games in 2008, and they seem to have a better team in 2009. This team has spent the money, the front office is dying for a championship caliber team, and the Jets have a stellar D that can get them to at least 9-7. The Jets also have a fierce offensive line, and a deep stable of running backs. The Jets can control the clock by running the ball, even if opposing teams stack 8 in the box. This could work for the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.