BobDigital
Pro Bowl Player
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2013
- Messages
- 16,350
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Something I rarely talk about on this forum but bring up time to time is the "due" factor. The natural balancing out of chances. The control within the chaos. The natural equilibrium we seem to observe over the long term.
I believe each moment in time is its own and is not influenced by others but I also believe that things have a way of generally falling into line when you step back and look at an entire set of data. If we look at larger trends and natural balancing out we expect to take place when the run is over the Patriots are more likely than we think to win on Sunday and it has little to do with Xs and Os. However now I must prove my point on why "due" favors the Pats. Let me demonstrate.
#1 3-4 point wins/loss. In the new salary cap era (1993 on) super bowls have consistently been close on the whole. More often than not we have seen 1 score games particularly the last 15 years. Last year was a bigger win so you would think we would see a tight game this time? Not really. Only 1 time in the past 15 years have we seen back to back 2 score super bowl wins. Though close games are the norm it is also the norm to expect short streaks of bigger wins. The more compelling evidence though is the Pats track record. 6 SBs and 6 3-4 point games. That is a statistical anomaly. Highly odd and i believe highly unlikely to continue. Each game has made it less and less likely. This time something gives. The Pats will win or loss by 2 scores. So which is more likely? Well if i have to pick 1 team to win by 2 scores I have no choice (experience, balance, coaching) to pick the Patriots. This to me makes a more likely Patriots win.
#2 Ryan defrost. Ryan is having far and away the best year of his career. He has made it look very easy the past 6 games. Mind boggling stats with no interceptions. Rodgers did the same and it finally caught up. Brady was read hot but had a tough time in Houston. Ryan is not Brady or Rodgers. Logic and history suggest he can not keep it up and making the sudden jump from the hurt or bad Ds he faced to the Pats give him a reason to throw a pick and have a turnover or 2. He should have had 2 against GB but they were dropped. Good for us. When a player is not picked for a while they start to get too comfortable sometimes. Ryan seemed too comfortable to me. Too willing to take risk. If Ryan has another 3-4 TD game with 300 yards and no turnovers the Falcons likely win. I don't see that. Ryan is simply due to make mistakes or have his mistakes be cashed in on. Also noting Ryan has never been overly safe with the ball in his career. Up to this point the season has been an anomaly for him.
#3 Falcons defense. The Falcons D has been on a roll. They suddenly go from a bad D to a fairly good D by the stats. The Pats this year made a jump too of sorts but it had a clear catalyst and the jump was from pretty good to overall good. The Falcons jump to me from bad to pretty good seems too big and unaccountable. Why are they suddenly 10 top after the bye? Well part of it is due to playing bad teams and part to luck. They got people at the right time. They got AZ when Carson was not doing well and Fitz looked old, Rams/SF Carolina after it was over for them and they seemed flat. They caught Brees on a bad streak who later came back a bit but too late. Then they caught Wilson on a so-so day and his offensive line was exposed and caught Rodgers cooling off (like Ryan will i think) and the injuries and bad play all around from the entire offense (so many drops and a MASH unit OL) was too much to over come. Basically this unit is not as good as the post bye stats say. The Jump from where they were to where they are now inside of a year is simply not realistic. Yes they improved by the eye test but not from 25th to top 10. This unit is due to get exposed and that happens I think.
There are other due facts but these are the main ones and this is long enough as is. Thoughts?
I believe each moment in time is its own and is not influenced by others but I also believe that things have a way of generally falling into line when you step back and look at an entire set of data. If we look at larger trends and natural balancing out we expect to take place when the run is over the Patriots are more likely than we think to win on Sunday and it has little to do with Xs and Os. However now I must prove my point on why "due" favors the Pats. Let me demonstrate.
#1 3-4 point wins/loss. In the new salary cap era (1993 on) super bowls have consistently been close on the whole. More often than not we have seen 1 score games particularly the last 15 years. Last year was a bigger win so you would think we would see a tight game this time? Not really. Only 1 time in the past 15 years have we seen back to back 2 score super bowl wins. Though close games are the norm it is also the norm to expect short streaks of bigger wins. The more compelling evidence though is the Pats track record. 6 SBs and 6 3-4 point games. That is a statistical anomaly. Highly odd and i believe highly unlikely to continue. Each game has made it less and less likely. This time something gives. The Pats will win or loss by 2 scores. So which is more likely? Well if i have to pick 1 team to win by 2 scores I have no choice (experience, balance, coaching) to pick the Patriots. This to me makes a more likely Patriots win.
#2 Ryan defrost. Ryan is having far and away the best year of his career. He has made it look very easy the past 6 games. Mind boggling stats with no interceptions. Rodgers did the same and it finally caught up. Brady was read hot but had a tough time in Houston. Ryan is not Brady or Rodgers. Logic and history suggest he can not keep it up and making the sudden jump from the hurt or bad Ds he faced to the Pats give him a reason to throw a pick and have a turnover or 2. He should have had 2 against GB but they were dropped. Good for us. When a player is not picked for a while they start to get too comfortable sometimes. Ryan seemed too comfortable to me. Too willing to take risk. If Ryan has another 3-4 TD game with 300 yards and no turnovers the Falcons likely win. I don't see that. Ryan is simply due to make mistakes or have his mistakes be cashed in on. Also noting Ryan has never been overly safe with the ball in his career. Up to this point the season has been an anomaly for him.
#3 Falcons defense. The Falcons D has been on a roll. They suddenly go from a bad D to a fairly good D by the stats. The Pats this year made a jump too of sorts but it had a clear catalyst and the jump was from pretty good to overall good. The Falcons jump to me from bad to pretty good seems too big and unaccountable. Why are they suddenly 10 top after the bye? Well part of it is due to playing bad teams and part to luck. They got people at the right time. They got AZ when Carson was not doing well and Fitz looked old, Rams/SF Carolina after it was over for them and they seemed flat. They caught Brees on a bad streak who later came back a bit but too late. Then they caught Wilson on a so-so day and his offensive line was exposed and caught Rodgers cooling off (like Ryan will i think) and the injuries and bad play all around from the entire offense (so many drops and a MASH unit OL) was too much to over come. Basically this unit is not as good as the post bye stats say. The Jump from where they were to where they are now inside of a year is simply not realistic. Yes they improved by the eye test but not from 25th to top 10. This unit is due to get exposed and that happens I think.
There are other due facts but these are the main ones and this is long enough as is. Thoughts?
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