Interesting defensive comparison

[Ring 6]

In another thread a poster suggested the patriots have the better defense in the afccg.

Sounded interesting so I looked at some numbers. I randomly picked mid season. So the stats are game 9 through now, meaning 9 games for the patriots and 10 for Jacksonville and it is VERY interesting.

Points?
Patriots 14.5 per game
Jags. 19.6 per game

Yards?
Patriots 308.8
Jags. 309.6
Who would have thought that? Patriots are allowing fewer yards per game than Jacksonville.

Passing yds allowed
Patriots 206.4
Jags. 206.2

Rushing yds allowed
Patriots. 102.4
Jags 103.4

But the jags are sacksonville and that ferocious 55 sack pass rush will dominate the game right? Wait.
Patriots. 34 sacks in 9 games
Jags. 24 sacks in 10 games.

Jacksonville has more takeaways 21/9 but that doesn’t mean more than a 5 ppg difference.

Maybe people should be talking about the patriots defense.

 

[holyredeemer]

Randomly picked mid-season? C’mooonnn! Regardless, point taken. Good research.

 

[Ring 6]

Randomly picked mid-season? C’mooonnn! Regardless, point taken. Good research.

It was literally the first point I chose. Half a season seems like a reasonable sample. Nothing happened just before or just after that made it a cherry pick.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Not enough All-Pro / Pro Bowlers on the Patriots for them to be as good a D as the Jaguars.

 

[Ring 6]

Not enough All-Pro / Pro Bowlers on the Patriots for them to be as good a D as the Jaguars.

Huh?
So it’s not about what you do on the field it’s about what people write about you?

For half a season plus they have been better.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Huh?
So it’s not about what you do on the field it’s about what people write about you?

For half a season plus they have been better.

I think he was being sarcastic.

 

[PScottman]

Not enough All-Pro / Pro Bowlers on the Patriots for them to be as good a D as the Jaguars.

There must be a sarcasm tag missing in the original post, so apologies if I'm just missing it, but if not, my 1988 high school student council just wants to remind everyone that if you vote for them they'll work tirelessly to ensure pizza is served in the cafeteria three days a week instead of just two.

About the same effectiveness correlation I'd wager.

 

[luuked]

Jacksonville has more takeaways 21/9 but that doesn’t mean more than a 5 ppg difference.

And guess what happens to that Jacksonville team when they cant produce those turnovers ? They lose their games.

There were two games this season that they still won with a negative turnover differential. @Colts where none of that mattered in a shutout win and a win at home against the Bengals where they fumbled on the first drive.

The key for Jacksonville to keep this game competitive is to produce turnovers on Sunday. They wont be able to hang without them.

 

[DarrylS]

People should be talking about the Pats Defense and the remarkable job that Patricia and his staff have done this year..

Fortunately the D backfield has pretty much stayed intact throughout the year, an interlude for Rowe, but overall that have kept up their end of the bargain.. many of us thought that after Hightower went down we were doooooomed.. then Van Noy went down for a bit.... somehow the defensive coaches and players made all of this work. Kudos to all of them.

 

[Uptown]

IMO- Underlying narrative.

The Pats’ D will hear about that dominant JAC D all week (possibly also being the worst D left in the playoffs) & it will further motivate them. Just as it did in 2016. This “No- Name” D will come out strong in the AFCCG.

New England Patriots links 1/15/18 - Defensive no-names say ‘hello’ to rest of NFL

 

[mosi]

Yeah, I think you are right. People always say look at the last 5 games to tell you how a team is playing. The Pats D will be disrespected all weak and will shut down the Jags O. I think more than anything, the Pitt D is the group that should be embarrassed. The Steelers basically scored at will. The Pats D will be ready for this game.

 

[Uptown]

Yeah, I think you are right. People always say look at the last 5 games to tell you how a team is playing. The Pats D will be disrespected all weak and will shut down the Jags O. I think more than anything, the Pitt D is the group that should be embarrassed. The Steelers basically scored at will. The Pats D will be ready for this game.

*You mean Jags basically scored at will?

 

[TommyD4207]

*You mean Jags basically scored at will?

I've been saying their defense (Pittsburgh's) is soft as puppy **** for two years now. Never has that fact been on better display than their last two playoff games.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Ever since the TB game it's been a good defense. It really isnt a debate anymore.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Do the Pats really have 34 sacks in the last 9 games? Wow. The subpackage pass rush unit comprised of the kids has really turned it on since Wise returned from the rookie wall:

Wise age 23
Butler age 23
Flowers age 24
M. Flowers 25

This unit is could be awesome for years to come with Hightower returning as the 4th LB rusher in M. Flowers’ role as well as Rivers maybe providing something.

The Giants have invested 100+ million in their pass rush while we are trotting out two 4th round picks, a 7th round trade an UDFA. It’s no argument what unit is better. Football man.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

I don't think they struggle against defenses as much as people think. Nearly every defense in the playoffs is good, but so is nearly every offense. Then they lose and people say that was a great defense, but often the defenses they lost to are no better than the defenses they beat. Defensive rank of all Brady era playoff opponents:
2001
19, 3, 7
2003
13, 20, 10
2004
19, 1, 2
2005
6, 3L
2006
2, 7, 23L
2007
10, 5, 17L
2009
3L
2010
6L
2011
24, 3, 25L
2012
9, 12L
2013
9, 22L
2014
6, 19, 1
2015
3, 4L
2016
11, 10, 27
2017
17
Jags next game are 2

Average defensive rank of losses- 12.4
Average defensive rank in wins - 10.2
Of all games 10.8
Their losses have come against weaker defenses than their wins.

They've faced the #1 defense twice- both wins
They've faced the #2 defense twice- both wins
They've faced a top 5 defense 11 times and went 9-2 (82%)
So against top 5 defenses they do better than their playoff average of 26-9 (74%).

 

[everlong]

I think just taking the ranking is a bit misleading. Both Giants and the Atlanta SB those defenses were a lot better by the end of the year. The Colts defense sucked all year in 06 then they got Sanders back and were very good. I'm sure there's some examples in the other direction where the Pats benefitted from a declining defense or one that lost a major cog.

I do appreciate the effort and it's telling but not the entire story.

 

[Ring 6]

I think just taking the ranking is a bit misleading. Both Giants and the Atlanta SB those defenses were a lot better by the end of the year. The Colts defense sucked all year in 06 then they got Sanders back and were very good. I'm sure there's some examples in the other direction where the Pats benefitted from a declining defense or one that lost a major cog.

I do appreciate the effort and it's telling but not the entire story.

Nothing is the whole story but a half a season of defense is a big part of it.
The point being that while people are comparing the jags to the 85 bears the patriots have played better defense for 3 months.

 

[everlong]

Nothing is the whole story but a half a season of defense is a big part of it.
The point being that while people are comparing the jags to the 85 bears the patriots have played better defense for 3 months.

I was replying to Bob's last post about historical playoff performance by the Pats. I wasn't disagreeing with your overall premise. Of the playoff teams the Jags were last in SOV and tied for last in SOS. There's a lot of misleading stats about them. I still think they're dangerous if they get pressure up the middle and turnovers.

 

[SacPete1]

Good post and a great example of the eye test and the actual stats not always aligning.
I hope these telling stats remain on our board only while the talk shows talk about the Jags defense like its the 85 Bears or 2000 Ravens which it isn't.

They do have a more attacking style from what I've seen (one gap shoots and corners in man) but this also exposes them to Oline stunts. I also noticed their DE's were really aggressive in their pass rush and blew by Ben without a care for lanes. Some might argue that you can do this more freely when you are not facing a running QB but I think it affords a QB better passing lanes.