Kraft acknowledges drafting woes, says approach is changing

[Huckleberry1]

Which also means Tom valued and trusted the coach/GM to construct a team that would be competitive year after year.

I’m as big a Brady fan as it gets but he didn’t win those Super Bowl’s on his own, and in at least two of them, the first and last, he was marginal at best. Whereas in the Philly loss he was exceptional and the defense was atrocious. Great QB’s on mediocre teams don’t win Super Bowl’s, but great QB’s on good to great teams often do. Brady had multiple HOF careers in NE, and Belichick built multiple championship teams for Brady to lead, both deserve full credit for their accomplishments, not one or the other.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The idea that drafting later is so much of a disadvantage is a myth. I can illustrate this with numbers using the 10th pick and the 30th. Here are their two drafts;
10-42-74-106-138-170-202
30-62-94-126-158-190-222

Now let's give the higher team the 10th pick and see what happens;
30-42-62-74-94-106-126-138-158-170-190-202-222

The higher team now has the 10th pick but will pick 12 picks after the later pick in each round and get one less player at the end, minimizing the ONE player advantage.

We disagree on this. Picking last or near to it in every round clearly puts a franchise at a disadvantage. You don’t get the top players in a draft, and the value of your picks to move up are less.

 

[Sicilian]

The idea that drafting later is so much of a disadvantage is a myth. I can illustrate this with numbers using the 10th pick and the 30th. Here are their two drafts;
10-42-74-106-138-170-202
30-62-94-126-158-190-222

Now let's give the higher team the 10th pick and see what happens;
30-42-62-74-94-106-126-138-158-170-190-202-222

The higher team now has the 10th pick but will pick 12 picks after the later pick in each round and get one less player at the end, minimizing the ONE player advantage.

I've heard this argument before, and I just don't buy it. It's not a one player advantage, it's an advantage in every round. Go one step further and after team B takes their player at 30, you're right back to a one player advantage from the second round on. Not to mention that the odds of taking a hit increase substantially in that first half of the first round, so "just one player" (even if you believe that) is still HUGE.

But beyond that, the higher picks in each round have more value in trades, both to move around the draft and to acquire players. You can say it's not as big a deal as some people make it out to be, and I can't argue with that. Some people go overboard. But to say it's a myth that it's a noticeable disadvantage is simply not true.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Give me a GM that has:

- Wolf’s ability to find quarterbacks
- Colbert’s ability to find wide receivers
- Ozzie Newsome’s ability to find defensive players
- Belichick’s ability to do everything else

And that’s a GM that’s never having a losing season

I think some of the criticism for Belichick’s drafts is valid, but the draft is only one facet of building a team, and Belichick excels at the overall process of building a team.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I've heard this argument before, and I just don't buy it. It's not a one player advantage, it's an advantage in every round. Go one step further and after team B takes their player at 30, you're right back to a one player advantage from the second round on. Not to mention that the odds of taking a hit increase substantially in that first half of the first round, so "just one player" (even if you believe that) is still HUGE.

But beyond that, the higher picks in each round have more value in trades, both to move around the draft and to acquire players. You can say it's not as big a deal as some people make it out to be, and I can't argue with that. Some people go overboard. But to say it's a myth that it's a noticeable disadvantage is simply not true.

Agree completely.

 

[1960Pats]

One example invalidates potentially every other of the probably thousands of decisions we don't hear about?

Yes.

Okay, that response was a joke, but there has been some other criticisms about BB listening to Saban and others outside the organization.

 

[1960Pats]

We disagree on this. Picking last or near to it in every round clearly puts a franchise at a disadvantage. You don’t get the top players in a draft, and the value of your picks to move up are less.

If it's such a disadvantage then why are the same teams with the later picks in the playoffs most of the time?

The advantage is one player and after that the other team is picking ahead of that team and has an extra player at the end. It's all right there in black and white (red and purple actually.)

Throw in the fact that the draft is so unpredictable and the advantage is even less.

 

[1960Pats]

Are you Jonathan Kraft? Your deep insight into how the Patriots are really run is so incredible! Belichick has been hoodwinking everyone for 20 years. You should write a book about how they are actually run.

 

[Sicilian]

If it's such a disadvantage then why are the same teams with the later picks in the playoffs most of the time?

The advantage is one player and after that the other team is picking ahead of that team and has an extra player at the end. It's all right there in black and white (red and purple actually.)

Throw in the fact that the draft is so unpredictable and the advantage is even less.

So, when arguing that draft position has an advantage, the draft is too unpredictable for it to matter.

When arguing that the draft is unpredictable, and bad picks are often only realized in hindsight, we're told it doesn't matter and the GM sucks.

When told you may be able to find a QB outside of the top 10, we're told the draft position matters a great deal and that's unlikely.

So which is it? Does draft position matter, or is the draft all random and thus all criticism might as well be levied at a pair of dice?

 

[Huckleberry1]

If it's such a disadvantage then why are the same teams with the later picks in the playoffs most of the time?

The advantage is one player and after that the other team is picking ahead of that team and has an extra player at the end. It's all right there in black and white (red and purple actually.)

Throw in the fact that the draft is so unpredictable and the advantage is even less.

Some teams are poorly run, like the Jets and Bengals, and some teams are well run, like NE and Baltimore, so they are consistent in their drafting positions. There is clearly more to building a team than the draft, and well run teams can overcome the disadvantage of picking late.

 

[Bill Lee]

The problem:

After 20 years of player acquisition that produced 18 division titles, 9 AFC titles, and 6 Super Bowls, you and every other dumbazz on this board can only fixate on one draft pick with minor diversions to Carlos Dunlap and Chad Jackson both a generation ago.

Why is that?

Well, it's standard that the dumbazz believes something and then without thought or rationale will fixate on that to the exclusion of the preponderance of activity.

Why do you think that article came out?

Somebody (my guess is Winker Bob) reads patsfans and sees the same imbeciles posting very minor variations of the same thing time after time and then throws stories like this as red meat knowing the dumbazzes will never, ever resist.

Take some time and try to actually think about it.

Hey, you're working my side of the street! :grin:

My take is in: Never give this guy a job as an NFL scout (Nkeal Harry evaluation)

I wrote that before reading your take.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

R

I think in time we Will see the TB 12 vitamins on the banned substance list.
Tom’s found some ingredients that are keeping him in peek shape and it’s not natural. It’s got a bad smell to it though. I truly believe this is why Bill wanted Guerrero away from the rest of the team.

disagree, he's just a monk in terms of his discipline with the food he puts into his body and how he works out. He focuses on flexibility and keeping inflammation down to avoid injuries, and the QB position outside of Kickers can play into older years more so than other positions. The rules have also been changing over the years to continue to protect QBs that owners are shelling out quarter of a billion dollar contracts to

I'd say Brady has been more lucky than anything, in terms of just avoiding serious injuries. On any play, someone could smash him into the ground and break a bunch of ribs just like what happened to Brees, or blow his shoulder out, etc

 

[Sicilian]

disagree, he's just a monk in terms of his discipline with the food he puts into his body and how he works out. He focuses on flexibility and keeping inflammation down to avoid injuries, and the QB position outside of Kickers can play into older years more so than other positions. The rules have also been changing over the years to continue to protect QBs that owners are shelling out quarter of a billion dollar contracts to

I'd say Brady has been more lucky than anything, in terms of just avoiding serious injuries. On any play, someone could smash him into the ground and break a bunch of ribs just like what happened to Brees, or blow his shoulder out, etc

Definitely some luck involved, but it also helps that he has a quick release so he's rarely getting hit without a chance to brace himself and fall properly. Don't underestimate the value of knowing how to fall. It's something they taught us in martial arts, and it saved me from a nasty head hit when I wiped out rollerblading (I know, I know, that previous sentence pretty much makes me the coolest dude).

 

[captain stone]

Big "if," considering that harry was constantly in the top 5, often top 3, on most draft boards.

Harry was absolutely Not considered a top 3 WR before the 1st round began that Thursday night...barely top 5...maybe...

 

[Bill Lee]

Give me a GM that has:

- Wolf’s ability to find quarterbacks
- Colbert’s ability to find wide receivers
- Ozzie Newsome’s ability to find defensive players
- Belichick’s ability to do everything else

And that’s a GM that’s never having a losing season

Even more amazing BB is in that conversation AND is head coach at the same time.

The other guys can focus on evaluating talent, BB has to do that PLUS come up with a system to develop their talent, a system to put the players into plays that take advantage of their talent, make decisions about what plays to call in real time on game day, make half time adjustments, and so on.

BB is the GOAT.

 

[Huckleberry1]

disagree, he's just a monk in terms of his discipline with the food he puts into his body and how he works out. He focuses on flexibility and keeping inflammation down to avoid injuries, and the QB position outside of Kickers can play into older years more so than other positions. The rules have also been changing over the years to continue to protect QBs that owners are shelling out quarter of a billion dollar contracts to

I'd say Brady has been more lucky than anything, in terms of just avoiding serious injuries. On any play, someone could smash him into the ground and break a bunch of ribs just like what happened to Brees, or blow his shoulder out, etc

Disagree on this, there might be some luck in avoiding serious injury but on the whole I think Brady understood how serious injuries occur and dedicated his regimen to developing as much flexibility as he possibly could to be able to withstand the pounding while not breaking.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

disagree, he's just a monk in terms of his discipline with the food he puts into his body and how he works out. He focuses on flexibility and keeping inflammation down to avoid injuries, and the QB position outside of Kickers can play into older years more so than other positions. The rules have also been changing over the years to continue to protect QBs that owners are shelling out quarter of a billion dollar contracts to

I'd say Brady has been more lucky than anything, in terms of just avoiding serious injuries. On any play, someone could smash him into the ground and break a bunch of ribs just like what happened to Brees, or blow his shoulder out, etc

Not to bash ChrisR here or anything, but a lot of people (just by the nature of humanity and how we've evolved) don't know what we can achieve with just a strict, disciplined approach to fitness. Anytime we see an outlier we jump to assumptions that the person must be on some kind of **** when really you just never see guys like that because we're just generally not as obsessive as Brady is about this kinda stuff

 

[amfootball]

Tampa Bay beat K.C. Because of their defense, not their offense.

Good heavens. 31 points could have easily been 40+ but Tampa chose to run out the clock the entire 4th quarter.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Good heavens. 31 points could have easily been 40+ but Tampa chose to run out the clock the entire 4th quarter.

You’re right, Mahomes rarely puts up more than 9 points against anyone, and Brady had 23 tackles, 8 pressures, and 5 sacks, he was the offensive and defensive MVP.

 

[sb1]

Tampa Bay beat K.C. Because of their defense, not their offense.

It was both.

And Reid too for leaving both overmatched tackles on an island. He's not really the greatest at adapting on the fly.

Put Reid on the Pats and the Seahawks SB is a loss, and maybe even the second Rams one.