Kicking the 56 yard FG vs going for it on 4th and 3

[JayNM]

These kind of metrics don’t mean much imo. For example- FG probability for who? Folk doesn’t have the range. Should have gone for it.

Absolutely

"Next Gen"

Taking kick on similar conditions? Wow, so revolutionary

You telling me that Nick Folk had 43% chance to make this kick, on these conditions, from 56(his best in his career=56)?

Like you Bostonions say GET OUTTA HEERE.

 

[sb1]

Anyone really think the GOAT doesn’t take those last 50 seconds and march down the field for a GWFG the other way even if the kick was good?

A wretched call.

 

[sambam94]

Pats were 2-8 on 3rd down....so maybe the FG was the right call.

 

[jah]

Despicable, nonsensical, cowardly call.

A 56-yarder is a very, very difficult FG in any circumstance let alone in these conditions.

You get a first down, at worst you kick a 52-yarder for the win. You control your own destiny, you have a TO, you can have a couple of plays for a decent FG attempt.

Even if Folk made it, there were 50 seconds and 2 TO’s and it’s Brady with the ball only needing FG range.

Give your young QB a chance to win the game. Horrible decision from every angle.

It depends what you mean by cowardly. I kind of see it the other way: a sign of disrespect toward Brady, saying "I'll take my chances with Brady and a game winning drive."

 

[festy1986]

Folk may of been on a nice little run but he's not shown once he can make it from that distance at this point in his career in a downpour.

He's the reason the BUCS lost the last time we played them. This is in his DNA.

 

[Tottie]

I'll defer to BB but because of our kicker, the time left on the clock and TB's timeouts, I think it was incredibly stupid to try that FG. The opponents ENTIRE CB group was out and you rather put the game in Folk's hands? We need every win to make the playoffs.

 

[sambam94]

Absolutely

"Next Gen"

Taking kick on similar conditions? Wow, so revolutionary

You telling me that Nick Folk had 43% chance to make this kick, on these conditions, from 56(his best in his career=56)?

Like you Bostonions say GET OUTTA HEERE.

considering he hit the post and was inches away, yeah 43% sounds right

 

[JayNM]

I will spend the next 4 hours arguing with whomever defends this call. Thank god for Home Office

 

[jah]

Folk may of been on a nice little run but he's not shown once he can make it from that distance at this point in his career in a downpour.

He's the reason the BUCS lost the last time we played them. This is in his DNA.

Kind of poetic when you put it that way.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

@Ross12 you gonna kick me out of this one too? Lol . All that money my family has been donating to this forum for 15 years

 

[blackglass3]

Josh would have called some stupid play is we went for it, so while I hate the call the alternative was watching Mac get sacked or Jacob Johnson lose yards on a carry.

 

[Twentytothree]

That was a bad call. Even if kick is good you’re leaving a lot of time on the clock and 2 timeouts for the GOAT.

this was right up there imo with 4th and 2 in the book of Bill blunders if he was the one that elected to kick. No way Folk is making that in this weather. He’s not Tucker.

Except that it failed by maybe three inches, so of course Folk had a chance to make it. Going for it from 4th and 3, in particular when your run game is not going anywhere, is a less than 50% proposition. And a successful conversion would not have won the game, but most likely just set up a somewhat shorter field goal in heavy rain.

Everybody's arguing based on outcome and emotion - I have not seen a coherent argument based on statistics.

 

[Pape]

It was absolutely the right decision to make.

4 and 3 ... you dont convert, you lose.

you kick every time. You try to put the points on the board. Every Time.

 

[gobesmug]

It was the right call. The odds were comparable either way.

The rain was affecting Brady all game. He started to look sharp the moment it stopped.

It was a good game, and the Pats look very promising. The second half of the season should be good

 

[JayNM]

considering he hit the post and was inches away, yeah 43% sounds right

A miss is a miss. I could say that he was lucky to hit the post

 

[ashley]

These kind of metrics don’t mean much imo. For example- FG probability for who? Folk doesn’t have the range. Should have gone for it.

So just ignore stats then? He said he made it from 58 during warm ups....Tough choice, if they go for it and don't make it, people are going to 2nd guess why they didn't go for the field goal....either way, we could have won the game...Brady didn't throw any TD's and we have our qb of the future. Even though a tough loss, I think we have a bright future.

 

[jah]

It was absolutely the right decision to make.

4 and 3 ... you dont convert, you lose.

you kick every time. You try to put the points on the board. Every Time.

How does a field goal also not carry the same "you don't convert, you lose" condition? We didn't convert, we lost. Furthermore, if we did convert the kick, we still don't necessarily win. It's the right decision if there are 15 seconds left on the clock. It's not the right decision when there's more than enough time for the greatest 2 minute drill QB in NFL history to score some more points.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Thanks for posting.

I’m not saying this was some insane decision, as the analytics support it. However, I do wonder if those factor in variables besides just clock and field position. The factors that stood out to me:

• Mac’s accuracy throughout the game including 20 straight completions. Against a totally destroyed TB secondary missing their three starting CBs and starting FS.
• That Folk is notoriously not a good long range kicker, but is a great sub-50 kicker, and it’s pouring.
• Tom Brady is in the other sideline with two timeouts, so keeping the ball away from him is a huge factor.

But in the end, Bill coached an outstanding game. It was decided by inches. This isn’t some huge blunder (especially in hindsight), but I really was shocked at the decision and said so at the time.

 

[Tunescribe]

Kicking it vs. going for the first down was the right decision from a probability standpoint as already posted. A significant intangible in favor of kicking was Folk's hot streak. Good decision by BB, it just didn't work out.

 

[Redman443]

If it was 4th and 7 I would kick it but 4th and 3 is perfectly makeable. If you cant get 3 yards then you dont deserve to win the game.