My Blueprint for the Defense

[Snake Eyes]

Manx took issue when I said in another thread that BB had been less "consistent" in his drafting since 2010 than Carroll/Schneider, but I think the latter had a clearer vision of where they wanted to go and executed it more consistently.

I think this is a key point.

If a GM is trying to put together a SB team every year they’re probably going to fail horribly because they’ll inevitably mess things up by trying to fit a square peg into a round hole (Tavon Wilson). If one instead has a strategic vision of where you want the team to go you, and you’re not locking into trying to achieve it overnight, you’re free to make the selections that make the most sense.

 

[everlong]

It's not just about adding talent. It's about adding talent that fits.

Your summation was much more complete and more cohesive than mine, well done.

EDIT: I will add in fairness that I thought coming out that Hightower was much more athletic and better in space than he is. It is plausible BB thought the same which still doesn't discount the other inconsistencies.

 

[mayoclinic]

My argument is that the Seahawks defense is one of the top five units I've seen in my 30+ years following the NFL. It's unrealistic to think that any team is going to install the Seahawks system and dominate. Do you think Jacksonville is going to have those results anytime soon?

The answer is the players. When you can put together 3 All-Pros in the same secondary, it doesn't matter which scheme you want to run...you're going to have a dominant defense.

Interestingly, Pete Carroll and John Schneider don't seem to agree with you.

Last year Seattle gave up a lead against Atlanta late in the NFC Divisional round after Chris Clemons tore his ACL. They couldn't generate any effective pressure on Matt Ryan, and he drove the ball down the field despite their having 4 Pro Bowl caliber DBs (Brandon Browner made the Pro Bowl last year). Seattle went out and signed Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in order to rectify that issue, and the results speak for themselves.

No secondary is good enough to stop a top QB with good receiving weapons if you don't generate effective pressure.

 

[manxman2601]

Manx took issue when I said in another thread that BB had been less "consistent" in his drafting since 2010 than Carroll/Schneider, but I think the latter had a clearer vision of where they wanted to go and executed it more consistently.

So let's time capsule back to 2010:

Seattle:

The Seahawks have just hired Pete Carroll as their head coach and John Schneider as GM. The team made it to the SB in 2005 after a 13-3 season, but had fallen on hard times, and was coming off consecutive lousy seasons (4-12 in 2008, 5-11 in 2009). They were fortunate in that they inherited two top 15 draft picks (#6 and #14) from their predecessors. As far as I can tell, they sat down and pretty quickly agreed on a vision for where they wanted the team to evolve on both offense and defense, how the existing roster talent fit into that vision, and where to remedy the deficiencies in FA and the draft. They may have been lucky that Pete Carroll's old ideas happened to fit so well, and they may have had some luck on how the draft fell and some of their draft choices, but they had a clear and decisive vision and executed to it:

- The used their top 2 draft picks on a franchise LT and a defensive QB/captain in Russell Okong and Earl Thomas.

- They drafted big, physical DBs in Walter Thurmond and Kam Chancellor (2010 4th and 5th round picks), followed by Richard Sherman, Mark Legree and Byron Maxwell (2011 5th, 5th and 6th round picks), Jeremy Lane and Winston Guy (2012 5th rounds picks) and Tharold Simon (2013 5th round pick), plus signing 6'4" 221# Brandon Browner out of Canada in 2011. Obviously not all of those guys worked out, but they didn't have too.

- They traded for a Leo-type player in Chris Clemons (2010), and drafted another in Bruce Irvin (2012).

- They loaded up on fast, aggressive LBs and 4-3 DEs who could play multiple roles.

Again, they had nowhere near 100% success rate, and they churned the roster several times, but they aggressively dumped everyone who didn't fit (including 2009 #4 overall pick Aaron Curry). The only significant defensive players still on the roster drafted before 2010 are Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant.

Regardless of whether they had won the SB or not this year, I think it was obvious by last year that they had a championship-caliber defense.

New England:

In 2010 the Pats were coming off a disappointing 2009 season, in which the return of Tom Brady was spoiled by poor team chemistry and a lack of leadership and toughness. BB took a hatchet to the team in the off-season, jettisoning a lot of veterans.

In the 2010 draft it seems that BB wasn't clear about a move away from a 3-4 base, because he bypassed 4-3 DEs like Carlos Dunlap and Greg Hardy in favor of Jermaine Cunningham, as well as more mobile MLBs like Sean Lee, Daryl Washington and Navorro Bowman in favor of a 3-4 thumper like Brandon Spikes. He drafted Devin McCourty at CB at 27, having spent 1st or 2nd round picks on DBs in 2007 (Brandon Meriweather), 2008 (Terrance Wheatley, plus a 4th on Jonathan Wilhite), 2009 (Patrick Chung, Darius Butler). All the the CB picks had been on smaller, less physical guys, even though the best CB on the roster in 2009 had been 6'1" Leigh Bodden, who the Pats had signed to a 4 year extension.

By 2011 BB seems to have been more clear about a move away from a 3-4 base, as he bypassed guys like Cameron Jordan and Muhammad Wilkerson - I can't fault the choice of Nate Solder at #17. I don't even mind the choice of Ras-I Dowling at #33 if BB had decided that bigger and more physical was the way to go at CB, even though in retrospect he turned out not to be a good choice. It makes sense from this perspective as well that he passed on guys like Justin Houston. By training camp 2011 BB was tinkering with a 4-3 under scheme, and he was bringing more physical cover safeties like Dashon Goldson in for a look (he let Goldson re-sign to a 1 year deal with San Francisco). 3 weeks later BB scrapped the safety position, cutting both James Sanders and Brandon Meriweather; Leigh Bodden didn't come back effectively from IR and was cut, as was Darius Butler.

So in 2012, with a relative paucity of draft picks but 2 first and 2 2nd round choices what does BB do? He trades up for Chandler Jones, a guy who is clear departure from the 3-4 mold. And then, he has 2 options:

A) Trade up to get safety Harrison Smith, who probably won't last to #31 since Mark Barron went #7 overall and there aren't any more top safeties on the table; then take a speedy versatile LB at 48 like Lavonte David, Bobby Wagner, or Zach Brown. Trade back from 62 and get some more picks, and maybe pick up some guys once considered day 1-2 talents who are in free fall like Alfonzo Dennard and Vontaze Burfict.

B) Trade up to take another 3-4 thumper LB like Dont'a Hightower who is a questionable fit in a 4-3 and somewhat redundant with Brandon Spikes, then reach for a safety at 48, losing out on a more mobile LB who can help cover the middle of the field.

To me it's inconsistant to choose option B. If we had picked option A, then we could have taken a DT like Brandon Williams at #93 in 2013 to groom behind Wilfork, and maybe used #235 on a moon shot athletic freak like Lawrence Okoye to groom behind Tommy Kelly. Those would have been decisive, consistent moves.

There's no crying over spilt milk, but I think that BB has definitely suffered from a "mixed" approach in his defensive draft selections, and it has slowed down the development of the defense.

It's not just about adding talent. It's about adding talent that fits.

Three consecutive AFCCG. The talent fits pretty damn well.

 

[mayoclinic]

Absolutely. This past couple of weeks it seems like there's nothing redeeming about this Patriot team. We were one game away...again... But this seems to have been forgotten in the rush to throw the team under the bus.

No, not throw it under the bus. Make it better. Isn't that what the offseason is all about?

Houston was a few games away last year, and they were SB favorites of a lot of people going into 2013. They ended up with the #1 pick in the draft.

As ESPN's Tania Ganguly succinctly noted during Houston's free fall after they released Ed Reed (brought in to help "get them over the hump"): "The truth is, no team is ever just a few players away from a championship. Each season starts anew."

Houston Texans admit a mistake by releasing Ed Reed - ESPN

BB, who talks about "climbing the mountain" from afresh each season, would probably agree.

"Standing pat" = going backwards. Evolve, or become extinct.

 

[mayoclinic]

Three consecutive AFCCG. The talent fits pretty damn well.

So what? San Francisco has made it to 3 consecutive AFCCG's, mostly on the success of their defense, and had one of the top 2 defenses in the league the past 2 years, but that didn't stop them from using their top 2 draft picks (#18 and 40, with a trade up to 18) on defensive players. Seattle had a top 2 defense last year - would they have won a Lombardi last year if they had stood pat and not gone out and gotten Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett? Not clear.

Moving forward is not an indictment of the past. The worst mistake we could make would be to think that about how good we could have been, and not look at how to make us better.

 

[manxman2601]

No, not throw it under the bus. Make it better. Isn't that what the offseason is all about?

Houston was a few games away last year, and they were SB favorites of a lot of people going into 2013. They ended up with the #1 pick in the draft.

As ESPN's Tania Ganguly succinctly noted during Houston's free fall after they released Ed Reed (brought in to help "get them over the hump"): "The truth is, no team is ever just a few players away from a championship. Each season starts anew."

Houston Texans admit a mistake by releasing Ed Reed - ESPN

BB, who talks about "climbing the mountain" from afresh each season, would probably agree.

"Standing pat" = going backwards. Evolve, or become extinct.

Straw man. I said nothing about standing pat.

 

[mayoclinic]

Straw man. I said nothing about standing pat.

And I never threw the team under the bus.

 

[manxman2601]

And I never threw the team under the bus.

1. I deleted that post.

2. Nowhere in it did I say you did. I had others in mind.

 

[Off The Grid]

Props, Brethren!!

With one bleating exception this's been one of the most deliciously insightful Discussions I've ever read. :rocker:

 

[Get it shawtaay]

Interestingly, Pete Carroll and John Schneider don't seem to agree with you.

Last year Seattle gave up a lead against Atlanta late in the NFC Divisional round after Chris Clemons tore his ACL. They couldn't generate any effective pressure on Matt Ryan, and he drove the ball down the field despite their having 4 Pro Bowl caliber DBs (Brandon Browner made the Pro Bowl last year). Seattle went out and signed Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in order to rectify that issue, and the results speak for themselves.

No secondary is good enough to stop a top QB with good receiving weapons if you don't generate effective pressure.

And frankly, our secondary was PLENTY good this year. Top 5 unit in the NFL when Talib was on the field. Possibly top 3 even. It was the pass rush that consistently let us down.

dryheat44, you cite a bunch of Bill's defensive draft picks as trying to get younger and faster. But Spikes, Cunningham, Brace, Tavon Wilson are all poor athletes. They don't represent an attempt to get younger and faster. They represent an attempt to collect archetypes of a 90s defense, who are stronger and more "sound" than they are athletic, and it simply doesn't fly when pysical contact is all but banned and the game is blown wide open.

As Mayoclinic said, this isn't about Seattle. This has been a hot topic in this subforum for a while.

 

[mayoclinic]

Pat Kirwan warns against trying to copy the Seahawks too much:

Seahawks a model for the rest of the NFL? Don't get carried away - CBSSports.com

However, Kirwan does single out some "tried and true" elements that factor into success:

Develop quality depth on defense

Do you know why the Seahawks could play the Broncos' offense so well? They have quality depth in the defensive line and even greater depth in the secondary. Simply put they could match up with all the Broncos' receiving weapons and were hardly affected by the no-huddle offense because they had enough pass rushers to stay fresh. Does your team have five corners that can play and at least seven men that can rush the passer?

Do what you do and compete at practice

Since Carroll and his GM John Schneider got to Seattle they haven't stopped turning over the roster until they found the right players and they were never afraid to say they made a mistake and moved on. There are no politics about high-round draft picks playing because of their entry point. They weed out the roster with serious competition at practice and players make or break their careers on the practice field.

Be physical and don't use excuses

It's easy to say NFL rules favor the offense and it's a good day if a defense can hold a team under 24 points. I've heard defensive coaches say they lowered their standards for what a good defense is anymore. Seattle doesn't use the new rules as an excuse to play mediocre defense. The Seahawks elect to do less but do it fast and with a strong physical style. Some call them a throwback but really they practice tackling every week and they will not play guys who don't tackle. End result? The Seahawks were the No. 1 defense in preventing yards after the catch and the Broncos came into the Super Bowl with the most YAC per game at 172 yards. It wasn't even close at the end of the Super Bowl. Can you remember watching one Seahawks defender throw his body at a tackle instead of wrapping up and punishing the ball carrier?

The Pats' 2013 D didn't come close to having 7 guys who could rush the passer and 5 CBs who could cover. I'd like to see that gap at least narrowed, if not entirely remedied.

BB has been way ahead of the rest of the NFL on the second point.

BB always stresses fundamentals, but I don't know if his defensive staff a bit behind in teaching some of this. There have been an awful lot of missed tackles and sloppy tackling in recent years.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Interestingly, Pete Carroll and John Schneider don't seem to agree with you.

Last year Seattle gave up a lead against Atlanta late in the NFC Divisional round after Chris Clemons tore his ACL. They couldn't generate any effective pressure on Matt Ryan, and he drove the ball down the field despite their having 4 Pro Bowl caliber DBs (Brandon Browner made the Pro Bowl last year). Seattle went out and signed Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in order to rectify that issue, and the results speak for themselves.

No secondary is good enough to stop a top QB with good receiving weapons if you don't generate effective pressure.

There was some luck there too. They had to protect themselves in case Clemons couldn't rebound. He did, and then they happened to have three good DEs. Then Clinton McDonald came out of nowhere and became a great interior sub-rusher. They went from having no good pass rushers at the end of 2012 to having 4 at the end of 2013.

Also if you look at what Avril and Bennett did in their first years with Seattle versus last year with Detroit and Tampa it's not even close. They were much better in Seattle. I think that has to do with the aggressiveness of the defensive line and the suffocating nature of the secondary and linebackers.

 

[dryheat44]

And frankly, our secondary was PLENTY good this year. Top 5 unit in the NFL when Talib was on the field. Possibly top 3 even. It was the pass rush that consistently let us down.

dryheat44, you cite a bunch of Bill's defensive draft picks as trying to get younger and faster. But Spikes, Cunningham, Brace, Tavon Wilson are all poor athletes. They don't represent an attempt to get younger and faster. They represent an attempt to collect archetypes of a 90s defense, who are stronger and more "sound" than they are athletic, and it simply doesn't fly when pysical contact is all but banned and the game is blown wide open.

As Mayoclinic said, this isn't about Seattle. This has been a hot topic in this subforum for a while.

As for the first part, how do we know? It's not like Manning held the ball, held the ball, held the ball, and then found his third read against us. But that's exactly what Seattle's coverage did to him in the Super Bowl. He was harassed all day because Seattle covered amazingly well. We all know that a good secondary makes a pass rush look better and vice versa, and also the a bad secondary makes a pass rush look worse, and vice versa. Last year's secondary was the best we've seen since Asante and Harrison were around, but let's not confuse "our best" with "amongst the NFL's best". They have a long way to go to get there.

As for the second part, nobody -- and I mean nobody -- was calling Hightower unathletic when he drafted. It was a genius pick of somebody who could line up all over the defense -- 4-3 end, and any linebacker position. Those aren't my words, there the words of the draftniks on this board. Wilson is not an unathletic player for a safety, and certainly not for a big safety/small linebacker, where I think Belichick drafted him to play. Cunningham was not a bad athlete for a defensive tackle. You didn't mention Chandler Jones or Jamie Collins or Devin McCourty. None may be "elite" athletes, but in case you haven't noticed:

1. Those guys typically don't last very long in the draft, and
2. Nobody would call Kam Chancellor, Brandon Browner, or Walter Thurmond "plus" athletes either.

Much like Tom Brady, every team in the NFL, including the Seahawks, passed over Sherman multiple times. Earl Thomas was the no-brainer of the bunch.

Nobody is arguing the Patriots don't need to get better. Nobody is arguing against getting more athletic players on the defense.

What is clear to me is that from 2000 to about 2009, Belichick was able to work inefficiencies in the draft and free agency from the lack of teams playing his 2-gap 3-4. Now more than half the teams play a 3-4, and Belichick is zagging, going back to a 4-3-style defense. Unfortunately, those stud pass rushers tend to go in the top 15 picks in the draft -- the Von Miller types that won't embarrass you in the running game go in the top 8. I think he's going to need two more drafts to get this defense where he wants it along the front 7. Free agency will be hard, because he's not going to overpay, and where once many free agents would take less and flock to play for the Patriots, right now the 49ers and Seahawks are the preferred destinations. That's not to say that they couldn't win next year. After all, I think end the end the offense let us down vs. Denver and other games in the regular season when you couldn't spell "offense" without "three-and-out". But I think the past two years and the next one are going to be what passes for "rebuilding" years. But again, to bring back full circle, I don't think the problem is with Belichick's defensive acumen, I think it's 100% an issue of talent, and I think a large part of that was injuries. You just can't remove Wilfork, Mayo and Kelly from the equation after the season starts, and then add Talib, Spikes, Dennard, and Harrington missing for stretches and clearly hampered by injuries when they played, and expect the defense to perform as an elite unit. Frankly, I'm impressed how well they played with guys like Jones, Vellano, Siliga, Ryan, and Harmon playing so many snaps. Again, we can't assume everybody is going to stay healthy all season, but Wilfork-Kelly with Siliga and Jones as reserves is a long way from Siliga-Jones with Vellano and Sapoaga as backups. It opened up the entire play-action game for the offense.

Jeebus, I'm rambling now. My main point is that the game hasn't passed Belichick by, and using a different draft strategy is not going to turn us into the Seahawks, unless drafting all-pro corners and safeties on day three is a viable strategy.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

There was some luck there too. They had to protect themselves in case Clemons couldn't rebound. He did, and then they happened to have three good DEs. Then Clinton McDonald came out of nowhere and became a great interior sub-rusher. They went from having no good pass rushers at the end of 2012 to having 4 at the end of 2013.

Also if you look at what Avril and Bennett did in their first years with Seattle versus last year with Detroit and Tampa it's not even close. They were much better in Seattle. I think that has to do with the aggressiveness of the defensive line and the suffocating nature of the secondary and linebackers.

That's really not true about Bennett. His last year in Tampa he was one of the most productive rushers in the NFL.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Pat Kirwan warns against trying to copy the Seahawks too much:

Seahawks a model for the rest of the NFL? Don't get carried away - CBSSports.com

However, Kirwan does single out some "tried and true" elements that factor into success:

What does he mean by this?

Can you remember watching one Seahawks defender throw his body at a tackle instead of wrapping up and punishing the ball carrier?

I honestly don't know what he means. Usually wrapping a ball carrier up does not punish them, but throwing your body at them usually does punish them. And the Seahawks do blow players up, if he's saying they don't then he's wrong.

Earl Thomas destroys Percy Harvin - YouTube
Jim Ross Calls Kam Chancellor's hit on Vernon Davis - YouTube

Even in the Super Bowl Chancellor blew up Demaryius Thomas in the first quarter. Chancellor hit him so hard it separated his shoulder.

The Pats' 2013 D didn't come close to having 7 guys who could rush the passer and 5 CBs who could cover. I'd like to see that gap at least narrowed, if not entirely remedied.

What 7 guys is he talking about?

BB always stresses fundamentals, but I don't know if his defensive staff a bit behind in teaching some of this. There have been an awful lot of missed tackles and sloppy tackling in recent years.

Seems like once a game Gregory flashes across the screen and misses a tackle.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

That's really not true about Bennett. His last year in Tampa he was one of the most productive rushers in the NFL.

He was better in Seattle. He had more sacks and pressures, and in less snaps.

 

[captain stone]

EDIT: I will add in fairness that I thought coming out that Hightower was much more athletic and better in space than he is. It is plausible BB thought the same which still doesn't discount the other inconsistencies.

Basically, Hightower trained to run a 40-time under 4.75.
Having accomplished that, he returned to his DE-sized ways, the results thereof
we are now reaping.

How much better-off would we be had Bill drafted Harrison Smith & Lavonte David
instead of Hightower & the Error Repeater?

 

[kennyb]

Basically, Hightower trained to run a 40-time under 4.75.
Having accomplished that, he returned to his DE-sized ways, the results thereof
we are now reaping.

How much better-off would we be had Bill drafted Harrison Smith & Lavonte David
instead of Hightower & the Error Repeater?

Hightower should be rushing the passer more. A lb like kyle van noy would be good because he's athletic enough to play in space and rush the passer. Hightower is just too sluggish in space.

 

[manxman2601]

Basically, Hightower trained to run a 40-time under 4.75.
Having accomplished that, he returned to his DE-sized ways, the results thereof
we are now reaping.

How much better-off would we be had Bill drafted Harrison Smith & Lavonte David
instead of Hightower & the Error Repeater?

I don't think you Watched Hightower at Alabama then. He was an exceptional linebacker.