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- May 1, 2008
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I haven't posted since 2015, when the NFL suspended Tom Brady for the Ideal Gas Law. I decided that the Sinaloa and Cali cartels were more deserving of support than the one that calls itself the NFL. Haven't watched much since then and don't follow as closely. Lurk once in a while.
I haven't followed the draft discussion on the board very actively, but FWIW, here are a few thoughts:
General Thoughts
1. Every draft is different, there are opportunities and mistakes to be made every year. This one is thin at the top but very, very deep. If I compare this year's pool to last year's, last year had a strong top 25, but this year has quality going out at least mid-day 3. There will be hall of fame players to come out of this draft; they may be as likely to come day 2 or even 3 as day 1.
2. The draft every year tends to follow a pattern: the mediot hype machine ramps into overdrive, and everyone buys into the hype. People salivate over "can't miss" prospects. Some NFL teams buy into the hype; for others, their GMs and Scouts do their own work, and the draft inevitably veers off course, and the mediots try to correct on the fly. "Generational" and "can't miss" prospects often turn out to be far less, and gems sneak through the cracks.
3. Last year was pretty easy. The Pats desperately needed a QB, had the #3 pick, and there were 3 top ones. I personally had Drake Maye rated as my favorite QB prospect since Andrew Luck, and was thrilled. Many considered him a "boom or bust" prospect. That alone made it a great draft. I thought the Pats tried to fill needs much too much, and ignored values. In particular, I had a top 25 grade on Cooper De Jean and was screaming when he slipped to day 2.
4. I generally rate trajectory and traits above productivity. The latter is important, but so much depends on how a player is used, what they are asked to do, and how they are coached. Look at Nick Scourton at Purdue vs. Texas A&M, for example.
5. I am a build around the lines guy. All positions are important and have value, but other than QB I value line prospects (both OL and DL) over all others, and "playmakers" probably less than other positions, just based on the number of opportunities they have to impact a play. I would never, for example, have taken Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell in 2021 - both were great players, but for me the lineman would be my choice to build my team.
The 2025 Draft
1. This draft for me is all about 1 player: Josh Simmons. The Pats need a LT like they needed a QB in 2024, and I rate a healthy Simmons above Joe Alt (2024 #5), Ola Fashanu (2024 #10), Paris Johnson (2023 #6), Andrew Thomas (2020 #4), Rashawn Slater (2021 #13), Ikem Ekwonu (2022 #4) and Charles Cross (2022 #8). For me, the sine qua non for a dominant LT is their footwork and movement skills, and Simmons shines. His 10" hands are a great asset. He needs to get stronger and meaner, and there are maturity questions, but for me a healthy Josh Simmons would be a no-brainer for me at #4. Patellar tendon is a nasty injury, but if his medicals check out, I'd take him at #4 over anyone else, though I'd prefer a trade back to the 7-10 range. I'm convinced he will come off the board in the to 20 picks, with San Francisco (11), Dallas (12), and Arizona (16) as possible landing spots. He's that good. Take Simmons with your 1st pick, and then let the draft come to you. In my first mock (pre-Bowl Games, Combines, and FA), I had the Pats trading back from #4 to #9 and #40 with NO (for Abdul Carter, no less, as at that point I had Shedeur Sanders going top 3) and then trading back up into the 1st with the #38 and #40 picks.
2. I would NOT spend a top 10 pick on Will Campbell or Armand Membou. I'd gladly trade #50 and #173 to move up to #48 for Campbell (shades of 2001), but top 10 to me is ridiculous. The rumor mill is that the Pats love him and will mostly likely take him at #4, but I will personally barf if that happens. Membou is very athletic but raw and immature. I don't think he will make a great LT.
3. The hype machine is all over Travis Hunter and Ahmed Carter. I have questions about both. Hunter has unbelievable vision, ball skills, and endurance, but he has questions about positional fit and durability as a pro. Carter has tremendous burst, but he has only 1 year of experience as an edge rusher, is mainly a speed demon, and has had shoulder and foot injuries.
4. Ashton Jeanty is pound for pound the best and safest player in this draft. He will be an All Pro. The question is for how many years? No one would hesitate if he had a 10 year career, but by the end of his 1st contract will he be too beat up to still be an impact player?
5. I love the versatility of Jalon Walker and Tyler Warren. Not my first options at #4, but I would take either over Campbell/Membou, as I have them graded much higher. My top 7 players look something Like Hunter, Carter, Walker, Warren, Graham, Jeanty and Simmons. I would probably take Josh Conerly over Campbell and Membou as a pure LT prospect.
6. I don't see many good LT prospects slip to #38, so it's either take one at #4 (or with a trade back) or trade up. Donovan Jackson seems to be falling through the cracks. He filled in well at LT for Ohio St. and got better quickly. He's not a pure LT, but he could probably upgrade the position and then be moved inside in a year or 2. I'd consider him at #38 if available even if we go OT in the 1st round.
7. Other guys who I like in the 1st and would consider trading up for if we went OL with #4 (or a trade down): Jalon Walker, Tyler Warren, Shemar Stewart, Walter Nolen, Colston Loveland, Jihaad Campbell, Derrick Harmon. I'd look to see who slips. This will be a very subjective trade, and the order from 12-40 is totally up in the air. Some guys will slip, possibly even to day 2.
8. Guys I like day 2 if available: Donovan Jackson, Mason Taylor, Elijah Arroyo, Luther Burden,
I haven't followed the draft discussion on the board very actively, but FWIW, here are a few thoughts:
General Thoughts
1. Every draft is different, there are opportunities and mistakes to be made every year. This one is thin at the top but very, very deep. If I compare this year's pool to last year's, last year had a strong top 25, but this year has quality going out at least mid-day 3. There will be hall of fame players to come out of this draft; they may be as likely to come day 2 or even 3 as day 1.
2. The draft every year tends to follow a pattern: the mediot hype machine ramps into overdrive, and everyone buys into the hype. People salivate over "can't miss" prospects. Some NFL teams buy into the hype; for others, their GMs and Scouts do their own work, and the draft inevitably veers off course, and the mediots try to correct on the fly. "Generational" and "can't miss" prospects often turn out to be far less, and gems sneak through the cracks.
3. Last year was pretty easy. The Pats desperately needed a QB, had the #3 pick, and there were 3 top ones. I personally had Drake Maye rated as my favorite QB prospect since Andrew Luck, and was thrilled. Many considered him a "boom or bust" prospect. That alone made it a great draft. I thought the Pats tried to fill needs much too much, and ignored values. In particular, I had a top 25 grade on Cooper De Jean and was screaming when he slipped to day 2.
4. I generally rate trajectory and traits above productivity. The latter is important, but so much depends on how a player is used, what they are asked to do, and how they are coached. Look at Nick Scourton at Purdue vs. Texas A&M, for example.
5. I am a build around the lines guy. All positions are important and have value, but other than QB I value line prospects (both OL and DL) over all others, and "playmakers" probably less than other positions, just based on the number of opportunities they have to impact a play. I would never, for example, have taken Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell in 2021 - both were great players, but for me the lineman would be my choice to build my team.
The 2025 Draft
1. This draft for me is all about 1 player: Josh Simmons. The Pats need a LT like they needed a QB in 2024, and I rate a healthy Simmons above Joe Alt (2024 #5), Ola Fashanu (2024 #10), Paris Johnson (2023 #6), Andrew Thomas (2020 #4), Rashawn Slater (2021 #13), Ikem Ekwonu (2022 #4) and Charles Cross (2022 #8). For me, the sine qua non for a dominant LT is their footwork and movement skills, and Simmons shines. His 10" hands are a great asset. He needs to get stronger and meaner, and there are maturity questions, but for me a healthy Josh Simmons would be a no-brainer for me at #4. Patellar tendon is a nasty injury, but if his medicals check out, I'd take him at #4 over anyone else, though I'd prefer a trade back to the 7-10 range. I'm convinced he will come off the board in the to 20 picks, with San Francisco (11), Dallas (12), and Arizona (16) as possible landing spots. He's that good. Take Simmons with your 1st pick, and then let the draft come to you. In my first mock (pre-Bowl Games, Combines, and FA), I had the Pats trading back from #4 to #9 and #40 with NO (for Abdul Carter, no less, as at that point I had Shedeur Sanders going top 3) and then trading back up into the 1st with the #38 and #40 picks.
2. I would NOT spend a top 10 pick on Will Campbell or Armand Membou. I'd gladly trade #50 and #173 to move up to #48 for Campbell (shades of 2001), but top 10 to me is ridiculous. The rumor mill is that the Pats love him and will mostly likely take him at #4, but I will personally barf if that happens. Membou is very athletic but raw and immature. I don't think he will make a great LT.
3. The hype machine is all over Travis Hunter and Ahmed Carter. I have questions about both. Hunter has unbelievable vision, ball skills, and endurance, but he has questions about positional fit and durability as a pro. Carter has tremendous burst, but he has only 1 year of experience as an edge rusher, is mainly a speed demon, and has had shoulder and foot injuries.
4. Ashton Jeanty is pound for pound the best and safest player in this draft. He will be an All Pro. The question is for how many years? No one would hesitate if he had a 10 year career, but by the end of his 1st contract will he be too beat up to still be an impact player?
5. I love the versatility of Jalon Walker and Tyler Warren. Not my first options at #4, but I would take either over Campbell/Membou, as I have them graded much higher. My top 7 players look something Like Hunter, Carter, Walker, Warren, Graham, Jeanty and Simmons. I would probably take Josh Conerly over Campbell and Membou as a pure LT prospect.
6. I don't see many good LT prospects slip to #38, so it's either take one at #4 (or with a trade back) or trade up. Donovan Jackson seems to be falling through the cracks. He filled in well at LT for Ohio St. and got better quickly. He's not a pure LT, but he could probably upgrade the position and then be moved inside in a year or 2. I'd consider him at #38 if available even if we go OT in the 1st round.
7. Other guys who I like in the 1st and would consider trading up for if we went OL with #4 (or a trade down): Jalon Walker, Tyler Warren, Shemar Stewart, Walter Nolen, Colston Loveland, Jihaad Campbell, Derrick Harmon. I'd look to see who slips. This will be a very subjective trade, and the order from 12-40 is totally up in the air. Some guys will slip, possibly even to day 2.
8. Guys I like day 2 if available: Donovan Jackson, Mason Taylor, Elijah Arroyo, Luther Burden,
