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An interesting read from Pro Football Weekly:
ProFootballWeekly.com - Numbers crunching starting to change NFL thinking
The gist of the article is that statistical analysis combined with detailed game or scouting tape can be used on multiple levels: for personnel evaluation and roster building, for pre-game planning and opponent-specific strategy, and for game-day adjustments and play calling.
Former econ major BB has been into statistical analysis for years. Not surprising, the Pats figure prominently in the article:
Besides the Pats, the article notes the Packers, 49ers and Ravens among teams with an increasing focus on this kind of analysis. It's an interesting and provocative read, well worth reading the full article.
Fans and media have asked the question for years, wondering when the sabermetric world of baseball — brought to the mainstream via the bestseller list and Hollywood, through “Moneyball” — would migrate to the NFL. Something certainly has been lost in translation with advanced numbers crunching between the statistically integral nature of baseball, a sport comprised of one-on-one matchups, and football, a team sport where 11 players (in theory) work together toward a common goal. Another problem: Numbers often lie, or at least mislead, in football as adjunct metrics. It’s not always as clean and quantifiable, we’ve found, as it is in baseball.
However, there clearly is something to be gained from advanced statistical analysis. It’s being done around the National Football League, perhaps slightly on the margins, but the connection is being made with more teams than you would think. Its integration into football culture has been slow but progressive. Numbers-based systems are now leaking their way into mainstream football thought. More interestingly, NFL teams are paying more attention to statistics and how to use them better. Some teams — not all, certainly — have developed a utility for these numbers in how they craft their rosters and make strategic decisions in games.
Full-scale revolution? Hardly. But it’s another tool in the shed, and an increasingly important one, too. As a new generation of football thinkers take over head-coaching, coordinating and front-office positions, the NFL has become more open to out-of-the-box ideas, using fascinating statistical evidence to debunk many long-held football axioms.
Clearly, not every team has bought in yet. But we’re seeing a wave of new thinking in the NFL where it’s becoming more vogue to go against the norm when the numbers call for it. And it has a chance to change the way the game is played, too, when it comes to strategic decisions such as going for it on fourth downs, onsides kicking before the fourth quarter and going for two-point conversions in less-than-traditional circumstances. The sometimes-contrarian Patriots would have to be viewed as one of the NFL’s leaders in this regard.
At the heart of it, that’s what "Moneyball" was: a statistical approach to take advantage of market trends and add “value” players who add more bang for the buck. National Football Post president Andrew Brandt, a former NFL executive, recently estimated that 6-8 NFL teams have hired full-time statisticians to analyze data as supplemental tools for the franchise.
ProFootballWeekly.com - Numbers crunching starting to change NFL thinking
The gist of the article is that statistical analysis combined with detailed game or scouting tape can be used on multiple levels: for personnel evaluation and roster building, for pre-game planning and opponent-specific strategy, and for game-day adjustments and play calling.
Former econ major BB has been into statistical analysis for years. Not surprising, the Pats figure prominently in the article:
Bill Belichick might have been inspired by a Cal professor’s academic paper when he decided to go for it on 4th-and-2 from his own 28-yard line, up six points late against the Colts back on Nov. 15, 2009. Forget for a minute that the attempt came up short by a foot or so — we are seeing more teams going for it on fourth down in untraditional circumstances in recent seasons.
The Patriots have been going against the grain for years, likely a combination of playing to their own personnel strengths but also likely cognizant of the numbers that show that there are some old ways of thinking that need to be retired for the time being. Other teams appear to have the same sort of numbers-based bent.
Let’s see how often the Patriots used ’12 personnel’ (one running back, two tight ends) last year. Within an instant we have our answer: a whopping 65.5 percent of the time, far greater than any other NFL club last season, no doubt because of talented TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. From there, we are given more numbers: the percentages of time the Patriots ran the ball and threw it from that personnel grouping, along with how successful they were doing each.
Want to watch tape of Patriots seventh-round CB Alfonzo Dennard covering Saints fourth-round WR Nick Toon when Nebraska played Wisconsin? Boom — all of Toon’s targets and catches are time-coded and noted for when Dennard was covering him and when it was another Huskers DB. Cumulative statistics show that Dennard held Toon in check and that it was others who were responsible for four of his five catches, 94 of his 98 yards and his one TD catch in that game last fall.
Besides the Pats, the article notes the Packers, 49ers and Ravens among teams with an increasing focus on this kind of analysis. It's an interesting and provocative read, well worth reading the full article.