Lazar: Belichick’s in-game decision-making is holding the Pats back

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

If you're going to bring up Butler, we have to talk about SB 52.

Not sure what you mean…what happened?

 

[Twentytothree]

I Truly dont see where they said they gain 1% in average or studied only changes of 1% in average. And I also dont see any averages in this picture...

It says gains of at least of 1%.

And saying with confidence what is the variance of any given equation is... bold. Unless you are saying that any given event has large variance, to which I respond "Obvs"... no studies is determined by any single event


Ps - if you did the math (like, adding all samples, derivating the average based on graphs) and reversed engineering these probabilites, I just applaud you.

My understanding is that the predicted win probabilities are provided by some form of machine learning algorithm that takes into account information about the current game, but has been trained on a large set of historical play-by-play data, hopefully also including external factors like weather, injuries etc (the total of the information in the training sample is what I referred to as "average"). For a choice between two alternatives the algorithm may predict a 1% difference. Based on my own work with machine learning algorithms in much better controlled and data rich settings, this is unlikely to be a meaningful distinction (supported e.g., by the wild swings one can observed in real-time calculations of these probabilities). What is now a 1% distinction in one direction could easily flip sign, if more data or slightly updated models become available, and even in the best of circumstances is small compared to the swing one good (or bad) tackle, throw, run, kick etc can make.

Note added in proof: Going back to the last "big controversy", going for it or kicking vs Tampa Bay, different analytical models gave wildly different estimates of the respective win probabilities, with swings of more than 10%. Prior information not available to the models (e.g. that Mac got his head scrambled by a hit a few minutes prior or that Folk was making 55+ yard kicks with ease in warmup) easily trumps the predictive power of the model for situations close to 50/50.

 

[venecol]

My understanding is that the predicted win probabilities are provided by some form of machine learning algorithm that takes into account information about the current game, but has been trained on a large set of historical play-by-play data, hopefully also including external factors like weather, injuries etc (the total of the information in the training sample is what I referred to as "average"). For a choice between two alternatives the algorithm may predict a 1% difference. Based on my own work with machine learning algorithms in much better controlled and data rich settings, this is unlikely to be a meaningful distinction (supported e.g., by the wild swings one can observed in real-time calculations of these probabilities). What is now a 1% distinction in one direction could easily flip sign, if more data or slightly updated models become available, and even in the best of circumstances is small compared to the swing one good (or bad) tackle, throw, run, kick etc can make.

Note added in proof: Going back to the last "big controversy", going for it or kicking vs Tampa Bay, different analytical models gave wildly different estimates of the respective win probabilities, with swings of more than 10%. Prior information not available to the models (e.g. that Mac got his head scrambled by a hit a few minutes prior or that Folk was making 55+ yard kicks with ease in warmup) easily trumps the predictive power of the model for situations close to 50/50.

So junk in, junk out?

 

[varjao]

Something that is bothering me for a while is that the Pats are not taking chances with 1 minute left at the end of first half and that goes back to a few years back. It's not only about the damn 3 points, I don't know, I don't like the message.

What is really pissing me off though for some years now is those little mistakes in situational football, the Pats used to be in a totally different league when it comes to that, not taking stupid fouls, forcing the opponent into fouls, taking advantage of in game situations, not being fooled around by other teams, now it seems it's the complete opposite. Last game that stupid delay of game foul was decisive.

In my opinion, bad use of timeouts, bad readings when it comes to special teams and 4th down decisions.

Sum it all and it's the Browns of life (well the Browns are kinda good lately).

There's no way you can't pin some of the blame on the coaching staff, I'm not even going into draft discussions. I think the Pats lost too much coaching staff recently and for some reason or another couldn't replace adequately.

 

[catent]

Lots of variables beyond just how your own offense is playing when considering how aggressive to be at the end of halves/games, 4th down, etc.

Three incomplete passes with 2 minutes left in a half means about 10-15 seconds come off the clock and the other team gets the ball back with plenty of time to score. Those conservative end of halves are based on those considerations too, including the quality of the opponent's offense, how many timeouts they have, how much time is left, field position, etc.

I think the team could afford to be more aggressive in general (not just down/distance/game clock situations) but if the offense goes for it against the Bucs and Dallas and those games end up the same way (as losses) for different reasons, we'd be critiquing those decisions, too. (Well, perhaps not everyone would be critical, but certainly plenty of the people critical of the decisions to this point would also be critical of different decisions if the outcome wasn't what they wanted).

 

[Tunescribe]

I, for one, am sick of BB being micro-analyzed on this board by "fans" and pundits who actually believe they "know things" sufficient to disparage the greatest coach this sport ever has seen -- with or without Tom Brady. It's what "fans" do, I suppose, when they're used to being spoiled and the road gets bumpy. BB is nearing the end of an incredible career run and too many here are eager to rush him out the door. Be careful what you wish for, folks. Whoever comes next likely will give cause for some REAL second-guessing.

 

[Deus Irae]

I, for one, am sick of BB being micro-analyzed on this board by "fans" and pundits who actually believe they "know things" sufficient to disparage the greatest coach this sport ever has seen -- with or without Tom Brady. It's what "fans" do, I suppose, when they're used to being spoiled and the road gets bumpy. BB is nearing the end of an incredible career run and too many here are eager to rush him out the door. Be careful what you wish for, folks. Whoever comes next likely will give cause for some REAL second-guessing.

Many here are tired of being told that, effectively, Belichick is above criticism. And, as far as "Be careful what you wish for", you should have given that lecture to Belichick, before he pushed Brady out the door.

 

[Tunescribe]

Many here are tired of being told that, effectively, Belichick is above criticism. And, as far as "Be careful what you wish for", you should have given that lecture to Belichick, before he pushed Brady out the door.

Oh no, are you lost AGAIN?!

Here: https://www.pewterreport.com

 

[JayNM]

My understanding is that the predicted win probabilities are provided by some form of machine learning algorithm that takes into account information about the current game, but has been trained on a large set of historical play-by-play data, hopefully also including external factors like weather, injuries etc (the total of the information in the training sample is what I referred to as "average"). For a choice between two alternatives the algorithm may predict a 1% difference. Based on my own work with machine learning algorithms in much better controlled and data rich settings, this is unlikely to be a meaningful distinction (supported e.g., by the wild swings one can observed in real-time calculations of these probabilities). What is now a 1% distinction in one direction could easily flip sign, if more data or slightly updated models become available, and even in the best of circumstances is small compared to the swing one good (or bad) tackle, throw, run, kick etc can make.

Note added in proof: Going back to the last "big controversy", going for it or kicking vs Tampa Bay, different analytical models gave wildly different estimates of the respective win probabilities, with swings of more than 10%. Prior information not available to the models (e.g. that Mac got his head scrambled by a hit a few minutes prior or that Folk was making 55+ yard kicks with ease in warmup) easily trumps the predictive power of the model for situations close to 50/50.

Got it, i never seen this definition of average - being the total of anything -, but Im dont have have that much experience with ML, Im more of a Econometrics kinda of guy.

In any case, I hear what you saying, and yeah, makes sense. But you are still doing some predicitons about the events and variable and even models that they use... More important, is that we dont really know for sure how many of these events could have a small/interchangable result, based on an added factor, no matter how big it is and, you must at least agree to this, maybe this added factor could ENHANCE the bad decision.

So you know, based on the graphic, what I know of the teams there and how they approach 4th down, yeah, i still think this has some truth in the real world. My point that i dont think this rubbish like Deus thought, still rings true to me

 

[RobertWeathers]

Oh no, are you lost AGAIN?!

Here: https://www.pewterreport.com

Seriously. Hes in the wrong forum.

 

[1960Pats]

I, for one, am sick of BB being micro-analyzed on this board by "fans" and pundits who actually believe they "know things" sufficient to disparage the greatest coach this sport ever has seen -- with or without Tom Brady. It's what "fans" do, I suppose, when they're used to being spoiled and the road gets bumpy. BB is nearing the end of an incredible career run and too many here are eager to rush him out the door. Be careful what you wish for, folks. Whoever comes next likely will give cause for some REAL second-guessing.

Bill has shown us all repeatedly that he believes in letting players go too early rather than too late. What's wrong with applying that to coaches?

Bill is 10 games under .500 as a HC without Brady. That's not an opinion, it's a fact.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Bill has shown us all repeatedly that he believes in letting players go too early rather than too late. What's wrong with applying that to coaches?

Bill is 10 games under .500 as a HC without Brady. That's not an opinion, it's a fact.

Thats not true. He lets players go that no longer produce up to their cap/salary, there is a younger/better option, or don't want to be here anymore.

...and firing BB now or at the end of the year is nonsensical.

 

[sb1]

I, for one, am sick of BB being micro-analyzed on this board by "fans" and pundits who actually believe they "know things" sufficient to disparage the greatest coach this sport ever has seen -- with or without Tom Brady. It's what "fans" do, I suppose, when they're used to being spoiled and the road gets bumpy. BB is nearing the end of an incredible career run and too many here are eager to rush him out the door. Be careful what you wish for, folks. Whoever comes next likely will give cause for some REAL second-guessing.

It's not really about BB. The coaching on this team is questionable right now and it's fair to wonder what's going on.

When you have a rookie QB that is 3 for 3 for leading his team to a score in a 2 minute drill, and you concede a half with 90 seconds and 2 timeouts instead of letting your QB go for it again, and you lose because of that decision, and you give half baked answers why that happened, then it doesn't matter who our coach is there will be questions.

 

[sb1]

Thats not true. He lets players go that no longer produce up to their cap/salary, there is a younger/better option, or don't want to be here anymore.

...and firing BB now or at the end of the year is nonsensical.

Belichick isn't getting fired by this team now, end of the year, or ever. He will step down when the time comes.

 

[archstanton543]

It's not really about BB. The coaching on this team is questionable right now and it's fair to wonder what's going on.

When you have a rookie QB that is 3 for 3 for leading his team to a score in a 2 minute drill, and you concede a half with 90 seconds and 2 timeouts instead of letting your QB go for it again, and you lose because of that decision, and you give half baked answers why that happened, then it doesn't matter who our coach is there will be questions.

They had one timeout but I agree with your point.

 

[Pats2000]

That and he hasn't challenged any calls either. A red flag could have helped their chances last Sunday.

There was no challenge that would have reversed a play on the field during the Cowboys game

 

[Tunescribe]

Bill has shown us all repeatedly that he believes in letting players go too early rather than too late. What's wrong with applying that to coaches?

Bill is 10 games under .500 as a HC without Brady. That's not an opinion, it's a fact.

Also a fact: you can't make those assessments without proper context, including who else was on those teams BB built with/without Brady, at what point in his tenure here or at Cleveland those wins and losses occurred, etc. For instance, in 16 of Brady's 20 seasons here, the Patriots had a top-10 defense. And remember, the Patriots went 11-5 with Matt Cassel in the season Brady was injured. BB orchestrated a winning team of which Brady was a key component, but it would be incorrect and unfair to call BB a failure without him.

 

[sb1]

They had one timeout but I agree with your point.

For some reason I remembered 2 but you're right.

 

[archstanton543]

There was no challenge that would have reversed a play on the field during the Cowboys game

The Meyers catch forward progress that was over the first down marker that was marked short would have been overturned on a challenge.

 

[Pats2000]

The Meyers catch forward progress that was over the first down marker that was marked short would have been overturned on a challenge.

Forward progress only applies when you get hit. You can't catch a ball and fall backwards untouched and get forward progress. Learn the game