NFL Playoff Picture, Week 12

[jmt57]

Five games last week were between two teams with winning records. In the AFC the Chiefs kept winning while the Colts, Titans and Browns improved to 7-3. The Raiders leapfrogged to the final playoff slot, while losses by Baltimore and Miami placed them just behind on the outside looking in.

In the NFC it appears that Tampa Bay is destined to be a wild card, with New Orleans holding a two-game lead plus the tiebreaker. Green Bay's loss drops them to the #3 slot behind the Rams, and Seattle's victory over Arizona on Thursday put the Seahawks in the #5 spot and drops the Cardinals to #7. The Rams have already benefited from playing four NFC East teams though - they are just 3-3 in their other games - and have a much tougher remaining schedule than either the Seahawks or Packers.

Current AFC Playoff Teams​

1. Steelers (AFC North leader) – 10-0 overall / 3-0 division / 7-0 conference?
Remaining games: vs Ravens (6-4), vs Washington (3-7), at Bills (7-3), at Bengals (2-7-1), vs Colts (7-3), at Browns (7-3)

2. Chiefs (AFC West leader) – 9-1 overall / 4-0 division / 5-2 conference?
Remaining games: at Bucs (7-4), vs Broncos (4-6), at Dolphins (6-4), at Saints (8-2), vs Falcons (3-7), vs Chargers (3-7)

3. Bills (AFC East leader) – 7-3 overall / 4-0 division / 5-2 conference?
Remaining games: vs Chargers (3-7), at 49ers (4-6), vs Steelers (10-0), at Broncos (4-6), at Patriots (4-6), vs Dolphins (6-4)

4. Colts (AFC South leader) – 7-3 overall / 1-1 division / 3-3 conference?
Remaining games: vs Titans (7-3), at Texans (3-7), at Raiders (6-4), vs Texans (3-7), at Steelers (10-0), vs Jaguars (1-9)

5. Titans (First wild card) – 7-3 overall / 2-1 division / 5-3 conference?
Remaining games: at Colts (7-3), vs Browns (7-3), at Jaguars (1-9), vs Lions (4-6), at Packers (7-3), at Texans (3-7)

6. Browns (Second wild card) – 7-3 overall / 2-2 division / 4-3 conference?
Remaining games: at Jaguars (1-9), at Titans (7-3), vs Ravens (6-4), at Giants (3-7), at Jets (0-10), vs Steelers (10-0)

7. Raiders (Third wild card) – 6-4 overall / 3-1 division / 4-3 conference?
Remaining games: at Falcons (3-7), at Jets (0-10), vs Colts (7-3), vs Chargers (3-7), vs Dolphins (6-4), at Broncos (4-6)

Within Two Games​

8. Ravens – 6-4 overall / 2-1 division / 4-4 conference?
Remaining games: at Steelers (10-0), vs Cowboys (3-7), at Browns (7-3), vs Jaguars (1-9), vs Giants (3-7), at Bengals (2-7-1)

9. Dolphins – 6-4 overall / 1-2 division / 3-3 conference?
Remaining games: at Jets (0-10), vs Bengals (2-7-1), vs Chiefs (9-1), vs Patriots (4-6), at Raiders (6-4), at Bills (7-3)

10. Broncos – 4-6 overall / 1-2 division / 4-4 conference?
Remaining games: vs Saints (8-2), at Chiefs (9-1), at Panthers (4-7), vs Bills (7-3), at Chargers (3-7), vs Raiders (6-4)

11. Patriots – 4-6 overall / 2-1 division / 4-4 conference?
Remaining games: vs Cardinals (6-4), at Chargers (3-7), at Rams (7-3), at Dolphins (6-4), vs Bills (7-3), vs Jets (0-10)

Current NFC Playoff Teams​

1. Saints (NFC South leader) – 8-2 overall / 4-0 division / 7-1 conference?
Remaining games: at Broncos (4-6), at Falcons (3-7), at Eagles (3-6-1), vs Chiefs (9-1), vs Vikings (4-6), at Panthers (4-7)

2. Rams (NFC West leader) – 7-3 overall / 1-1 division / 7-0 conference?
Remaining games: vs 49ers (4-6), at Cardinals (6-4), vs Patriots (4-6), vs Jets (0-10), at Seahawks (7-3), vs Cardinals (6-4)

3. Packers (NFC North leader) – 7-3 overall / 2-0 division / 4-2 conference
Remaining games: vs Bears (5-5), vs Eagles (3-6-1), at Lions (4-6), vs Panthers (4-7), vs Titans (7-3), at Bears (5-5)

4. Eagles (NFC East leader) – 3-6-1 overall / 2-2 division / 3-3 conference?
Remaining games: vs Seahawks (7-3), at Packers (7-3), vs Saints (8-2), at Cardinals (6-4), at Cowboys (3-7), vs Washington (3-7)

5. Seahawks (First wild card) 7-3 overall / 2-2 division / 5-2 conference
Remaining games:at Eagles (3-6-1), vs Giants (3-7), vs Jets (0-10), at Washington (3-7), vs Rams (7-3), at 49ers (4-6)

6. Buccaneers (Second wild card) – 7-4 overall / 2-2 division / 4-4 conference?
Remaining games: vs Chiefs (9-1), vs Vikings (4-6), at Falcons (3-7), at Lions (4-6), vs Falcons (3-7)

7. Cardinals (Third wild card) – 6-4 overall / 2-1 division / 4-3 conference?
Remaining games: at Patriots (4-6), vs Rams (7-3), at Giants (3-7), vs Eagles (3-6-1), vs 49ers (4-6), at Rams (7-3)

Within Two Games​

8. Bears – 5-5 overall / 1-1 division / 5-3 conference?
Remaining games: at Packers (7-3), vs Lions (4-6), vs Texans (3-7), at Vikings (4-6), at Jaguars (1-9), vs Packers (7-3)

9. Vikings – 4-6 overall / 3-1 division / 3-4 conference?
Remaining games: vs. Panthers (4-7), vs Jaguars (1-9), at Bucs (7-4), vs Bears (5-5), at Saints (8-2), vs Lions (4-6)

10. Lions – 4-6 overall / 0-3 division / 3-5 conference?
Remaining games: vs Texans (3-7), at Bears (5-5), vs Packers (7-3), at Titans (7-3), vs Bucs (7-3), vs Vikings (4-6)

11. 49ers – 4-6 overall / 1-2 division / 2-5 conference?
Remaining games: at Rams (6-3), vs Bills (7-3), vs Washington (3-7), at Cowboys (3-7), at Cardinals (6-4), vs Seahawks (7-3)

NFC Least​

4. Eagles (NFC East leader) – 3-6-1 overall / 2-2 division / 3-3 conference?
Remaining games: vs Seahawks (7-3), at Packers (7-3), vs Saints (8-2), at Cardinals (6-4), at Cowboys (3-7), vs Washington (3-7)

13. Giants (NFC #2) – 3-7 overall / 3-2 division / 3-6 conference
Remaining games: at Bengals (2-7-1), at Seahawks (7-3), vs Cardinals (6-4), vs Browns (7-3), at Ravens (6-4), vs Cowboys (3-7)

14. Washington (NFC #3) – 3-7 overall / 2-2 division / 2-5 conference
Remaining games: at Cowboys (3-7), at Steelers (10-0), at 49ers (4-6), vs Seahawks (7-3), vs Panthers (4-7), at Eagles (3-6-1)

15. Cowboys (NFC #4) – 3-7 overall / 1-2 division / 3-5 conference
Remaining games: vs Washington (3-7), at Ravens (6-4), at Bengals (2-7-1), vs 49ers (4-6), vs Eagles (3-6-1), at Giants (3-7)

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[jmt57]

One website's take on "those games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the final playoff picture", for each conference. I would have thought the Colts-Titans would be above the Steelers-Ravens in this regard, but I suppose now that Baltimore is on the outside looking in, that makes the Pitt-Balt game more important, based on those parameters.

AFC Most Important Games

The Most Important Games for the AFC are those games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the final playoff picture.

www.playoffstatus.com

The first number is the "importance factor", on a scale of 0-100.
Home team is listed first.

• 100 - - (10-0) Steelers vs (6-4) Ravens
• 90 - - - (7-3) Colts vs (7-3) Titans
• 60 - - - (7-4) Buccaneers vs (9-1) Chiefs
• 32 - - - (0-10) Jets vs (6-4) Broncos
• 32 - - - (7-3) Bills vs (3-7) Chargers
• 27 - - - (1-9) Jaguars vs (7-3) Browns
• 25 - - - (3-7) Falcons vs (6-4) Raiders
• 9 - - - - (4-6) Patriots vs (6-4) Cardinals
• 5 - - - - (4-6) Broncos vs (8-2) Saints
• 4 - - - - (4-6) Lions vs (3-7) Texans
• 4 - - - - (2-7-1) Bengals vs (3-7) Giants

While the Bucs-Chiefs game may be the most anticipated game of the week, it is far from the most important game in terms of the playoff race. Tampa Bay is pretty much locked into a wild card spot, and KC is either going to be #1 or #2 in the AFC. The NFC East is virtually unwatchable, due due to their being in a virtual four-way tie all of their games take on playoff 'importance'.

NFC Most Important Games

The Most Important Games for the NFC are those games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the final playoff picture.

www.playoffstatus.com

• 100 - - (3-6-1) Eagles vs (7-3) Seahawks
• 89 - - - (7-3) Packers vs (5-5) Bears
• 75 - - - (7-3) Rams vs (4-6) Forty Niners
• 66 - - - (4-6) Broncos vs (8-2) Saints
• 50 - - - (3-7) Cowboys vs (3-7) Washington
• 34 - - - (4-6) Patriots vs (6-4) Cardinals
• 31 - - - (2-7-1) Bengals vs (3-7) Giants
• 29 - - - (7-4) Buccaneers vs (9-1) Chiefs
• 15 - - - (4-6) Vikings vs (4-7) Panthers
• 8 - - - - (4-6) Lions vs (3-7) Texans
• 4 - - - - (3-7) Falcons vs (6-4) Raiders

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[1960Pats]

Nothing much has changed since my week 3 playoff predictions.

I'm still hoping that the Indiots and Ratbirds are both eliminated.

 

[jmt57]

Updating the playoff picture after Sunday's games.

AFC
- Titans vault past the Bills, from #5 to #3 with their victory over Indy
- Cleveland moves up to the top wild card spot
- Miami jumps from #9 to #6 after losses by the Raiders and Colts
- Colts drop from #4 to #7 after losing 45-26
- Raiders get blown out, now behind Ravens for last playoff slot
- Patriots move up one spot, from #11 to #10

NFC
- Seattle goes from #5 to #2 thanks to Rams loss to SF
- Gints replace Iggles in the #4 spot
- Rams drop three to #5, Bucs drop one to #6
- Arizona remains at #7 despite their loss to Pats
- A Chicago loss tonight to Green Bay would put the Bears, Vikings and 49ers one game behind the Cardinals

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[Ring 6]

Pretty good chance the Baltimore situation is going to create an extra week added to the schedule, and an 8th playoff team added per conference.

 

[jmt57]

Pretty good chance the Baltimore situation is going to create an extra week added to the schedule, and an 8th playoff team added per conference.

Perhaps.

Now that the Mensa Society at 345 Park Avenue is tipping its toes into a Wednesday afternoon game, I am speculating they will do more of the same in an attempt to finish the season on schedule. Their logic is that playing on Thursday equals four days (Sunday to Thursday), therefore nobody should have complaints with the same time span of Wednesday to Sunday.

Who knows, perhaps this is a trial balloon for the NFL on six days a week (seven once the college football regular season ends).