Investing in the OL

[One-If-By-Sea]

BTW, here is the Pats draft investment in the OL this decade:

2020: IOL Mike Onwenu (6/182), OL Justin Herron (6/195), OC Dustin Woodard (7/230)

2021: OL William Sherman (6/197)

2022: IOL Cole Strange (1/29), IOL Chasen Hines(6/210), OT Andrew Stueber (7/245)

2023: OC Jake Andrews (4/107), OL Sidy Sow (4/117), IOL Atonio Mafi (5/144)

2024: OL Caedan Wallace (3/68), IOL Layden Robinson (4/103)

2025: OT Will Campbell (1/4), IOL Jared Wilson (3/95), OT Marcus Bryant (7/220)

2026: OT Caleb Lomu (1/28), OT Dametrious Crownover (6/105)

Prior to 2025, an awful lot of throwing sh*t at the line and hoping something would stick.

Onwenu, Strange, Andrews, Sow, Mafi (RFA), Wallace, Robinson, Campbell, Wilson, Bryant, Lomu, and Crownover are all still in the NFL. If you are looking to draft guys that remain in the NFL that is a 71% hit rate. That is a lot of **** sticking to the wall.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is correct. Every position is not ranked equally. OL is critical.

Rank them. I'll let you know if you are correct.

Very rough, but for me:

1. QB. We are fortunate, we have the best young QB in the NFL. Drake Maye is the most valuable property in the NFL.

2a. OL. You have to protect the
QB, give him time, keep him upright, keep him healthy. OT > IOL, but the OL needs to operate as a unit.

2b. DL, both IDL and EDGE. You need to put pressure on the other team's QB, and stop the run. Internal pressure more difficult to counter than outside pressure.

3. Secondary. Outside CB > nickel and S, but the unit needs to work well at all levels.

4. TEs. Force multipliers and Queens on the chessboard.

5. WRs.

6. LBs.

7. RBs.

I am not diminishing any unit. Good or great LBs can be the glue that makes a great defense, and versatile RBs who can rush, catch and block are almost as valuable as a true Y-TE. But generally, 1-3 are the units that can dominate to the point of winning a SB, especially when you have more than one of those 4.

Connecting this to the OP, my goal is not to plug a hole at RG. It is to build the most talented, athletic, versatile and deepest OL in the NFL to protect and optimize the ability of the most valuable commodity in the NFL: Drake Maye. That requires more than just a mid-round investment in an adequate RG.

RG is often considered the least important position on the OL and the easiest to fill, but many teams have put their best lineman there, including 1st round picks like David DeCastro and Quinton Nelson. I want the equivalent of 2 healthy AVTs at LG and RG.

 

[mayoclinic]

Onwenu, Strange, Andrews, Sow, Mafi (RFA), Wallace, Robinson, Campbell, Wilson, Bryant, Lomu, and Crownover are all still in the NFL. If you are looking to draft guys that remain in the NFL that is a 71% hit rate. That is a lot of **** sticking to the wall.

I qualified before 2025. 6/12 picks from 2020-2024 are still currently active (Onwenu, Strange, Andrews, Sow, Robinson and Wallace). 50%. Onwenu has been the most productive of the bunch. Strange has lived up to his name: so athletic, but injuries took a huge toll.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I qualified before 2025. 6/12 picks from 2020-2024 are still currently active (Onwenu, Strange, Andrews, Sow, Robinson and Wallace). 50%. Onwenu has been the most productive of the bunch. Strange has lived up to his name: so athletic, but injuries took a huge toll.

Strange and Campbell might end up being a bit similar? Very athletic but struggle with power rushers? Campbell was injured in his rookie year.

 

[mayoclinic]

I sure hope not.

 

[JoeSixPat]

The Pats have used the #4 and 28 picks on offensive tackles Will Campbell and Caleb Lomu in the 2025 and 2026 drafts. They also drafted Cole Strange at 29 overall in 2022. That's 3 out of 7 1st round picks this decade. Manx has threatened to become a Jets fan if they draft OT in the first round in 2027 (I'd go with the Dolphins, they just drafted Jacob Rodriguez, Will Kacmarek and Kyle Louis).

To be clear, I do NOT want to draft another top-100 OT in 2027, unless (1) he is projected to move inside, or (2) Will Campbell ends up moving inside. And I do not want to spend our 1st round pick on OL, unless the value is ridiculous.

But I DO want us to continue investing in the OL. It is vitally important. 2026 will answer a lot of questions, but at this time I'd make continuing the OL buildout the main offensive priority in what should otherwise be a defense focused draft.

As @JoeSixPat has noted in another thread:



So how much is too much to invest in the OL? Let's look at what some other teams have done this decade in the 1st round:

- Baltimore: 2022 OC Tyler Linderbaum (25), 2026 IOL Olaivavega Ioane (14)
- Carolina: 2022 OT Ikem Ekwonu (6), 2026 OT Monroe Freeling (19)
- Cleveland: 2020 OT Jedrick Wills (10), 2026 OL Spencer Fano (9)
- Dallas: 2022 OT Tyler Smith (24), 2024 OT Tyler Guyton (29), 2025 IOL Tyler Booker (12)
- Detroit: 2021 OT Penei Sewell (7), 2026 OT Blake Miller (17)
- Houston: 2022 IOL Kenyon Green (15), 2026 IOL Keylan Rutledge (26)
- LA Chargers: 2021 OT Rashawn Slater (13), 2022 IOL Zion Young (17), 2024 OT Joe Alt (5)
- Miami: 2020 OT Austin Jackson (18), 2026 OL Kadyn Proctor (12)
- Minnesota: 2021 OT Christian Darrisaw (23), 2025 OL Donovan Jackson (24)
- New Orleans: 2020 OC Cesar Ruiz (24), 2022 OL Trevor Penning (19), 2024 OL Taliese Fuega (14), 2025 OT Kelvin Banks (9)
- NY Giants: 2020 OT Andrew Thomas (4), 2022 OT Evan Neal (7), 2026 OL Francis Mauigoa (10)
- NY Jets: 2020 OT Mekhi Beckton (11), 2021 OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (14), 2024 OT Ola Fashanu (11), 2025 OT Armand Membou (7)
- Pittsburgh: 2023 OT Broderick Jones (14), 2024 OT Troy Fautanu (20), 2026 OT Max Iheanachor (21)
- Seattle: 2022 OT Charles Cross (9), 2025 IOL Grey Zabel (17)
- Tampa Bay: 2020 OT Tristan Wirfs (13), 2024 OC Graham Barton (26)
- Tennessee: 2020 OT Isaiah Wilson (29), 2023 OL Peter Skoronski (11), 2024 OT JC Latham (7)

So including the Patriots, 17/32 teams have taken 2 or more 1st round OLs this decade. Many teams have taken back to back 1st tound OLs (the Falcons also took 2 in 2019), and used their 1st round pick on OL 3 out of 4 years. 25% (8/32) took 1st round OLs 3 or more years so far this decade.

The league values OLs, they have a relatively high 1st (and 2nd) round success rate, and they seldom reach FA. It's good investment policy.

The Pats are finally catching up in investing in the OL. Unless they get lucky again in FA (Ikem Ekwonu and Broderick Jones may reach FA this year due to injuries), expect them to continue to invest in the OL.

Great research!

I'd throw in a caveat that it depends on the draft and where you are picking

I'm generalizing but if you have a Top 10 pick and you have a high need (QB or key defensive player) then you can be somewhat confident that you'll get a starter no matter which position you pick.

If you are drafting later in the 1st round (or 2nd) the likelihood of finding that pro bowl starter start dropping - but less so with OL

With any luck we'll be drafting at #32 for all foreseeable future drafts, making OL a great place to draft for maximum ROI!

 

[sg14]

RG is often considered the least important position on the OL and the easiest to fill, but many teams have put their best lineman there, including 1st round picks like David DeCastro and Quinton Nelson. I want the equivalent of 2 healthy AVTs at LG and RG.

The second half of your first sentence above essentially contradicts the first half.

Also belive i have read that the RG is harder to find. With predominantly right handed QBs it makes sense that the most athletic players are on the left in college.

???

 

[mayoclinic]

The second half of your first sentence above essentially contradicts the first half.

Also belive i have read that the RG is harder to find. With predominantly right handed QBs it makes sense that the most athletic players are on the left in college.

???

Not really. Many teams neglect the position, filling it with their least athletic lineman. That's what we have now. A competent "people mover" but limiting the overall line in what it can accomplish. A few teams opt for more.

I want more.

 

[mgteich]

This time last year wople were speculating that Marcus Bryant was a steal, would be our swing tackle for 2025, and could be our successor to Morgan Moses at RT. That doesn't seem very likely at the moment.

I like Dametrious Crownover. He could possibly be a starting right tackle, but I think it far more likely he becomes a competent swing tackle, which would be just fine for a 6th round pick, and along with Ben Brown give us quality depth across the line. That is very important.

Will Campbell has never played guard in his life, and was playing at a pretty good level as a rookie prior to being injured. I don't understand the rush to push him inside.

My best case plausible scenario right now:

- Campbell and Lomu are the long term starters at OT. Figure out who is best where. Dametrious Crownover becomes a quality swing tackle. Maybe Marcus Bryant develops into a decent #4 tackle.

- Jared Wilson becomes a quality OC, AVT stays healthy and gives you a quality starters at either guard spot (and a backup tackle in a pinch), Ben Brown is a quality depth rotational IOL.

In that scenario I still want a quality starting IOL at either RG or LG, preferably one like AVT with a high level of athleticism and some G/T versatility. I'd love to fill that in FA if another AVT type of opportunity presents itself. I think that is highly unlikely, but a year ago I would never have imagined we would land AVT. Otherwise, there are 6+ guys right now in the draft who I would target, and I hope at least 1 would fall to day 2 range.

Bryant has to make the team to be a decent 4th OT. Do you think that we are carrying 5 OT's?

 

[mayoclinic]

AVT has experience at both guard spots, so one option for 2027 could be to move him back to RG and fill the LG spot. There are several options for this:

1. Move will Campbell to LG. I am not currently in favor of this, unless he proves to be a liability at OT this season. Presumably Caleb Lomu would cover LT, and we would be back in the boat of looking for a RT successor to Morgan Moses, unless Dametrious Crownover takes a massive leap.

2. Sign a FA. My wet dream for this is Ikem Ekwonu, who is coming off a January patellar tendon injury. Ekwonu has both guard and tackle experience, is highly athletic, and has a mauler mentality.

Panthers' unexpected draft swerve could force a shocking shift for Ikem Ekwonu

This could be an option.

catcrave.com

Imagine Campbell-Ekwonu-Wilson-AVT-Lomu (or switch sides or Limu and Campbell). Then you can ignore OL in the 2027 draft.

3. Draft a day 2 T -> G conversion/hybrid. Jacarrius Peak or PJ Williams. Austin Siereveld or Carter Smith. Cayden Green or Greg Stephens. AVT gives you the flexibility to toggle between LG and RG.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Imagine Campbell-Ekwonu-Wilson-AVT-Lomu (or switch sides or Limu and Campbell).

Too good to be true.

 

[mayoclinic]

Too good to be true.

Agreed - but that's what I would have said a year ago about the chance of getting AVT.

Ekwonu will be a FA after this season if not re-signed. He is getting paid $17M this year, and will miss the entire season.

Carolina may re-sign him prior to FA, but coming off a patellar tendon injury they may hedge their bets and let him test the waters.

What if the Pats offered him the Mike Onwenu deal - 3 years / $57M, $19M AAV. That's $74M over 4 years. Ekwonu would be 29 at the end of that deal, still able to get another payday. Ekwonu and AVT would combine for around $33M AVT, the starting OL would be around $50M and the total OL around $55-60M - less than 20% of the cap. That leaves the team in good position to re-sign Drake Maye and Christian Gonzalez, even if we trade for AJ Brown.

Then sign a TE in FA (Kyle Pitts, TJ Hockenson and Sam LaPorta may be available), some low-cost defensive depth pieces, and spend the 2027 draft reloading the defense.

 

[manxman2601]

With any luck we'll be drafting at #32 for all foreseeable future drafts, making OL a great place to draft for maximum ROI!

This is true of interior OL positions but for OT, you're picking those tackles not deemed good enough to go in the first half of the draft. That may sound obvious but it is an important distinction. Because of the value placed on tackles, any tackle deemed quality starter level would almost certainly go top 15. After that, you're looking at prospects with significant question marks or projections, even if they're judged as 'can start'.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is true of interior OL positions but for OT, you're picking those tackles not deemed good enough to go in the first half of the draft. That may sound obvious but it is an important distinction. Because of the value placed on tackles, any tackle deemed quality starter level would almost certainly go top 15. After that, you're looking at prospects with significant question marks or projections, even if they're judged as 'can start'.

Any blue chip prospects at any position will probably go top 15. There have definitely been some tackle reaches in the top 15. Teams are definitely desperate for the position. But there have still been some later 1st round values:

2021: Christian Darrisaw (23)
2024: Troy Fautanu (20)

But generally, I agree. Josh Conerly had strength issues, Josh Simmons was coming off an injury, Aierontae Ersery had footwork issues, Amarius Mims was physical potential with limited experience, Tyler Guyton had strength issues. Tyler Smith was raw and from a non-Power 5 school, Anton Harrison was RT only. But still, most of these have become or are showing signs of becoming "plus starters", worthy of a 2nd contract. Not bad value.

 

[manxman2601]

My view on this is quite simple as it relates to the draft.

1. If we draft a first round OL next year I will get murderous.

2. Unless they're Quenton Nelson good. I could handle Grey Zabel good.

3. At any other point in the draft, so long as they're clear BPA I could live with it.

4. You can find starting guards in the 3rd - 4th round most years. Remember Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason and Jared Wilson (hopefully).

5. Please take a look at our defensive depth on a depth chart and tell me that shouldn't be the focus for this team next year.

 

[mayoclinic]

My view on this is quite simple as it relates to the draft.

1. If we draft a first round OL next year I will get murderous.

I don't mind you getting murderous. Better than becoming a Jets fan, which is suicidal.

2. Unless they're Quenton Nelson good. I could handle Grey Zabel good.

Jordan Seaton. Maybe Jacarrius Peak.

3. At any other point in the draft, so long as they're clear BPA I could live with it.

4. You can find starting guards in the 3rd - 4th round most years. Remember Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason and Jared Wilson (hopefully).

Day 2 seems more likely. Happy to get a young Joe Thuney or Shaq Mason. The larer the better, but with the league trend on OLs I doubt we'll find top those level of prospects on day 3.

5. Please take a look at our defensive depth on a depth chart and tell me that shouldn't be the focus for this team next year.

Other than an OL at some point, my focus is almost all defense, especially if we trade for AJ Brown.

 

[manxman2601]

I don't mind you getting murderous. Better than becoming a Jets fan, which is suicidal.



Jordan Seaton. Maybe Jacarrius Peak.



Day 2 seems more likely. Happy to get a young Joe Thuney or Shaq Mason. The layer the better, but with the league trend on OLs I doubt we'll find starters in round 4.



Other than an OL at some point, my focus is almost all defense, especially if we trade for AJ Brown.

1. I regret that statement about the Jets. As you say, the Dolphins gets me some binkies. Maybe the Raiders - Keyron Crawford, Treydan Stukes, Mike Washington.

2. I'm thinking more about interior OL. I WILL get suicidal if we draft another tackle. Siereveld, Carter Smith, this Jagusah kid might be the favourites to make that Grey Zabel kind of leap although I doubt it.

3. Interior OLs still fall. Pregnon, Zuhn and Dunker fell to the late 3rd. Jalen Farmer to the 4th. Jager Burton and billy Schrauth to the 5th. I can see all potentially being starters.

 

[mayoclinic]

I am not thinking pure OT (Seaton, Goosby, Prongos) unless Will Campbell moves inside, which is NOT my preferred outcome.

My favorite IOLs are college OT conversions with "tackle feet" and IOL temperment: Logan Mankins, Joe Thuney, Peter Skoronski, AVT, Grey Zabel. If they offer some backup tackle versatility, so much the better, but that's not my focus. So a lot of prospects on my short list are OTs now, but I would be drafting them primarily to play inside, either at RG or LG. AVT gives us flexibility.

My current preferred list for such conversions:

1. Jacarrius Peak
2. PJ Williams
3. Austin Siereveld
4. Carter Smith
5. Brandon Baker
6. Cayden Green

I also include IOLs Kade Pieper and Greg Johnson because of their athleticism and versatility.

Get me any of those 8 guys, the later the better, or sign Ikem Ekwonu, and I'm very happy to prioritize all other resources on defense.

 

[mayoclinic]

Bryant has to make the team to be a decent 4th OT. Do you think that we are carrying 5 OT's?

No, I see 4. I don't see Bryant making the team in 2026, but PS in 2026 and making it in 2027 is a possibility.

 

[bakes781]

The #1 investment should be in scouting. If we draft the right players then it won't matter as much when they were selected. That said I am glad they've invested heavily at OL. It was a clear mistake 3 years ago when they were talking us into Caeden Wallace and down right embarrassing when we were getting laughed at for Cole Strange.