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Is Jonnu Smith the X factor?

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Oct 2nd
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Wozzy

In the Starting Line-Up
Smith's numbers weren't really that far off from his career averages. I think he is what he is.
His career numbers are also deceptive... the Titans ranked 31st then 30th in pass attempts his last two seasons.

Last season the Patriots ranked 25th in pass attempts and Jonnu missed time in camp and OTA's with issues outside of football.

His best season in Tennessee was his last one, he had 65 targets... compare that to a Pro Bowl TE last year like Mark Andrews. Andrews received 153 targets last season... that's more than double Jonnu's career high, 88 more targets. That has to be considered in evaluations.

I envision Keith Byers type production for Jonnu, with maybe less rushing the ball. With a massive influx of opportunities he could have 600-800 yards receiving, 100-300 yards rushing... I could see him nearing 1000 yards of total scrimmage yards.

If that happened (or close to it) and he was blocking like he was in Tennessee, he would be worth every penny they're paying him.
 

TheRazorsEdge

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Yes. He is supposed to the be X Factor. He is paid to be the X Factor. The things he can do in theory (YAC, Out "Athlete" the Defense) make him an X Factor. He should finish as one of our top receiving options statistically for his contract to make any sense.

If he came as advertised last year - and we won't go into if it was McDaniels or Mac being a rookie or Jonnu not picking up the offense (prob a mix of all 3) - but if he played up to snuff the offense would have been much better.

I'm expecting one of the biggest/first things on the offensive coaching staff's "To-Do" list this season is to get him going early and often.
 

captain stone

Hall of Fame Poster
Jonnu being a move TE should be stretching the seams with H Henry underneath. We should be much faster on Offense inside and out.

Jonnu & Mac & the Seam route were a total Disaster last season... They nearly had almost a half-dozen balls picked-off just from that alone... Leave those routes for Double H please... Jonnu's more of a Wheel/Reverse/Sluggo kinda guy...
 

stinkypete

In the Starting Line-Up
More like the suX factor.

Just kidding, if Smith performs like 2020, it will be huge for the offense as a whole.

I just don't expect anything resembling a 100 scrimmage yard season. If he can put up a 45-500-5 kind of stat line, block well, and pitch in with a few big gains on gadget runs, he'll help open up every other element of this offense.
 

203Pat

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
His career numbers are also deceptive... the Titans ranked 31st then 30th in pass attempts his last two seasons.

Last season the Patriots ranked 25th in pass attempts and Jonnu missed time in camp and OTA's with issues outside of football.

His best season in Tennessee was his last one, he had 65 targets... compare that to a Pro Bowl TE last year like Mark Andrews. Andrews received 153 targets last season... that's more than double Jonnu's career high, 88 more targets. That has to be considered in evaluations.

I envision Keith Byers type production for Jonnu, with maybe less rushing the ball. With a massive influx of opportunities he could have 600-800 yards receiving, 100-300 yards rushing... I could see him nearing 1000 yards of total scrimmage yards.

If that happened (or close to it) and he was blocking like he was in Tennessee, he would be worth every penny they're paying him.
That is good context that he came from a run heavy team and landed on a run first team last year. I don’t think he will get in the 1000 scrimmage yard range but if he landed in the 600-800 yard range I would be pretty happy. He is a capable blocker and maybe with a new play caller and Mac having another year under his belt they will find ways to get Jonnu the ball more. All in all he is an athlete who is capable of beating a decent amount of the guys who will line up in front of him and that is something this offense has needed for a while.
 

kennyb

In the Starting Line-Up
By X factor do you mean "overpaid, useless, can't/won't block, worst signing of belichick's career"? If so, yes, he has it nailed.
 

mgteich

PatsFans.com Veteran
PatsFans.com Supporter
Bourne, Henry, Myers
An improved Mac will get added production from Parker, Smith, Thornton and/or Agholor. (and perhaps from White)

Folks seem to think that we can get 500-1000 yard from all of them. That seems unlikely, and unnecessary.

Perhaps Belichick will keep all of the targets. Perhaps one will be traded. This seems possible because it is difficult to see one or two of the WR inactive each week. The Game Day roster just doesn't have room, or need, for 5 WR.

That being said, I could see us extending Agholor and keeping Myers in case of injuries. This would solidify the position for two years, with no worries concerning injuries.
 

LFGMac10

In the Starting Line-Up
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
By X factor do you mean "overpaid, useless, can't/won't block, worst signing of belichick's career"? If so, yes, he has it nailed.
Well we can see why you're still in the starting line up
 

LFGMac10

In the Starting Line-Up
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
You do realize the irony of your post?

You are currently "in the starting line up" yourself and are using it as an insult :rofl:
That's what I get for distracted positing. I read it as something else. I guess it's like rain on your wedding day
 

Patsgofor4

In the Starting Line-Up
Well we can see why you're still in the starting line up

If Patsfans.com was part of the real world, he would have been cut long ago, for piss poor performance, and intractable b;tching/whining. Many “starters”, “vet starters on second contract” and “pro bowl players” here would have also been asked to turn in their playbooks long ago and would be now be driving Ubers and Amazon trucks.

I, on the other hand, would be a franchise cornerstone who is thought to be criminally underpaid by his peers and adoring fans. ;)



(The Tompa-Gronka thread regulars would be on trial for Pats Nation treason.) :cool:
 

scott99

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
My thoughts are, Smith will have a rebound year, and be an explosive weapon for Jones. Same thing with Agholor. Add in Devonte Parker, and this offense will definitely be improved, which is exciting, since the Pats were #6 in points scored.
 

PatsFanInVa

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2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
My thoughts are, Smith will have a rebound year, and be an explosive weapon for Jones. Same thing with Agholor. Add in Devonte Parker, and this offense will definitely be improved, which is exciting, since the Pats were #6 in points scored.
I think looking at this division's leader, the question quickly becomes one of how we got better and is it enough in a shootout. I usually don't go that way but we haven't shown that anything but weather can stop Josh Allen. So what's our best shot to be different and better when it matters?

I think we have more to choose from in the backfield AND at WR. I don't think Parker gives us anthing different or "more" he just helps us not run out of competent receivers once you're at WR 2, 2, or 3. Many No. 2s across the board - him, Meyer, Bourne, Agholar unless he steps up in this the decision year as a deep threat. With the raiders he nearly topped 900 yards in '20, then fell off sharply here, with a rookie QB without the time or tendency to air it out. It could change if that's what was stopping him, with another year of MacDevelopment. By the way I want to suggest that if Jones has a really torrid streak we call it a Mac Flurry.

For difference-makers you have to look to Tre Nixon and possibly TyThorn (today's nickname, not to be confused with TyMonty in the backfield).
Both of them have that elusive speed trait... Tre Nixon is everybody's pick to step up and was THE standout in minicamp, so the binkie leader. Thornton obviously wins any footrace on this team, but we will see what that translates to and when... I think by the point when we were drafting the 10th receiver off the board, we -- and others -- were willing to roll the dice on that speed trait and other decent supporting evidence. We'll see. He might be a blazing fast dark horse candidate to make noise, but he is still a dark horse. Kristian Wilkerson is a sneakyish pick to actually add something, but I'm scared to put too much stock in that one.

Jonnu Smith is a guy who got 1/2 of the shoot-the-moon, freespending tight end money. We double dipped, reasoning that at least one of them would have HH's production, and one of them did. I am sure we'd love if both of them did. Do we have enough 2 TE (passing) sets to feed them both, and will a step up for Mac affect how often he can look for both, if that was part of the Jonnu issue last year? Imunno. I'd love to see Jonnu not lost (which he looked at times) and not disappearing. He was an average TE. I'd love to see him start playing at the high end.

So X factor? I guessss.... extending drives etc. always benefits from a stacked roster of qualified targets and we have that, and we'll have it that much more if Jonnu blooms. I see the X factor in the passing game coming from (1) Mac Jones [if so enabled by o-line play] and (2) A speed guy panning out. That could include Nelson Ahlgolong but we have at least one other guy in the 4.4 neighborhood, and TyThorn in the sub-4.3 neighborhood. Extra production might be X factor junior, but I'll believe it when I see it.

I am not used to spewing bromides about "taking the top off a defense" or "stretching the field" or whatever cliche is current right now, but dude, we're looking across the field at Josh Allen. Guess we need to get used to counting our firepower for the shootouts.

Edit: I didn't realize Wilkerson also has 4.46 speed, and is 6'1, not taller. I guess I went by (bad) memory... I dont see him coming out of nowhere in camp but again, you never know. He definitely made the best of the Jags opportunity last year and has chemistry w M Jones. I originally characterized him as "big" in this post, and he's beefy but not super tall at 6'1, 225. Very quick, pretty fast, very in tune with Mac. Hmmmm. Let's wait for camp before I get crazy.
 
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Rob0729

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Smith may benefit most from the reported changes in offense. I think if they simplify things for the receivers and go to a Shanahan type of offense where there is a lot of presnap motion and not a lot of presnap adjustments, that is going to give Smith a lot of opportunities he didn't have last year. He won't have to figure out presnap reads and make route adjustments (which seemed to be his biggest issue last year) and he will likely have a lot of free releases from the line when he is sent in motion.

A lot of people are saying they are simplifying the offense for Mac Jones, but I think it is more for the receivers. That is assuming they are actually do a lot of simplification. To be honest, over the years the Patriots offense was probably more complicated than it needed to be and a lot of receiver failed in the system because of it (especially some of the older WRs who came to the Pats late in their career after playing in more straight forward offenses like OchoCinco, who struggled quite a bit with the playbook). But when you have the GOAT as your QB, you build the offense around him and that is the offense he was comfortable with and thrived on. With a new OC and QB, you can simplify things for the receivers. And I think no one may benefit more from that than Jonnu Smith.
 

n6249c

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PatsFans.com Supporter

I, on the other hand, would be a franchise cornerstone who is thought to be criminally underpaid overpaid by his peers and adoring fans. ;)
FIFY

I mean, this is Patsfans. When do we ever say anyone is underpaid?
 

Patriot Missile

Pro Bowl Player
Smith may benefit most from the reported changes in offense. I think if they simplify things for the receivers and go to a Shanahan type of offense where there is a lot of presnap motion and not a lot of presnap adjustments, that is going to give Smith a lot of opportunities he didn't have last year. He won't have to figure out presnap reads and make route adjustments (which seemed to be his biggest issue last year) and he will likely have a lot of free releases from the line when he is sent in motion.

A lot of people are saying they are simplifying the offense for Mac Jones, but I think it is more for the receivers. That is assuming they are actually do a lot of simplification. To be honest, over the years the Patriots offense was probably more complicated than it needed to be and a lot of receiver failed in the system because of it (especially some of the older WRs who came to the Pats late in their career after playing in more straight forward offenses like OchoCinco, who struggled quite a bit with the playbook). But when you have the GOAT as your QB, you build the offense around him and that is the offense he was comfortable with and thrived on. With a new OC and QB, you can simplify things for the receivers. And I think no one may benefit more from that than Jonnu Smith.
Its a lot easier to simplify the offense with that running game. This is the year to do it. Looking to see something more similar to what Minnesota runs. Add to the fact that Mac is going to kill the deep ball this year and I think fans are going to see an excited offense again.
 

Wozzy

In the Starting Line-Up
I didn't realize Wilkerson also has 4.46 speed, and is 6'1, not taller. I guess I went by (bad) memory... I dont see him coming out of nowhere in camp but again, you never know. He definitely made the best of the Jags opportunity last year and has chemistry w M Jones. I originally characterized him as "big" in this post, and he's beefy but not super tall at 6'1, 225. Very quick, pretty fast, very in tune with Mac. Hmmmm. Let's wait for camp before I get crazy.
Wilkerson measured 6'1" 200 pounds at his pro day, he ran a 4.50 forty... but where he really excelled was agility and explosion... which is why I love him in the slot if his hands are working.

His shuttle and cone are exceptional, unique for his size and best among all WR's. Now that Edelman is gone he is the quickest WR on the team, he can create the "separation" that the weapons crowd rant and rave about so often.

I like Meyers, he's a great route runner, finds soft spots in zones, has great hands, size and can block... but from a pure athleticism standpoint Wilkerson deserves a shot in the slot if his dropsies are fixed. He's quicker, faster and more explosive.
 

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