National Sports Advisors
Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
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Lets look at 1st round backs since 2000, and what their 2nd year RUSHING production was (I projected the 06 class based on 11 game production):
06 -
Reggie Bush- 752 6
DeAngelo Williams- 561 1
Laurence Maroney- 677 4
Joseph Addai- 1271 13
05
Ronnie Brown- 1008 5
Cedric Benson- 647 6 (splitting carries)
Cadillac Williams- 798 1
04
Stephen Jackson- 1046 8
Chris Perry- 279 0
Kevin Jones- 664 5
03
Willis McGahee- 1247 5
Larry Johnson- 581 9 (splitting carries- next year solo 1750 10)
02
William Green- 559 1 (half the season injured)
TJ Duckett- 779 11
01
LT- 1683 14
Deuce McAllister- 1388 13
Michael Bennett- 1296 5
00
Jamal Lewis- 1327 6
Thomas Jones- 380 5
Ron Dayne- 690 7
Sean Alexander- 1318 4
A few things stand out to me. One is, Maroney is not going to be an all-pro back. The guys who wound up being standouts were standouts by year 2. Thomas Jones had a few good seasons with Chicago late, but for the most part a 1st round RB who starts in year 2 and gains less than 1000 yards is, like NSA says, ultimately probably going to be just another guy. By that logic, Addai is the clear winner from the 06 draft, and will probably be good for a number of years.
Maroney is not a bust, but he's not a bang either. Yes, backs get better over a number of years, but by year 2 the guys who get it already got it. Those are the franchise guys. What's interesting to me is, guys who get less than 800 yards in year 2 don't become all-pros (granted, this is only 1st round picks we're talking here).
For what it's worth, I don't buy the "game plan" argument that you guys are putting out there. When Morris was healthy, the Pats ran often. By the time he got hurt, it seemed clear that he was the number one back in spirit if not in form, and he factored in heavily in game plans against teams with good pass rush abilities. When was the last time Maroney got the ball on 3rd down? I don't see the confidence in him that you all do. If you've got a back that can play, you play him. They're not re-inventing the wheel in Foxboro, they're playing to their strenghts. Clearly Maroney is not one of them.
I wouldn't be shocked to see the Pats pick McFadden or another running back, even though it will be costly. I think they can find LB help in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and with Faulk getting older they're going to need a clear #1, especially if Stallworth goes and CJ doesn't live up to his potential either.
My gut says that Maroney is out of here by the time his rookie contract is up. If he can't be a 1,000 yard back with this years team, he's not going to be a 1,000 yard back period.
I agree. I view Laurence Maroney as the Daniel Graham of running backs. Graham was a solid TE, but it was obvious to anyone with a pulse by year #2 that that guy was never going to be an elite TE. He was solid, nothing more and nothing less. The same applies with Maroney, although I still have doubts whether this guy will even be around here by year #5 of his rookie contract. Running backs are not rocket scientists. This asburd notion that he does not get more playing time because he is injured(he's not on the INJURY REPORT, people) and/or he needs to "learn the offense" is comical. The guy is what he is. He is a running back that is not a threat to get anything more than 10-15 yards on any given run, a back that is no use in the passing game, and a back who has not shown he can grind out the tough yards. He is the Daniel Graham of running backs. He is what he is people.












