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In Case You Missed Them: 3 Great Articles Debunking Deflategate


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The Statistical Improbability of Deflate Gate
  • The best-case statistical scenario for the Patriots is that Walt Anderson used the Logo Gauge pre-game, that the balls were measured at 2 minutes, each took about 22 seconds to measure and that the officials took 5 minutes to re-inflate the balls (labeled “Early Start, Fast Measure, Long Inflate” above). That produces a mean where the Patriots balls are higher than the Colts, meaning it’s impossible for the Patriots balls to come from a population that is inherently lower than the Colts balls.
  • Three of the six scenarios in which the Logo Gauge was used pre-game completely exonerate the Patriots
  • The worst-case scenario for the Patriots is that Walt Anderson used the Non-Logo Gauge in the pre-game, and that the balls were measured at 4 minutes, each took 27 seconds to measure and that the officials took 2 minutes to re-inflate the balls (labeled “Late Start, Slow Measure, Quick Inflate” above). That produces a p-value of 0.247, which means that if our assumptions are true, there is a 75.3% chance the Patriots balls come from a different population.
Although it’s far below “statistical significance,” 75.3% might sound like a lot. But what is that number actually saying? For that, we have to look at the observed difference in the averages to put this into perspective: there’s a 75% chance that the 0.3 PSI difference is not simply from variance and is part of a different population (i.e. tampered balls).

Depending on the distribution, 0.3 PSI could easily be 99.99% likely to come from a different sample…which would suggest, what? There’s a 99.99% chance that the Patriots systematically released an average of 0.3 PSI per football? And that’s the worst-case scenario? That strains common sense.

1. The Cognitive and Statistical Biases of Deflate Gate

b. “Help the Deflator”
The Globe article takes exception to the Patriots explanation that Jim McNally referenced himself as the ‘deflator’ because he is a big fellow and wanted to lose weight. The author, Ben Volin, responds “It’s hard to find a rational-thinking person in the country who buys this answer.”

That’s just ignorant. And understandably — the science of thinking isn’t exactly taught in high schools.
Volin is under the impression that his mind isn’t heavily anchored to the context of deflating footballs, when for months, he’s only associated the term deflator with this issue. He, like most of us now, probably can’t even think of the word “deflate” without thinking of PSI and footballs. From a cognitive standpoint, that’s predictable.

2. But not necessarily accurate.

Prima facie the texts reflect incriminating language to those who have been loaded up with the idea that there was a tampering ploy in place. Once the mind has decided what the “deflator” refers to, it has a hard time accepting a counter explanation without a larger sum of evidence. But again, that’s a recipe for false conclusions and simply a predictable function of the brain’s desire to create certainty instead of ambiguity.

Conversely, if I told you that two jocular workmates came up with strange terms to needle each other with, and those terms were related to the actual work they did every day, would you think that’s strange? It’s possible, without any additional evidence (see section 3 and 4 below), that he calls himself the “deflator” because he regularly tampers with footballs on Sunday. There are also a myriad of other possibilities for that one text message, especially given McNally’s texting habits and propensity for wild language and nonsensical statements (e.g. “what’s up dorito dink?”)

People use jargon specific to their vocation all the time, and do so in extending humor or personalizing phrases. On the outside (with no context) these references seem meaningless or are misinterpreted. That’s the definition of an “inside joke.” It takes one instant of connecting a football losing weight to a person losing weight and voila, an inside joke. (Or, the only recorded instance of McNally referring to his role in a tampering scheme, a scheme that was otherwise never apparently discussed over text.)

3. Follow-Up: The Evidence for Non-Tampering in 2 Pictures

These arent the best 3 articles debunking Deflategate, but they are 3 great articles by the same person.

I posted these out of order, because the 5/22 article is one I hadn't seen before and want to bring to people's attention.

The 5/17 article has some of the best expressed refuting of the Deflator texts and other logical fallacies I've read.
 
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This will only end when Goodell has his face smashed in. The level of fury this ignorant megalomaniac is about to incur will dwarf anything that the FIFA's of the world pulled off the last 20 years. He is a scumbag, and a wart, a stain on the game. If he won't leave he must be FORCED OUT. At this point by any and all means necessary. This rotten scumbag has ruined being a fan for millions of New Englanders.
 
This will only end when Goodell has his face smashed in. The level of fury this ignorant megalomaniac is about to incur will dwarf anything that the FIFA's of the world pulled off the last 20 years. He is a scumbag, and a wart, a stain on the game. If he won't leave he must be FORCED OUT. At this point by any and all means necessary. This rotten scumbag has ruined being a fan for millions of New Englanders.
I like it Joker, but I sense you are holding back.
 
There isn't a need to cast doubt, every sentient being knows by now it's a scam. Agree on the face smashed in. Hope he's spending a lot of quality time up in Prouts Neck this summer
 
This will only end when Goodell has his face smashed in. The level of fury this ignorant megalomaniac is about to incur will dwarf anything that the FIFA's of the world pulled off the last 20 years. He is a scumbag, and a wart, a stain on the game. If he won't leave he must be FORCED OUT. At this point by any and all means necessary. This rotten scumbag has ruined being a fan for millions of New Englanders.
Dude, whoever the league replaces Goodell with will be as bad or worse. It's the league. What will it take for Kraft to open his eyes. Here is the same lament I hear, all over everywhere: "After 1993 when flying Elvis took the team over my Patriot fandom ceased. The Patriots had the best uniform in all the NFL and I guess Kraft ruined them. Long live Pat the Patriot!!" The flying elvis likers are of a two year old's mentality that demands victory with no account or interest in anything else at all, which thus makes them the least deserving of a winner. By staying with the flying elvis for 23 years, Kraft has created a whole new strain of Montreal Canadiens-style "Pats" fans south of the border, right here in Boston. Associating the Kraft family legacy, tradition or winning with the flying elvis is akin to saying the swastika represents patriotism, perseverance and economic prosperity; or believing the confederate flag is symbolic of individual freedom, pride and justice. Let's look at Elvis Presley's favorite team, the Cleveland Browns: it took over a hundred lawsuits filed by fans, the city and others, congressional hearings, joint protests by Browns AND Steelers fans and all the sponsors pulling out to force the league to allow them to retain their logo and colors. Kraft is the one who prefers not to involve the courts, so how about just restoring the 2012 throwbacks as our permanent uniform and putting an end to the ugliness. Then, with everyone on board, he can make some progress toward ending the league's present free hand in kicking the franchise around all they want with impunity. We should have both first-round draft picks from '08 and '16 and the '17 fourth-rounder restored, for starters. A formal public acknowledgement of bias, incompetence and an apology would be appropriate. Yes, for real, not kidding. Let's not have to wait forty years for it.
 
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There isn't a need to cast doubt, every sentient being knows by now it's a scam. Agree on the face smashed in. Hope he's spending a lot of quality time up in Prouts Neck this summer
BTW, speaking of '07 too, I read the videotaping rule several times, but I promise you not as many times as BB read it, before Mangini complained. So, after the league reissued the same rule to every team, why would anyone expect Belichick to change anything? Were they thinking he would say, "Wow, gosh, I must have totally misinterpreted this thing and we, along with everyone else, have been doing this wrong for the last eight years...I guess the league is smart and I'm just an idiot..." Like after having all their money, homes, possessions and livelihoods stolen and being herded up and imprisoned in the dust bowl for years, over 100,000 Japanese-American citizens were presented with a piece of paper saying, "You might be able to get on with your life if you renounce allegiance to the emperor of Japan." How can you renounce something which you never pledged in the first place? Here's justice now: have Bill stand up in front of all the coaches and owners, and say, "I totally renounce that ridiculous and inappropriate apology which I was unjustly forced to make; I obviously did not break any rules and likewise never did anything to damage the integrity of the NFL, the league has done that to itself. Oh, and thanks to all of you who stood up for me - all zero of you, I really appreciate it."
 
Hope he's spending a lot of quality time up in Prouts Neck this summer

I'm certainly not advocating the use of vandalism (far from it), but one would think that someone would've taken matters into their own hands by now. I'm a bit surprised that he's able to successfully walk in the shadows up there.
 
It started about air in a football and ended about a phone IMO.
 
It started about air in a football and ended about a phone IMO.
It is simply unbelievable that someone like Myra Kraft, who dedicated her life to helping and supporting people in need, would ever under any circumstances knowingly condone the validation of anything or anyone that would seriously damage protection, support and justice for real female victims of violence. However, exactly that occurred when Tagliabue and People magazine ascribed credibility to Lisa Olson, who falsely accused several innocent players of "rape." Witnesses there including media acknowledged in 1992 that there was nothing credible in her story. Yet, James Orthwein (of St. Louis, assigned by the league) decided to destroy the Patriots' logo and uniforms a year later.
This is very simple: The 49ers won four titles looking like the champions they were; then they won a fifth looking like idiots. We're simply doing the reverse, right here in Foxborough.
Flying elvis: You're...Justin Bieber. There's just no indication that you've had any positive effect on the world around you. Goodbye.
Patrick H. Patriot: Vacation's over. We've got a fifth Super Bowl to win, and this time, we're doing it looking like champions, not chumps.
Picture this: Hung out there at Gillette, a beautiful, huge red banner with Pat Patriot, reading "Super Bowl LI Champions."
 
It is simply unbelievable that someone like Myra Kraft, who dedicated her life to helping and supporting people in need, would ever under any circumstances knowingly condone the validation of anything or anyone that would seriously damage protection, support and justice for real female victims of violence. However, exactly that occurred when Tagliabue and People magazine ascribed credibility to Lisa Olson, who falsely accused several innocent players of "rape." Witnesses there including media acknowledged in 1992 that there was nothing credible in her story. Yet, James Orthwein (of St. Louis, assigned by the league) decided to destroy the Patriots' logo and uniforms a year later.
This is very simple: The 49ers won four titles looking like the champions they were; then they won a fifth looking like idiots. We're simply doing the reverse, right here in Foxborough.
Flying elvis: You're...Justin Bieber. There's just no indication that you've had any positive effect on the world around you. Goodbye.
Patrick H. Patriot: Vacation's over. We've got a fifth Super Bowl to win, and this time, we're doing it looking like champions, not chumps.
Picture this: Hung out there at Gillette, a beautiful, huge red banner with Pat Patriot, reading "Super Bowl LI Champions."
 
Lots of words that said nothing
 
Another recent article debunking the Exponent Report:

Deflategate: Controversy is due to Scientist Error


I’ve submitted an article entitled “New Light on Deflategate: Critical Technical Errors” pdf to Journal of Sports Analytics. It identifies and analyzes a previously unnoticed scientific error in the technical analysis included in the Wells Report on Deflategate. The article shows precisely how the “unexplained” deflation occurred prior to Anderson’s measurement and disproves the possibility of post-measurement tampering. At present, there is insufficient information to determine whether the scientific error arose because the law firm responsible for the investigation (Paul, Weiss) omitted essential information in their instructions to their technical consultants (Exponent) or whether the technical consultants failed to incorporate all relevant information in their analysis. In either event, the error was missed by the NFL consultant Daniel Marlow of the Princeton University Department of Physics

http://www.climateaudit.info/pdf/deflategate/mcintyre_new light_on_deflategate_submitted.pdf
 
Everything in your mind is connected to the Flying Elvis replacing Pat the Patriot........

Are you Pat the Patriots' mom?
That'd be Phil Bissel. The ugly flying elvis' ancestor was booed out of the stadium for good reason in 1979. Everyone I have ever discussed this topic with agrees, including Patriots fans, New Englanders, Football fans (even opponents' fans to this day are strikingly vocal in support of the previous logo & uniforms), casual sports fans, and those possessing any fashion sense or common sense (including every woman who has ever addressed the subject), to name a few.
 
Revisiting the facts is painful ..........
Watching the NBA draft last night I'm looking at Adam silver and wondering why the NFL can't have a commish like that - then reality hits and the facts are that the petulant owners would never allow it.
 
Revisiting the facts is painful ..........
Watching the NBA draft last night I'm looking at Adam silver and wondering why the NFL can't have a commish like that - then reality hits and the facts are that the petulant owners would never allow it.
Well, apparently it took getting Stern out of there for them to mercifully get rid of the insane 2-3-2 finals format, which was completely unfair to both teams. When THAT decision was announced in 1984, I went from an annual viewer to not watching, except a little when the Celtics were there ('85, '87, '08). All of a sudden, you reach the climax of your sport's year, and you might as well have them don spikes and masks and play with a baseball. The fledgling, financially struggling NBA of the fifties was long gone, yet you had to tell the team that clinched home advantage in the finals: "Congratulations, if you don't sweep the first two games, you may not have any more home games the rest of your year. Good Luck!" And, to their opponent, "Good Job! Now for you merely to win your home games you have to sweep the other team three in a row. Break a leg!"
 
at this point who cares. talk to me when the court agrees to hear the appeal again. i could care less about articles and public opinion.
 
It is simply unbelievable that someone like Myra Kraft, who dedicated her life to helping and supporting people in need, would ever under any circumstances knowingly condone the validation of anything or anyone that would seriously damage protection, support and justice for real female victims of violence. However, exactly that occurred when Tagliabue and People magazine ascribed credibility to Lisa Olson, who falsely accused several innocent players of "rape." Witnesses there including media acknowledged in 1992 that there was nothing credible in her story. Yet, James Orthwein (of St. Louis, assigned by the league) decided to destroy the Patriots' logo and uniforms a year later.
This is very simple: The 49ers won four titles looking like the champions they were; then they won a fifth looking like idiots. We're simply doing the reverse, right here in Foxborough.
Flying elvis: You're...Justin Bieber. There's just no indication that you've had any positive effect on the world around you. Goodbye.
Patrick H. Patriot: Vacation's over. We've got a fifth Super Bowl to win, and this time, we're doing it looking like champions, not chumps.
Picture this: Hung out there at Gillette, a beautiful, huge red banner with Pat Patriot, reading "Super Bowl LI Champions."

I am sorry I missed your point re: my post. Please explain if you can, thanks.
 
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