Karen Guregian: Pats are at the top or near the top of Reggie Wayne's list

[patsfan-1982]

i don't see why people are saying we can't afford Lloyd AND Wayne, when there has been talk about Mike Wallace already..... Wallace would command more money than these two combined IMO. Re-signing Welker and then Branch cheap.. then getting these two in would be great. Get a 2/3/4th round WR to return kicks and take some snaps as #4/#5 in depth chart initially and we're good to go...

Welker, Lloyd, Wayne, Drafted WR , Branch

Wallace would cost a first round pick + 10 million per year and he is not any better then Torrey Smith who the ravens got in the 2th round last year, Wayne and Lloyd would be at lest 6 million each + Welker's 8 or 9 million i just cant see the pats spending 20 million on WR's when two of the biggest play makers they had on last years 31th ranked defense are both FA's

 

[letekro]

Wallace would cost a first round pick + 10 million per year and he is not any better then Torrey Smith who the ravens got in the 2th round last year, Wayne and Lloyd would be at lest 6 million each + Welker's 8 or 9 million i just cant see the pats spending 20 million on WR's when two of the biggest play makers they had on last years 31th ranked defense are both FA's

Agreed. Lloyd OR Wayne plus a draft pick makes the most sense.

 

[ausbacker]

Doesn't matter. Most WRs hit the age wall fast and hard in their mid-30. See Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Cris Carter, Hines Ward, Chad Ochocinco, etc. I can almost guarantee you that Wayne will be really good one year, be mediocre the next, and then retire. It is a standard pattern of great, elite WRs whose careers aren't ended by injuries. Some hold on a year too long like Hines Ward, but most drop to well under 1,000 receiving and see the handwriting on the wall.

Wayne will in the next few years turn to average or worse overnight (well, from one season to the next). It could be as soon as this fall. It could be in 2013. It could be 2014. But is very likely to happen. It is a trend with WRs. Odds are good that he will not have more than a year or two before it happens.

That's why he doesn't get a long term deal.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

Couple of days ago it was reported that Wayne was catching passes from P Manning down in South Beach, FL. So who really knows. Also reported was that Wallace from Steelers would consider Pats a Thread I posted. I guess top Receivers falling out of favor via URFA, FA, QB possible leaving etc wheather their rivals with Pats have to consider playing for us. They will always take into account that Brady throwing to them, Belichick coaching they chances of success are high year in & year out.

I'd like to have 2 WR's that are available if cap possible with concerns with our D.

A BIG savy receiver that can go up & over DBs.
Laurent Robinson, Colston

And a speeedy or shifty get open receiver like
Wallace, Lloyd, Wayne

 

[Rob0729]

It's not like he'll be getting an offer for a five year contract. They sign him and get 1 or 2 good years out of him and it's a good signing. I don't see what the issue is here.

You mean he is exactly what I said. He is an 1-2 year stop gap?

 

[Rob0729]

That's why he doesn't get a long term deal.

So you counter my argument because you agree with me that he is only an one to two year solution?

 

[Marqui]

You mean he is exactly what I said. He is an 1-2 year stop gap?

Isn't that kind of automatically assumed when we're talking about a 34 yr/old receiver?

 

[Rob0729]

Isn't that kind of automatically assumed when we're talking about a 34 yr/old receiver?

Sure. But that is why I would rather have Lloyd. Wayne is going to hit the age wall and it could be in the 2012 season. It is a bit of a risk.

 

[MaineMan]

8 months younger:

Branch-DOB 7-18-79
Wayne-DOB 11-17-78, will turn 34 during the season

I stand corrected on Wayne's b-day. Thought it was 1977.

Thanks.

 

[MaineMan]

The Manning Colts ran a very simple offense - always have. Two formations, WR almost always line up in the same spot, and compared to a lot of teams not a lot of plays. They just executed it at a very high level.

IMHO, part of the success of that execution was due to Wayne (and Clark, Harrison, et al) knowing where to get open and when based on reading what the defense was doing exactly the same way Manning had, and then making the proper pre-arranged route option and route adjustment. These "pre-arrangements" between Manning and his targets were extensive. This, to me, is the essential part of the "system" that the Mannings-Colts and the Brady-Patriots may have in common. Has nothing to do with the variety of formations, really, though the Pats obviously run way more "looks".

Seems to me that every team at least TRIES to execute this type of thing at some level at least some of the time, but many don't employ it as extensively because they don't have a QB who can read/execute it as well as Brady and Manning, much less the pass-catchers who can grasp it. But it's not really an "either/or" thing to me, it's a spectrum - with Brady/Manning/Brees on the on hand and the offenses operated by "gunslingers" such as Cutler and Roethlisberger pretty much at the other end - not that they NEVER use options/adjustments/timing, just that the systematic pre-arrangements aren't as extensive.

So, my original point was that a guy like Wayne, who's had extensive experience (and consistent success) doing this sort of thing, MAY have an easier time getting up to speed with Brady than a guy who coming from an offense where options/adjustments were relatively rarely as methodical. It's still no guarantee for Wayne, since there would still be extensive differences for him to master.

 

[MaineMan]

You mean he is exactly what I said. He is an 1-2 year stop gap?

Pretty much what BB has been doing for most of his tenure with the Pats. He's acquired literally nine times as many 1-2 year veteran stop-gaps at WR than he's drafted legitimate WR prospects for long-term development.

 

[Ring 6]

i don't see why people are saying we can't afford Lloyd AND Wayne, when there has been talk about Mike Wallace already..... Wallace would command more money than these two combined IMO. Re-signing Welker and then Branch cheap.. then getting these two in would be great. Get a 2/3/4th round WR to return kicks and take some snaps as #4/#5 in depth chart initially and we're good to go...

Welker, Lloyd, Wayne, Drafted WR , Branch

You want to spend 20mill a year on 3 WRs?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

He just doesn't realize they aren't going to spend $20M on the entire WR unit. Nor should they, nor will they have to. They can field Welker (at the tag or on a longer term deal) plus Lloyd or Wayne (and after hearing some of the combine chatter Reiss is not off the Wayne bandwagon and on the Lloyd one), plus Branch as insurance, plus Edleman as insurance, plus a developmental WR they draft or undraft for about $15-17M. They spent that much on the unit back in 2008-2009 when they were spending more on less impactful TE's to boot.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

He just doesn't realize they aren't going to spend $20M on the entire WR unit. Nor should they, nor will they have to. They can field Welker (at the tag or on a longer term deal) plus Lloyd or Wayne (and after hearing some of the combine chatter Reiss is not off the Wayne bandwagon and on the Lloyd one), plus Branch as insurance, plus Edleman as insurance, plus a developmental WR they draft or undraft for about $15-17M. They spent that much on the unit back in 2008-2009 when they were spending more on less impactful TE's to boot.

Plus we have to consider the dead cap dollars after we cut Ocho, which IIRC amounts to close to 3M, so even in your scenario the WR budget is stretched perhaps further than we would go, particularly if any contracts extend into the years in which we need to first extend Gronk and Hernandez.

 

[goheels22002]

The issue with Wayne is contract length. As his former GM noted, he's not able to get the sort of separation that he used to. That's not going to improve with time, and he's going to be a relative non-factor downfield in another year or two.

If he takes a one year deal, it's a great signing. If he gets 3 year deal kind of numbers, it's just asking for trouble.

The Patriots are getting younger, not older. I do not see Wayne coming to NE unless, as you say, it's a one-year deal. But why would he do that if he can get a three-year deal elsewhere? I don't see him coming to the Patriots.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

You mean he is exactly what I said. He is an 1-2 year stop gap?

Proclaiming that it is very likely a receiver approaching his mid thirties will have his skills fade sometime within the next three years is not exactly earth shattering news. I don't think anyone involved in the discussion has him part of the long term plans.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Plus we have to consider the dead cap dollars after we cut Ocho, which IIRC amounts to close to 3M, so even in your scenario the WR budget is stretched perhaps further than we would go, particularly if any contracts extend into the years in which we need to first extend Gronk and Hernandez.

Dead cap sucks but you can't allow it to impact present or future moves. It's sunk cost. And it's not part of any unit's budget. To view it as such would just compound an earlier error. They will save $1.5M if they cut Chad. Add that to Welker's $4.5M base and they only need to come up with about $2.5M more to fund his new deal. Add in $5-6M for the outside WR (Lloyd or Wayne), another $1M or so for Branch, and another $1-2M for Edelman and a rookie drafted in the second or third round or later. Total $17M or so. They spent around $12M to field the 2011 unit, so an upgrade of $5M. Well worth it to create a margin for error they didn't have last season. They could easily minimally tweek a couple of deals to generate that if they needed to, but at roughly $24M under they don't appear to even need to.

And FWIW if they do extend the TE's it will likely happen late this year or early next just a year before the cap increases dramatically and they will likely be long term extensions that can be structured to hit the cap well below average in their first year. And their long term goal should remain to draft and develop lower cost alternatives within the next 2-3 seasons. It's all positionally cyclical and the guys who build this roster layer the cap accordingly.

 

[MaineMan]

The Patriots are getting younger, not older. I do not see Wayne coming to NE unless, as you say, it's a one-year deal. But why would he do that if he can get a three-year deal elsewhere? I don't see him coming to the Patriots.

Depends on:
- what Wayne wants out of the rest of his career
- how realistic he is about his own potential longevity
- his own ability to master the pats offense quickly
- how realistic he is about how that "3-year deal elsewhere" may be structured

At his age, he's made, cumulatively, some serious coin already. The $$ difference between what he might be guaranteed on a likely-to-be-heavily-backloaded 3-year deal "elsewhere" and a 1-year deal from the Pats might not be all that significant (might be "only" a million or so). Odds are, also, that a 3-year deal might only be offered by teams that are somewhat less likely to make it to the SB than the Pats.

If he's realistic about his potential longevity, he knows he may not actually see the end of a 3-year deal anywhere.

So, for him, it may come down to spending the what could be the final year of his career with an excellent chance of making it to another SB, or playing that final season for a would-be contender for just slightly more money.

I'm not saying that Wayne WOULD make such a decision in favor of the Pats, just that I'm not making any assumptions that he won't.

 

[Rob0729]

Proclaiming that it is very likely a receiver approaching his mid thirties will have his skills fade sometime within the next three years is not exactly earth shattering news. I don't think anyone involved in the discussion has him part of the long term plans.

The problem is at age 34, he could hit the age wall THIS SEASON. That is why he is a risk.

 

[stcjones]

Agree...3-4 yrs ago I would have been ecstatic at the thought of Wayne coming here....but he has dropped off the past two years. I hope Pats don't spend alot on him. If we're going to spend alot...go for Colston or Vjax

There's no way this team affords Wayne/Lloyd while adding defensive help.

That said, it's a little tough to get excited about an older Wayne when there's so much quality on the FA market this year for WRs. I think a good 3-4 (tops) year deal would be very much worth our time, if nothing else pans out.