I know your premise was merely upside and promise from some areas we haven't seen in a while however the thread kind of gained momentum from there. So I was just adding some perspective and predicting that the first sign of trouble all that northward hyperbole will go south twice as fast.
You make a good point here Mayo. I know people get frustrated sometimes with BB's "bend but don't break" defensive philosophy. But the bottom line is that although it gives up a lot of yards, in the end it consistently produces results in the 2 most important areas of scoring and turn overs.
People sometimes forget that in the Pats first 2 superbowls the defense ranked in the mid 20's in total defense. It seems odd to say, but its not about the yards, its about the scoring. I understand that we'd all LIKE to see a shut down style defense, which creates a large amount of 3 and outs, but that's not necessary to have a "superbowl" defense.
The ultimate goal of a defense is to be in the top 5 in scoring.....period. Where you are in yards, sacks, 3rd down conversions, etc really doesn't matter (although it doesn't hurt if they are good too.) Scoring and stats related to scoring like red zone defense are the real numbers to watch.
We are used to saying that BB is the best coach in the league. But think about this. Since 2008, BB's teams have won 11, 10, 14, and 13 games in the regular season, while totally revamping his defense. Injuries, and some questionable personnel decisions, rendered last year's Pats defense one of the worst in league history in yards allowed. Yet it was good enough to get to the superbowl and THEN hold one of the top offenses in the league to just 21 points (and that's including the safety and the give up TD). That's pretty amazing stuff.
The history of BB's defenses with the Pats includes the following:
1. They tend to get better as the season goes on.
2. They tend to produce a fair amount of turnovers, and tighten up in the red zone.
3. They tend to be in the top 10 in fewest points allowed.
4. They tend to give up more yardage than #1-3 would suggest.
The talent on this year's group seems noticeably improved compared with previous years. Given that, and given BB's past history, I would reasonably hope for something like the following:
1. A defense which starts out with a few glitches, but which is recognizably one of the 10 best (or even better) in the NFL by the end of the season, and which isn't viewed as a liability in the playoffs.
2. Limiting opponent to under 20 PPG. The 2007 and 2009 defenses around 17 PPG, the 2008 and 2010 defenses around 19 PPG.
3. Continuing to be among the league leaders in turnovers. Better pressure up front combined with improvements in the secondary should help.
4. Markedly better 3rd down defense.
5. Producing more situational big plays.
6. Better communication in the secondary, with less big plays being given up.
7. A slightly more aggressive approach, with less BBDB than we've seen in the past. The 2011 team gave up a ton of yards and points in the 4th quarter once the Pats had a big lead. It may not have impacted the results, but it just didn't sit very well with me.
Maybe that's too much to hope for. It's early. But I'm "cautiously optimistic".