New Years Predictions

[richpats]

Even Tom Curran said yesterday that there is no way Brady walks away from the game.

With all due respect to Mr. Curran (and yourself), there is only one person that can know that for sure. I don't think this is simply a matter of wanting to walk away or not. I think if Cassel was still under contract in 2009 (at his present cap figure) then this wouldn't even be up for discussion. Brady would get himself to 100% and Cassel would be the #1 until Tom returns (assuming it's not December '09).

Cassel is the wild-card in this whole situation and him proving his worth this season is probably on Brady's mind. I don't think Tom would want to leave the Pats holding the bag at the QB position. If Tom wasn't certain he could play the majority of 2009 at a high-level then he wouldn't leave the Pats with O'Connell (unless KOC is the heir-apparent, which is a whole different discussion).

Cassel represents a proven commodity in the Pats' system. His numbers this year aren't disimilar from Brady's averages from his first 3 seasons (which represent 4 years in the system for both QB's). Of course Cassel does not have the playoff pedigree or can even approach Brady circa '07 but at this point even Brady isn't assured of reaching that level again.

 

[T_Brady12]

Randy Moss scores 25 touchdowns.

 

[Rob0729]

With all due respect to Mr. Curran (and yourself), there is only one person that can know that for sure. I don't think this is simply a matter of wanting to walk away or not. I think if Cassel was still under contract in 2009 (at his present cap figure) then this wouldn't even be up for discussion. Brady would get himself to 100% and Cassel would be the #1 until Tom returns (assuming it's not December '09).

Cassel is the wild-card in this whole situation and him proving his worth this season is probably on Brady's mind. I don't think Tom would want to leave the Pats holding the bag at the QB position. If Tom wasn't certain he could play the majority of 2009 at a high-level then he wouldn't leave the Pats with O'Connell (unless KOC is the heir-apparent, which is a whole different discussion).

Cassel represents a proven commodity in the Pats' system. His numbers this year aren't disimilar from Brady's averages from his first 3 seasons (which represent 4 years in the system for both QB's). Of course Cassel does not have the playoff pedigree or can even approach Brady circa '07 but at this point even Brady isn't assured of reaching that level again.

First, your initial prediction was the Brady would retire, not walk away from the game for a year. Now you are suggesting that Brady steps away for 2009 only. No way would Brady retire to do that.

Second, I don't think Brady would retire just so the Pats could resign Cassel. The guy is a team player, but his base salary is $5 million and he has a roster bonus of $3 million. Why would he walk away from $8 million just to help the team short term. The Pats could easily restructure his contract to save the $4.3 million in cap space they would save if he retired (Brady's cap hit in 2009 is higher than 2010 so the Pats can restructure his contract to push money into 2010 without violating the 20% increase rule). I am pretty sure they cannot spread his dead money over two seasons because of the uncapped year in 2010. So they would have to take 100% of his dead money in 2009 which is over $9 million (I could be wrong here).

Third, if Brady cannot play in 2009, the Pats will likely sign a veteran back up. The Pats would franchise and keep Cassel and renegotiate contracts with Brady and a few others to free up cap room if they decide to keep Cassel for this year. Retiring for Brady will not free up any more cap room than the Pats

If Brady doesn't think he can make it back in 2009, he isn't going to retire. That wasn't your original argument anyway. Brady will likely restructure because the Pats have more flexibility with his remaining money if they are creative that way (if I understand the CBA rules of the uncapped year correctly).

 

[richpats]

First, your initial prediction was the Brady would retire, not walk away from the game for a year. Now you are suggesting that Brady steps away for 2009 only.

*groan*

Tell me where I said anything about Brady stepping away for 2009 only.

 

[MassPats38]

The one consistent statement that seems to be in the media about Brady is he is fiercely competitive, whether on or off the field. Based on that characteristic, it had to be very hard for him to watch a year of his football career slip away because of this injury, and unimaginable that he would walk away from the game at his age. He will be motivated to rehab, and if you know anything about Brady's history you do not bet against him.

Despite all the media misinformation on this injury (reports vary from "his rehab is progressing well" to "his leg is barely attached"), I would bet the farm he is ready to roll next season. Count how many steps Brady takes on a given play. He does not scamper all over the field, so I would find it hard to believe that he is not the same Brady (other than kicking off some rust after a year off). He is not a power running back or a QB like Culpepper, so the likelihood of him being unable to step into a throw, likely the only injury that would make him less effective, is not that high. You do not drive off your leg to do that, you simply shift your body weight.

I do not claim to be a master of sports medicine, but from what seems to be the consensus on Brady, he will be motivated to get his knee in shape and he will succeed in doing so in time for the season.

 

[fair catch fryar]

Patriots secondary leads the league in interceptions, DL leads the league in QB sacks, and Brady wins Superbowl MVP.

 

[Richter]

2009 (off)season predictions? Brady comes back as good as ever, Cassel traded to Minnesota for a first round pick, Mayo wins DPOY, the Patriots draft George Selvie or Everette Brown in the first round and William Moore in the second, Meriweather goes to the pro-bowl, Brett Favre curses us with another season of "manipulate the media" as only he can do, and I repeat as the PatsFans.com Keeper League champion.

 

[Rob0729]

*groan*

Tell me where I said anything about Brady stepping away for 2009 only.

Well, I was giving you the benefit of the doubt that you wouldn't think that Brady would actually retire because he thought he would have to sit out the 2009 season. Maybe I gave you too much credit.

Sorry, even if Brady has to get the surgery over again, I see zero percent chance of him calling it a career. Everyone who knows the guy has said that that is an impossibility and he is more likely going to prove people wrong and be ready for the start of camp in 2009 than even consider retirement.

 

[Kontradiction]

1. Brett Favre actually retires.

2. Pats win the Super Bowl.

 

[richpats]

Well, I was giving you the benefit of the doubt that you wouldn't think that Brady would actually retire because he thought he would have to sit out the 2009 season. Maybe I gave you too much credit.

I gave you too much credit by acknowledging your posts. It's obvious you can't interpret what someone is trying to say in this situation.

 

[Rob0729]

I gave you too much credit by acknowledging your posts. It's obvious you can't interpret what someone is trying to say in this situation.

When you make some sense, I guess I can interpret it. First you say that Brady is not going to risk another serious injury to his knee by coming back. Now you are saying Brady will call it a career so the Pats can resign Cassel because he might not be able to make it back in 2009. Neither seem based in reality.

Brady by all accounts is the ultimate competitor. They are going to have to drag him away from the field in 2009. He may not make it back in 2009, but he won't pack it in. Whether Cassel is back on this team or not has nothing to do with whether Brady retires or not.

If the Pats want to keep both Brady and Cassel and Brady doesn't want to leave the Pats "holding the bag" there is a lot he can do bring his salary cap hit down to the level it would be if he retired without retiring. Brady retiring so the Pats can franchise or resign Cassel just doesn't make sense.

 

[Kontradiction]

When you make some sense, I guess I can interpret it. First you say that Brady is not going to risk another serious injury to his knee by coming back. Now you are saying Brady will call it a career so the Pats can resign Cassel because he might not be able to make it back in 2009. Neither seem based in reality.

Brady by all accounts is the ultimate competitor. They are going to have to drag him away from the field in 2009. He may not make it back in 2009, but he won't pack it in. Whether Cassel is back on this team or not has nothing to do with whether Brady retires or not.

If the Pats want to keep both Brady and Cassel and Brady doesn't want to leave the Pats "holding the bag" there is a lot he can do bring his salary cap hit down to the level it would be if he retired without retiring. Brady retiring so the Pats can franchise or resign Cassel just doesn't make sense.

Brady will make it back in 2009. Whether it will be in Week 1 or not, I don't know. But he's too much of a competitor not to make it back by then.

 

[richpats]

When you make some sense, I guess I can interpret it. First you say that Brady is not going to risk another serious injury to his knee by coming back. Now you are saying Brady will call it a career so the Pats can resign Cassel because he might not be able to make it back in 2009. Neither seem based in reality.

What you fail to realize is that I was using both points to support the same conclusion. I can do that can't I?

Obviously you don't give enough credit to Brady about this situation. He won't let his ego write checks his body can't cash. And he won't put the Pats in a sticky situation just to fulfill his own ego. I have no doubt about this.

 

[Rob0729]

What you fail to realize is that I was using both points to support the same conclusion. I can do that can't I?

Obviously you don't give enough credit to Brady about this situation. He won't let his ego write checks his body can't cash. And he won't put the Pats in a sticky situation just to fulfill his own ego. I have no doubt about this.

Again, why would he retire when he can restructure his contract to achieve the same goal? Why would Brady step down when no one who knows the situation is saying that even if he has the surgery again, that his career is over? How will him stepping down really benefit the team other than give them $4 million of cap space? It isn't like if he steps down, the Pats will get $10 or so million.

Other than Brady doesn't have an ego and he will do what is best for the team, explain how that makes sense for Brady or the Patriots for him to retire and at best take a year away from football, the team, and the training facilities if he decides to unretire in 2010. Why is it in the Pats best interest that the best player in football even if he has to take another year to rehab at least not try to get back for the 2010 season?

I'll bet you $1,000 that Brady will not retire for the sake of the team. I'm will to even put both my money and your money in an escrow account to make sure one of us pays up in several months. It would be the easiest $1,000 I would make all year.

No one is even suggesting Brady is considering retirement nevermind that it is a strong possibilty. All the sources close to Brady says that he expects to be in training camp this upcoming season.

 

[richpats]

Again, why would he retire when he can restructure his contract to achieve the same goal? Why would Brady step down when no one who knows the situation is saying that even if he has the surgery again, that his career is over? How will him stepping down really benefit the team other than give them $4 million of cap space? It isn't like if he steps down, the Pats will get $10 or so million.

So did Tom say he was going to restructure? Did he say that he would come back regardless of a 2nd surgery?

Other than Brady doesn't have an ego and he will do what is best for the team, explain how that makes sense for Brady or the Patriots for him to retire and at best take a year away from football, the team, and the training facilities if he decides to unretire in 2010. Why is it in the Pats best interest that the best player in football even if he has to take another year to rehab at least not try to get back for the 2010 season?

Because if Brady isn't around in 2009 we have to make long-term plans for Matt Cassel, plain and simple. Brady's contract also runs out in 2010 - we have no long-term security at QB if Brady comes into 2010 (or even late 2009) with a year-plus away from the game.
I never even said anything about "unretiring" in 2010- that is something you keep making up on your own.

I'll bet you $1,000 that Brady will not retire for the sake of the team. I'm will to even put both my money and your money in an escrow account to make sure one of us pays up in several months. It would be the easiest $1,000 I would make all year.

Just because you're willing to put up a grand doesn't make your points anymore valid or mine any less valid.

No one is even suggesting Brady is considering retirement nevermind that it is a strong possibilty. All the sources close to Brady says that he expects to be in training camp this upcoming season.

Again, you are stuck in the mindset of what you WANT to happen. You want Brady to come back and frankly so do I. But I understand some realities that you may fail to realize - Brady doesn't need the game as much as we think he should need it. Sure he's a fierce competitor, but what has he left to prove? When he walks into training camp I will believe he's going to start in 2009. Until then I stand by my opinion.

 

[jbb9s]

1. TB comeback player of the year

2. Patriots get 2 seed at 13-3

3. Wilfork will eat more than 207 big macs in 2009

 

[Kontradiction]

So did Tom say he was going to restructure? Did he say that he would come back regardless of a 2nd surgery?

Nobody said Tom would have to restructure his contract and I'm not even sure why that's being brought. As for coming back after a second surgery which simply hasn't happened yet (and his team has flat out denied as well as Peter King), I don't see why not. He was willing to come back after the first one. This one would be less serious and would be more to just remove scar tissue.

Because if Brady isn't around in 2009 we have to make long-term plans for Matt Cassel, plain and simple. Brady's contract also runs out in 2010 - we have no long-term security at QB if Brady comes into 2010 (or even late 2009) with a year-plus away from the game.
I never even said anything about "unretiring" in 2010- that is something you keep making up on your own.

No we don't. We already drafted a quarterback as a long term security blanket for Brady's retirement... Kevin O'Connell. Franchising Matt Cassel simply means that we have a back-up plan for Brady in 2009 should he not be in training camp for whatever reason. Franchising him ALSO means that if Brady is ready to go then we can get draft picks in return for Cassel instead of just letting him ride off into the sunset. Either way, in 2010, the back-up and the future is O'Connell, not Matt Cassel. I fully expect Brady to be back by then, however, and when the time comes to sign and extension.

Again, you are stuck in the mindset of what you WANT to happen. You want Brady to come back and frankly so do I. But I understand some realities that you may fail to realize - Brady doesn't need the game as much as we think he should need it. Sure he's a fierce competitor, but what has he left to prove?

So when did you talk to Brady on the phone or in person where he told you this? That's just pure speculation on your part and has no validity in a debate. At least Rob has sources ("close to Brady", Peter King, etc.). That statement you just made has no credibility other than one time Brady said to 60 Minutes that he feels as if there is a greater plan for him. That was in 2007 and he was still ready to come back in '08 and plans to be back next year himself.

 

[richpats]

So when did you talk to Brady on the phone or in person where he told you this? That's just pure speculation on your part and has no validity in a debate. At least Rob has sources ("close to Brady", Peter King, etc.). That statement you just made has no credibility other than one time Brady said to 60 Minutes that he feels as if there is a greater plan for him. That was in 2007 and he was still ready to come back in '08 and plans to be back next year himself.

Rob's "sources" were guys he claimed were "close to Brady" and Peter King's opinion. How are those credible again? Actually I did think of Brady's 60 minutes interview when I thought about him retiring. And it was in 2005, not 2007.

 

[Frezo]

KO is the game 1 starter.

 

[JR4]

KO is the game 1 starter.

wow ... that's a heck of a prediction if it happens.