If the playoffs were to start today... (merged)

[Kulko]

Its not updated yet for yesterdays game, but I found it a pretty accurate picture in the past:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

So if we win the AFCE, we are probably #1, or #2 if we lose next week and have to tie break with Indy.

If we cant outrace the Rats it should be pretty sure to be #5 as the second wild card is scheduled for Bal/Pit for now and we have the Tiebreaker against both.


So worst case (apart from missing of course) would be #5 seed and a rematch in San Diego. Unfortuantely KC seems to be completely unable, to hold up there part of the bargain and it looks like the Bolts can survive another one of there who cares about september funks.

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

God, we're a lower seed than the Raiders right now...

 

[blackglass3]

One game at a time. All of this will shake out the proper way for us.

 

[ivanvamp]

One game at a time. All of this will shake out the proper way for us.

I'd like to think that, but the two times since 2001 that the Pats have missed the playoffs, they've actually finished tied for first place in the AFC East, missing the playoffs only by the crazy tiebreaker process. So when it gets tight, we have experience of it *not* shaking out the proper way for us.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

The Colts may win every single game left in this season. It's pathetic how easy they have it while we get every tough opponent in this league.

All the more reason for the Pats to take care of business in Foxboro next week.

And, count me among those who believe that having succeeded against a tough schedule puts us in a stronger position in January. If you have to play and beat strong teams all season, you have a better chance of beating the best in the Playoffs.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If we beat the Jets at home we should be okay in getting the division. If they sweep us they deserve the division.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Because you are awarding an irrelevant tie breaker. The advantage doesnt exist. The Jets can not win the head to head tiebreaker 1-0. It just cant happen.

But they could win the head to head tiebreaker even if they don't win in Foxoboro.

Lets assume for a moment that the game ends after 75 min of play in a tie. Who would get the tiebreakers? Ans: Jets.

Actually lets assume for a moment that every single regular season game not yet played this season ends after 75 mins in a tie. That is the very essense of "if the playoffs were played today"

 

[mgteich]

In 2001, we won the division on a tie-breaker, but Miami still mad the playoffs as a wildcard.

It is still amazing to me that the patriots have won or tied for the division for the last nine years.

I'd like to think that, but the two times since 2001 that the Pats have missed the playoffs, they've actually finished tied for first place in the AFC East, missing the playoffs only by the crazy tiebreaker process. So when it gets tight, we have experience of it *not* shaking out the proper way for us.

 

[Uncle Rico]

But they could win the head to head tiebreaker even if they don't win in Foxoboro.

Lets assume for a moment that the game ends after 75 min of play in a tie. Who would get the tiebreakers? Ans: Jets.

Actually lets assume for a moment that every single regular season game not yet played this season ends after 75 mins in a tie. That is the very essense of "if the playoffs were played today"

You actually don't have to assume anything. Just look at the standings on nfl.com, which I consider pretty official:

NFL Standings: Conference

 

[ivanvamp]

You actually don't have to assume anything. Just look at the standings on nfl.com, which I consider pretty official:

NFL Standings: Conference

I still think SD wins the AFC West. The difference between the #1 seed and the #5 seed (the difference between winning the AFCE (probably) and finishing 2nd in the AFCE) is *HUGE*.

#1 seed: first round bye, home field (where the Pats are dominant) advantage throughout the playoffs, just need 2 wins to get to the Super Bowl

#5 seed: play at SD (very tough), then, if they win, on the road at Indianapolis (another very tough game), and then, if they win, at the Jets (where they've lost the last couple of years).

So it kind of goes without saying: the #1 seed is critical this year.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

You actually don't have to assume anything. Just look at the standings on nfl.com, which I consider pretty official:

NFL Standings: Conference

I am aware of that. I was responding to the critism of awarding the Jets the tiebreaker when we have two more games. Fact is Jets have the tiebreaker.

1) if we tie them in the second game they have the tiebreaker.

2) if we beat them and lose to Colts, Bills or Dolphins they will have the tiebreaker.

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

1. Jets (9-2)
2. Ravens (8-3)
3. Chiefs (7-4)
4. Jaguars (6-5)

5. Patriots (9-2)
6. Steelers (8-3)
----------
2 GB (6-5)
Chargers
Colts
Dolphins

3 GB (5-6)
Texans
Titans
Raiders