My Blueprint for the Defense

[mayoclinic]

5 years, 42m, 20m guaranteed for Eversen Griffen. Looks like pass rushers are going to get paid.

He's not worth it. Not even close.

Lamarr Houston, OTOH ....

 

[zimmy]

I'm not sure where Houston would play for us? LDE? He doesn't seem big enough to be an everydown DT and hold up against the run. And I'm not sure he's a good enough pass rusher to really improve us there either.

I'd rather sign Tyson Jackson/Randy Starks and someone like Jared Allen. Can get a penetrating 3rd down DT later on in the draft if needed.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

I'm not sure where Houston would play for us? LDE? He doesn't seem big enough to be an everydown DT and hold up against the run. And I'm not sure he's a good enough pass rusher to really improve us there either.

I'd rather sign Tyson Jackson/Randy Starks and someone like Jared Allen. Can get a penetrating 3rd down DT later on in the draft if needed.

Agreed. Houston is damn good, but if we're paying for a premium free agent you need an exact fit. Can't throw money at a "we'll get the talent and figure it later" player. That's how you turn into Miami or Buffalo. In our scheme Houston would be an every down DT. Something he hasn't really done.

 

[BobDigital]

I can't believe how much Eversen Griffen.

5 years, 42m, 20m guaranteed he is worth half that. I was hoping for the Patriots to get him for 4 years 17 million 8 guaranteed. That in my mind would be a fair price.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Agreed. Houston is damn good, but if we're paying for a premium free agent you need an exact fit. Can't throw money at a "we'll get the talent and figure it later" player. That's how you turn into Miami or Buffalo. In our scheme Houston would be an every down DT. Something he hasn't really done.

Well we run a 4-3 under now. I don't think you bring Houston in here to be your 'NT' in that scheme, you bring him in to be the disruptive, penetrating tackle. Your NT role would likely come from the ranks of Siliga, Sopoaga, etc. Or perhaps from a draftee that we don't even know about yet.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

Well we run a 4-3 under now. I don't think you bring Houston in here to be your 'NT' in that scheme, you bring him in to be the disruptive, penetrating tackle. Your NT role would likely come from the ranks of Siliga, Sopoaga, etc. Or perhaps from a draftee that we don't even know about yet.

Yeah, but my understanding is that Houston isn't a penetrating tackle. He's a monster defensive end who can shut down half the field against the run and generates very good pressure at LE relative to that run-stopping ability.

Think of an elite defensive shortstop with a solid bat and some pop. That's a very valuable baseball player. You pay him $12 million a year or whatever. But if you move that shortstop to first base... his defensive value craters and his offense is under a microscope.

IMO Houston's ability to stand up a blocker and stuff is wasted if you're telling him to shoot gaps inside, which is analogous to an "offense only" position in this example.

If we're shelling out for a DT I'd rather it be Joseph, who is a natural heir to Wilfork and fits the scheme better in my eyes.

 

[Coach42]

The contracts that are being handed out right now make me hesitant to go after anybody in the first wave. I had a feeling that things might get out of control when stories about the cap being at 160 million by 2016 came out. I'm interested how the teams I consider the "smarter" better run franchises handle this (NYG, GB, Balt, NE)

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm not sure where Houston would play for us? LDE? He doesn't seem big enough to be an everydown DT and hold up against the run. And I'm not sure he's a good enough pass rusher to really improve us there either.

I'd rather sign Tyson Jackson/Randy Starks and someone like Jared Allen. Can get a penetrating 3rd down DT later on in the draft if needed.

Agreed. Houston is damn good, but if we're paying for a premium free agent you need an exact fit. Can't throw money at a "we'll get the talent and figure it later" player. That's how you turn into Miami or Buffalo. In our scheme Houston would be an every down DT. Something he hasn't really done.

Well we run a 4-3 under now. I don't think you bring Houston in here to be your 'NT' in that scheme, you bring him in to be the disruptive, penetrating tackle. Your NT role would likely come from the ranks of Siliga, Sopoaga, etc. Or perhaps from a draftee that we don't even know about yet.

Yeah, but my understanding is that Houston isn't a penetrating tackle. He's a monster defensive end who can shut down half the field against the run and generates very good pressure at LE relative to that run-stopping ability.

Think of an elite defensive shortstop with a solid bat and some pop. That's a very valuable baseball player. You pay him $12 million a year or whatever. But if you move that shortstop to first base... his defensive value craters and his offense is under a microscope.

IMO Houston's ability to stand up a blocker and stuff is wasted if you're telling him to shoot gaps inside, which is analogous to an "offense only" position in this example.

If we're shelling out for a DT I'd rather it be Joseph, who is a natural heir to Wilfork and fits the scheme better in my eyes.

I can't disagree strongly enough that "In our scheme Houston would be an every down DT". Houston would probably be a LDE in the base defense, especially in a 4-3 under scheme, though he can play RDE and can kick inside to DT at times. There's a difference between having versatility and not being an "exact time". See posts #562 and #565 above for a discussion about the 4-3 under LDE role and BB's attempt to find a player with the skill set and versatility to fill it. I personally think both Houston and Mike Neal would bring the kind of skill sets that BB values in terms of their run stopping ability, ability to drop into coverage, ability to generate consistent and effective pressure from either the outside or the entire. Just because Houston's got the size of a DT doesn't mean that he was ineffective as an outside DE - he was playing at a Pro Bowl level for most of this season. I think either Houston or Neal could play much the same role that Michael Bennett played with Seattle this year.

I agree that if you're "shelling out for a DT" that Linval Joseph makes more sense. I love Joseph in that role. But I don't see Joseph and Houston playing the same role at all.

 

[manxman2601]

Greg Peshek is the guy who puts together the metric comparisons for CBs, TEs etc. He's currently doing DTs and tweeted about Aaron Donald:

Charting DTs right now, Aaron Donald making my metrics look ridiculous with the amount of pressures he's generating

https://twitter.com/NU_Gap/status/442821095435939840

 

[mayoclinic]

Greg Peshek is the guy who puts together the metric comparisons for CBs, TEs etc. He's currently doing DTs and tweeted about Aaron Donald:

https://twitter.com/NU_Gap/status/442821095435939840

Not to harp on Donald any more than I've already doing, but I think "pressure" is the name of the game. I want a guy from that 3-tech spot to generate a "ridiculous amount of pressure". That's why I like Dominique Easley as an alternative to Donald.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's a nice read on Pete Carroll and the evolution of some of his defensive concepts:

Who?s Laughing Now? «

I this article is worth reading, not to suggest that we try to duplicate Seattle's formula or convert to a 1-gapping defensive approach, but simply because it has a nice discussion of some of the basic philosophical issues in building a defense.

For another read on the principles of an aggressive "multi-front, attacking defense", see:

http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2014/1/21/5327854/ray-hortons-hybrid-defense-a-primer

 

[patchick]

Not to harp on Donald any more than I've already doing, but I think "pressure" is the name of the game. I want a guy from that 3-tech spot to generate a "ridiculous amount of pressure". That's why I like Dominique Easley as an alternative to Donald.

I have that slip-sliding away feeling about Donald -- that he's simply going to be out of reach, even with a trade. Doug Farrar's latest mock has Tennessee thrilled when he drops all the way down to #11: 2014 NFL Mock Draft: Jadeveon Clowney goes No. 1 to Houston Texans | Audibles - SI.com

Wishing devoutly for a plan B without two bad knees.

 

[mayoclinic]

I have that slip-sliding away feeling about Donald -- that he's simply going to be out of reach, even with a trade. Doug Farrar's latest mock has Tennessee thrilled when he drops all the way down to #11: 2014 NFL Mock Draft: Jadeveon Clowney goes No. 1 to Houston Texans | Audibles - SI.com

Wishing devoutly for a plan B without two bad knees.

Sorry, can't help you.

I have a plan A and a plan B, and that's about it. The knees are part of the package with Easley; I'm not that worried about them, but I understand that not everyone will feel that way. The closest thing to an option C that I could suggest would be Henry Melton, but he's also coming off an ACL injury, and will be much pricier than Easley. (As an aside, it's interesting that the 2 most disruptive penetrating 3-techs in the NFL are coming off of ACL injuries, similar to Easley.)

I personally want a disruptive penetrator who will wreck havoc and have to be accounted for on every play. Donald's that guy. I can't help what's happening with his draft stock. Maybe he'll come back to earth in the 2 months up to the draft, maybe not. If he's within trade up, I would personally go after him. If not, I would go after Easley.

I don't see Ra'Shede Hageman or Stephon Tuitt being a consistent disruptive force the way Donald and Easley can be. Timmy Jernigan and Caraun Reid are excellent all-around players with some disruption capability, but I don't see them as the kind of players that wreck havoc and need to be accounted for; I'm not sure either one will be that much better than Chris Jones as a penetrator.

So I'm stuck with plan A and plan B. Sorry. Any constructive thoughts would be welcome.

 

[patchick]

I personally want a disruptive penetrator who will wreck havoc and have to be accounted for on every play.

...

So I'm stuck with plan A and plan B. Sorry. Any constructive thoughts would be welcome.

I hear you. That's the piece that could have the biggest transformative effect on this defense, and I can't argue that Donald & Easley fill the bill the best out of this draft class. I just don't have a good feeling about it.

 

[mayoclinic]

I hear you. That's the piece that could have the biggest transformative effect on this defense, and I can't argue that Donald & Easley fill the bill the best out of this draft class. I just don't have a good feeling about it.

Why not? If I get one of those 2 guys, I'm happy. I would go after Donald if it all possible, but otherwise, Easley should be available at 29, and probably with a trade back. The only other guy I'd personally really consider right now would be Ryan Shazier.

Tank Carradine went #40 overall to San Francisco last year, after tearing his ACL in 2012. He ran a 4.75 40 at his Personal Pro Day April 20, the week before the 2013 draft, and a mere 5 months out from knee surgery:

Y! SPORTS

Easley tore his ACL in September 2013, whereas Carradine tore his in late November 2012, so Easley will have had almost 2 more months to recover prior to the draft. Easley's camp is already suggesting that his knees will be a non-issue, and he's come back from an ACL tear before, so he knows how to do it. He apparently plans to work out at a personal Pro Day in late April, at which point he will be 7 months out from his injury. If he runs well, we might be wondering if he will be available at 29.

 

[kennyb]

I think it's unlikely bb drafts a small dt. Maybe donald. But how expensive is a DT on the fa market? I'd be wary of drafting a guy who regularly tears acls. Maybe he's congenitally prone to do so. Maybe his muscles are too powerful for his tendons.

 

[mayoclinic]

At this point, with Aqib Talib likely to test free agency, I would consider 2 main options at CB:

1. Re-sign Talib. I don't think it's a given that he gets a huge deal in FA. Rumors are that other teams (including the Redskins) are concerned both about his injury history and about the possibility of his off-field behavior deteriorating outside the structure that the Patriots' organization has provided. Talib may look around, find out that people aren't throwing $10M/year at him, and re-think things a bit.

2. Talib walks. In that scenario, I'd look at Chicago CB Peanut Tillman, Minnesota CB Chris Cook, or ideally both. You might be able to sign both guys for what it would cost to re-sign Talib. Tillman was a Pro Bowl CB only 2 years ago. He should fully recover from a triceps injury, but he's not yet medically cleared, he missed most of last season, and he's 33, all of which should keep his price down. He's 6'1" 200#. Cook is 6'2" 212# which elite athleticism, but has never been able to consistently play to his ability. I think he'd benefit from a guy like Tillman, who is a consummate professional on and off the field. That would give the Pats 2 big CBs to go with Dennard, Ryan and Arrington.

 

[patfanken]

There is no doubt that Talib is a $10MM/yr talent, but his other issues, especially his ability to stay on the field are also very clear. I find it hard to believe that there are teams out there who will give him that a $10MM/yr contract without HEAVY injury safeguards. Just as I find it hard to believe that the Pats wouldn't offer him the kind of contract that would pay him $10MM/yr.....as long as he was healthy.

In the end I think the Pats offer is going to be pretty competitive to the ones Talib will get. EVERYONE is gong to want some kind of injury protection. They would be insanely stupid not to. If Talib's goal is to get the last dollar, then he likely WON'T be here. If its not, he won't have to give up much to stay.

At this point, with Aqib Talib likely to test free agency, I would consider 2 main options at CB:

2. Talib walks. In that scenario, I'd look at Chicago CB Peanut Tillman, Minnesota CB Chris Cook, or ideally both. You might be able to sign both guys for what it would cost to re-sign Talib. I think he'd benefit from a guy like Tillman, who is a consummate professional on and off the field. That would give the Pats 2 big CBs to go with Dennard, Ryan and Arrington.

You make an intriguing case here. I like it. 2 questions.
Where do you see Brandon Browner in this mix? And if we DO sign Talib, do you think we could sign Cook or Browner as well. I'd love to add some more size to our CB position?

 

[Get it shawtaay]

I can't disagree strongly enough that "In our scheme Houston would be an every down DT". Houston would probably be a LDE in the base defense, especially in a 4-3 under scheme, though he can play RDE and can kick inside to DT at times. There's a difference between having versatility and not being an "exact time". See posts #562 and #565 above for a discussion about the 4-3 under LDE role and BB's attempt to find a player with the skill set and versatility to fill it. I personally think both Houston and Mike Neal would bring the kind of skill sets that BB values in terms of their run stopping ability, ability to drop into coverage, ability to generate consistent and effective pressure from either the outside or the entire. Just because Houston's got the size of a DT doesn't mean that he was ineffective as an outside DE - he was playing at a Pro Bowl level for most of this season. I think either Houston or Neal could play much the same role that Michael Bennett played with Seattle this year.

I agree that if you're "shelling out for a DT" that Linval Joseph makes more sense. I love Joseph in that role. But I don't see Joseph and Houston playing the same role at all.

I agree that ideally, we would use Houston as a huge beastly LDE. And then kick him inside on passing downs.

But we're paying Rob Ninkovich 5 mil a year. Do you move him into a sub rusher role? I'd rather have a guy like Joseph who has a clear path to a role that maximizes his skillset.

I do think that Chandler Jones and Lamarr Houston with two penetrating guys playing inside would be a lot of fun.

 

[mayoclinic]

There is no doubt that Talib is a $10MM/yr talent, but his other issues, especially his ability to stay on the field are also very clear. I find it hard to believe that there are teams out there who will give him that a $10MM/yr contract without HEAVY injury safeguards. Just as I find it hard to believe that the Pats wouldn't offer him the kind of contract that would pay him $10MM/yr.....as long as he was healthy.

In the end I think the Pats offer is going to be pretty competitive to the ones Talib will get. EVERYONE is gong to want some kind of injury protection. They would be insanely stupid not to. If Talib's goal is to get the last dollar, then he likely WON'T be here. If its not, he won't have to give up much to stay.

I personally think that the Pats are doing the wise thing: if Talib wants "top dollar", let him go out and see what the market will pay for a top level CB with injury and off-field questions. If someone overpays, so be it. If not, maybe Talib will re-think the role that the team has played in his success. I don't think it's coincidental that Talib's career has flourished with the Pats. He's been the beneficiary of the coaching, the locker room structure, and the team-first approach. He doesn't owe the team anything, but I really think it's in the best interest of his career to stay.

You make an intriguing case here. I like it. 2 questions.
Where do you see Brandon Browner in this mix? And if we DO sign Talib, do you think we could sign Cook or Browner as well. I'd love to add some more size to our CB position?

I don't think Browner will be particularly expensive given his 4 week suspension, risk of a 1 year suspension, age, and questions about whether he fits every scheme. But we'll see how the market plays out. I'd personally let the Talib situation resolve itself, and if Browner is still on the market after the initial feeding frenzy (which I think is highly probable) then I'd make an approach.