Thoughts on the big 5. Kinda weird to do it after the draft but here is my break down and thoughts.
Trevor Lawrence - The next great borderline HOFer.
Pros - Very athletic for a guy whose clearly a pocket passer above all else. Has good to great accuracy on all throws. Plays with an attitude and no fear. Shows good command and movement within the pocket. Doesn't seem to panic or show much concern with guys in his face.
Cons - Throws with his arm too much as opposed to his hips and legs. Needs to learn to give up on plays. Particularly his running plays. Seems robotic/stiff at times with his throws. Often not putting the proper touch on certain balls. Has always been able to 'out talent' his opponents. Take that away from him and will he have issues? Seemed overly reliant on 'Plan A'. He was great at attacking openings but didn't create them within the pocket enough for my liking.
How I see his career - He seems bust proof, but is he the next guy? I don't think so. Something about him seems off to me. Put him against an elite D and what is the one thing that will carry him through? I don't see it. Seems like a Jack of all trades master of none who will put up great numbers but stumble against better teams more often than not. Also I seriously worry about injuries being a thing for him. Also his throwing style makes me concerned. A few times I saw him back up and throw with only his arm (which is a bad habit of his) and the ball hung a little because of it. I see him falling in that very good but not great range.
Zac Wilson - The Red Pill or the Blue Pill?
Pros - Good touch on his passes. Shows good ability to improvise on the fly. Seems to have a good idea of when to slide and when to put his head down. Not perfect but solid mechanics when he's right; still throws a little too much with his arm when he's set. That's normal for college QBs though. Usually has a great sense for the WR's body and the defender's body, and throws to places where his WR's body with sheild the ball on contested throws.
Cons - Leaves his feet WAY too often for no reason. Mechanics break down when not given a clean pocket and it shows on his passes a tad. Too much of a risk taker. Got away with a lot of things he won't at the NFL level. Appears to have a touch of the 'happy feet' when forced to stay in the pocket past his first read. Accuracy seems inconsistent.
How I see his career - Wilson to me has a higher upside than Lawrence, but a lot more risk. I could definitely see him busting. Not to say I think he will, but it wouldn't surprise me. A lot of the teams he played were massively over matched or things fell his way. He's throws the occasional perfect touch pass to the perfect spot, but at other times it's off and his mechanics look to be to blame. I worry about his happy feet tendency the most. I worry about the clock in his head getting sped up in the NFL just a tick more than it can take. He is smoother at times than Lawrence and can improvise better than the more 'stiff' QB, but it also comes off too loose and in danger of unwinding. If he puts it together he is almost Mahomes. If not, he is a bust.
Mac Jones - They don't make em like this anymore
Pros - Does just about everything at a high to elite level you'd like to see a pure pocket passer do. Pro ready day 1. Mechanics are incredibly solid for a college QB. Shows good ability to manipulate a D from the pocket and win with his mind, not just his arm. Comparisons to Brady, but more accurately Brees, seem spot on. More athletic and faster than you've been led to believe. Has a great sense of the moment and risk vs reward. Doesn't seem to rattle or need his first read to win, but there isn't as much evidence of that as I'd like.
Cons - If he can't get by with his arm within the pocket, he can't get it done. To win only within the pocket, you need to be great at it. Being great is rare and is impossible to project.
How I see his career - The more I think about it, the more I like that he was the guy who fell to the Patriots. A lot of talk was made about how stacked his offense was, and how few games he played. I agree both are good points. However, he also opened things up for his WRs just like they did for him. He did everything you'd like him to do at the highest level. And when forced to throw with pressure and not to his first few reads he did so successfully. Mac Jones has a sneaky high floor. And his Ceiling is as high as anyone's in this draft. Running is good, but super bowls are won and lost in the pocket.
Justin Fields - The exception to the rule.
Pros - Among the best mechanics in the draft. Looks smooth and efficient in just about everything he does. Extremely relaxed when in the pocket and when guys are coming at it. To me it looks like the game already slowed down for him. Has very good touch on his passes and throws with his lower body, not his arm or shoulder. Is deadly on a role out. When he decides he wants to run, he's very hard to stop. Doesn't need to run to beat you though. Very good touch. Looks like a true duel threat that can be effective in both. Something often advertised, rarely realized.
Cons - He looks to me like he already hit his ceiling or close to it. Accuracy is only okay, and I don't see a way to improve it mechanically, as he's already doing so many of those things right. Could just be his manor on the field, but he seems to lack 'fire' to me. The fact he transferred schools is a concern. I prefer guys who want to beat out competition as opposed to take the easier path to start.
How I see his career - I like a lot of things about his game. At times he looks like a natural pocket passer, rare for a guy with his athletic ability. He also looks calm and in control, but the lack of intensity (at least that i perceive) on the field is worrying. I think he'll succeed at the NFL level, but I do see him make too many inaccurate passes. I think his interceptions will be higher than most would suspect at this level. I see him being another coming of Murray and Watson more than a Jackson. But like Watson, I see him having issues getting over the hump, even as he looks sensational doing it. The errant passes will be just enough to trip an otherwise very good QB up.
Trey Lance - Elite with the feet, Joe with the throw
Pros - Has a high floor. Will be virtually unstoppable when sprung on the league. His passing in good enough that it needs to be respected. Makes good choices with the ball, rarely puts it in jeopardy. Will be extremely hard to stop at the goal line. Will be a near impossible match up for certain defenses if they aren't built to handle him.
Cons - Seems twitchy in the pocket, like he is always looking to run. A number of plays shouldn't have worked out for him that did, due to playing guys way too far below his athletic class. Teams will start to figure out how to play him better every year. With Lamar already being in the league for a few years, he won't be as big of as surprise. Teams with adapt faster due to that.
How I see his career - Thankfully, Lance was drafted into the NFC. This is key for the early part of his career. IF he went in the NFC where Jackson already was, he wouldn't have been able to catch as many teams unprepared for a guy like him. Each year Lamar has looked less and less threatening. Lance will follow a similar pattern as they are similar players. I see him having the most success the first year of his career. Like RG3 and Lamar did. If the 49ers are smart, they will sit on him until late in the year, then sit Fitzpatrick for him going into the playoffs. Like all QBs that run this much, it is the cornerstone of his game. That makes you feel as if there is a ticking time bomb hanging over his head.
My order of these 5..
#1 Lawrence - I have to take the sure ceiling which is insanely high over other guys, even if I don't think he has that it factor to take that final step to become a top 10 all time QB.
#2 Jones - The more I see the more I like. When we look back 10 years from now I might kick myself for not saying it was clear he had the best chance to be the best QB in this class.
#3 Fields - I really see him being somewhere between Murray and Winston. A very similar player.
#4 Wilson - The odds say at least 2 of these 5 have to be disappointing. Wilson will be the one. F the Jets.
#5 Lance - Will be very good early, then pretty good until an injury slows him down. If I was the 49ers I would not resign him after his 5th year. I hate long term big deals on QBs like this.
