If Jets/Pats match-up, is it the Sat. night game?

[Patsfanin Philly]

Thanks Brono, you have the stats to back it up!

If the Jets get the #5 seed and the Pats get the #4 ( strength of victory overcome by Cinn) they could meet in the first round.......

 

[Peter Pat]

Jets are either a 5 seed or they can not get in. It is impossibility for them to play the Pats.

if the jets lose they are out. there is no scenerio for them to make the playoffs.

If the Jets win they are the 5 seed and the Bengals are the 4 seed automatically.

That is all you have to know.

BTW unless Dallas somehow gets the 2 seed, which they have a small possibility in getting. They will be the 8:00 Saturday night game. The Pats will be the 1:00 Sunday game.

Also Cincy will be the 4:00 Sat afternoon game.

 

[upstater1]

If the Jets get the #5 seed and the Pats get the #4 ( strength of victory overcome by Cinn) they could meet in the first round.......

As I said, I was not looking at perfect storm scenarios dealing with strength of victory.

There's a spread of 5 games right now, correct?

Since each team only plays 13 opponents a year, and since only 10 games against those 13 opponents were wins, a 5 game spread would effectively mean that every single team that the Patriots beat would need to lose Sunday, and every single team that the Bengals beat would need to win.

It's just not going to happen.

But once again, you are correct. I stated here that you are the only person on the board crazier than I am.

 

[jgpatriot]

NFL - Playoff Scenario Generator- Yahoo! Sports
Change 1. Jets to Tie 2. Change Pats to Win or Tie

The ultimate unlikely scenario that allows Jets versus Patriots (but it is mathematically possible)

1. Jets (#6) ties Cincinnati (#4)
2. Pats (#3) ties or wins over Houston
3. Denver (#5) wins over KC
4. Baltimore ties or loses to Oakland
5. Miami ties or wins over Pitt
6. JAX vs cleveland is a non factor

Jets vs Pats and Denver vs Cin

 

[40yrpatsfan]

There are 5 teams with 8-7 records. Assuming we beat HOU, that leaves 4 - Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Broncos - who I think will all win and advance to 9-7.

The first tiebreaker is to eliminate the Steelers because the Ravens are from the same division and have a better division record. That leaves 3 teams: Jets, Ravens, Broncos.

These 3 teams did not all play one another, so there are no head to head tiebreakers. The Ravens did beat Denver, but that doesn't come into play. Also, all 3 would have the same conf record of 7-5. Even if HOU beats us, they'd be out because they'd have a worse conference record at 6-6. So it's still 3 teams.

The next tiebreaker is common opponents. There are 4 opponents that each of the 3 teams team faced, for a total of 5 games each. The common opponents were Cinci, Oakland, NE, and Indy - the Ravens faced Cinci twice, Denver faced Oakland twice, and the Jets faced NE twice. If you count all these games, then the Jets and Broncos are at 3-2, and the Ravens are at 1-4.

So it looks to me like the Ravens are the odd man out. I disagree with Upstater and others who are saying that the Ravens are in if they win. If I'm off for some reason, where am I off?

I'll look at the Cinci-Pats seeding later.

 

[upstater1]

There are 5 teams with 8-7 records. Assuming we beat HOU, that leaves 4 - Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Broncos - who I think will all win and advance to 9-7.

The first tiebreaker is to eliminate the Steelers because the Ravens are from the same division and have a better division record. That leaves 3 teams: Jets, Ravens, Broncos.

These 3 teams did not all play one another, so there are no head to head tiebreakers. The Ravens did beat Denver, but that doesn't come into play. Also, all 3 would have the same conf record of 7-5. Even if HOU beats us, they'd be out because they'd have a worse conference record at 6-6. So it's still 3 teams.

The next tiebreaker is common opponents. There are 4 opponents that each of the 3 teams team faced, for a total of 5 games each. The common opponents were Cinci, Oakland, NE, and Indy - the Ravens faced Cinci twice, Denver faced Oakland twice, and the Jets faced NE twice. If you count all these games, then the Jets and Broncos are at 3-2, and the Ravens are at 1-4.

So it looks to me like the Ravens are the odd man out. I disagree with Upstater and others who are saying that the Ravens are in if they win. If I'm off for some reason, where am I off?

I'll look at the Cinci-Pats seeding later.

I did a thread already that looks at each scenario, and its called, "the Patriots wild card opponent will be:" All the scnarios are there.

In this case, the Jets get in ahead of the Ravens and Broncos because the Jets will have a 4-1 common opponents record.

Then you start the two-team tiebreaker between Den and Balt, and Balt has the advantage head-to-head.

 

[jgpatriot]

There are 5 teams with 8-7 records. Assuming we beat HOU, that leaves 4 - Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Broncos - who I think will all win and advance to 9-7.

The first tiebreaker is to eliminate the Steelers because the Ravens are from the same division and have a better division record. That leaves 3 teams: Jets, Ravens, Broncos.

These 3 teams did not all play one another, so there are no head to head tiebreakers. The Ravens did beat Denver, but that doesn't come into play. Also, all 3 would have the same conf record of 7-5. Even if HOU beats us, they'd be out because they'd have a worse conference record at 6-6. So it's still 3 teams.

The next tiebreaker is common opponents. There are 4 opponents that each of the 3 teams team faced, for a total of 5 games each. The common opponents were Cinci, Oakland, NE, and Indy - the Ravens faced Cinci twice, Denver faced Oakland twice, and the Jets faced NE twice. If you count all these games, then the Jets and Broncos are at 3-2, and the Ravens are at 1-4.

So it looks to me like the Ravens are the odd man out. I disagree with Upstater and others who are saying that the Ravens are in if they win. If I'm off for some reason, where am I off?

I'll look at the Cinci-Pats seeding later.

# 5 Seed (Jets)
Tie breaker over Broncos and Ravens because of common games record.

#6 Seed (Ravens)
1. tie breaker over Steelers because of division record.
2. tie breaker over Broncos because of head to head record.

 

[supafly]

As I said, I was not looking at perfect storm scenarios dealing with strength of victory.

There's a spread of 5 games right now, correct?

Since each team only plays 13 opponents a year, and since only 10 games against those 13 opponents were wins, a 5 game spread would effectively mean that every single team that the Patriots beat would need to lose Sunday, and every single team that the Bengals beat would need to win.

It's just not going to happen.

But once again, you are correct. I stated here that you are the only person on the board crazier than I am.

Due to Adrian Peterson fumbling the game away in OT last night, CIN cut the SoV lead to 3. You are right, it was 4 going into the game last night, but CHI winning cuts it to 3, I believe.

This is based on the fact that it would've been 5 if MIN had won, so I'm assuming it had to have been 4 going into last night, which means I'm also assuming it is now cut to 3.

In other words, they were saying a MIN win last night would've rose our SoV vs. CIN to 5--so I am assuming the CHI upset has cut it to 3 now. Regardless, we still have much certainty of holding the SoV lead in a tie-breaker scenario with Cincy.

I think it'll depend what Belichick feels is the best matchup/scenario for us, then that'll probably steer Cincy one way or another for their night game vs NYJ. I think if NE loses, then CIN may very well play as well as possible in hopes of trying to get the better seed. If NE wins, then Cincy will probably not play their starters past the half, because there's not much of a chance in making up the gap in SoV.

 

[supafly]

There are 5 teams with 8-7 records. Assuming we beat HOU, that leaves 4 - Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Broncos - who I think will all win and advance to 9-7.

The first tiebreaker is to eliminate the Steelers because the Ravens are from the same division and have a better division record. That leaves 3 teams: Jets, Ravens, Broncos.

These 3 teams did not all play one another, so there are no head to head tiebreakers. The Ravens did beat Denver, but that doesn't come into play. Also, all 3 would have the same conf record of 7-5. Even if HOU beats us, they'd be out because they'd have a worse conference record at 6-6. So it's still 3 teams.

The next tiebreaker is common opponents. There are 4 opponents that each of the 3 teams team faced, for a total of 5 games each. The common opponents were Cinci, Oakland, NE, and Indy - the Ravens faced Cinci twice, Denver faced Oakland twice, and the Jets faced NE twice. If you count all these games, then the Jets and Broncos are at 3-2, and the Ravens are at 1-4.

So it looks to me like the Ravens are the odd man out. I disagree with Upstater and others who are saying that the Ravens are in if they win. If I'm off for some reason, where am I off?

I'll look at the Cinci-Pats seeding later.

Upstater has had it correct since last week, even when all of the 'playoff generators' etc had it wrong.

BAL and the NYJ control their own destiny, with the NYJ getting the 5 seed with a win, and BAL getting the 6 seed with a win.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I did a thread already that looks at each scenario, and its called, "the Patriots wild card opponent will be:" All the scnarios are there.

In this case, the Jets get in ahead of the Ravens and Broncos because the Jets will have a 4-1 common opponents record.

Then you start the two-team tiebreaker between Den and Balt, and Balt has the advantage head-to-head.

You may be perfectly right, but the way I would interpret the rules is that the Jets and Broncos have the better records against common opponents, and the Ravens are last in that tiebreaker and are therefore out without ever going to the next tiebreaker. i.e., you only go to the next tiebreaker when the previous one doesn't break the tie. The common opponents tiebreaker breaks the tie - Ravens out.

 

[upstater1]

You may be perfectly right, but the way I would interpret the rules is that the Jets and Broncos have the better records against common opponents, and the Ravens are last in that tiebreaker and are therefore out without ever going to the next tiebreaker. i.e., you only go to the next tiebreaker when the previous one doesn't break the tie. The common opponents tiebreaker breaks the tie - Ravens out.

There is no tie. Jets win common opponents outright with a 4-1 record.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

There is no tie. Jets win common opponents outright with a 4-1 record.

True, the Jets win outright, but the Broncos also win over the Ravens. The purpose of the tiebreaker is to eliminate - in this case to get 3 teams down to two. I don't know why they would go to the next tiebreaker when the Ravens are last with common opponents. The "tie" is already broken at that point.

Wouldn't they only go to the next tiebreaker if the Broncos and Ravens had the same common opponents record; i.e., tied and in need of another level of tiebreaker?

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I'm possessed.

I refuse to go into variable strength of victory scenarios and tie-game scenarios as some have, so it's good to know I'm not the most insane person on this board.

Then don't say it's an impossibility and can;t happen when it can.......

In post #4, you wrote

""It can't happen.

Patriots-Jets is an impossibility in the first round.""

And I explained how it can happen based on strength of victory.
****Jets win and they are in as #5 seed...We all agree on that.
***IF the Pats lose, they will have the same record as Cinn (10-6) and same conference record and the tie breaker is strength of victory which the Pats lead by 4 as of today..If those teams that Cinn beat (especially twice) win on Sunday they could overcome the Pats and be the #3 seed, leaving the PAts as #4 and having to play the JETS.....

 

[upstater1]

Then don't say it's an impossibility and can;t happen when it can.......

In post #4, you wrote

""It can't happen.

Patriots-Jets is an impossibility in the first round.""

And I explained how it can happen based on strength of victory.
****Jets win and they are in as #5 seed...We all agree on that.
***IF the Pats lose, they will have the same record as Cinn (10-6) and same conference record and the tie breaker is strength of victory which the Pats lead by 4 as of today..If those teams that Cinn beat (especially twice) win on Sunday they could overcome the Pats and be the #3 seed, leaving the PAts as #4 and having to play the JETS.....

Jeez, talk about pedantic.

What's ridiculous about your post is that it should be obvious to all that I didn't get into ties, 10 game parlays, etc. To do this at all, you MUST cut off the variables at some point. That was obvious to everyone. The chances of all 10 games going the Bengals way are about as good as there being two ties in the AFC on Sunday. And if anyone were to work through all these variables and how they impact each team, the games would be over by the time you were done.

So, at the outset, I said i wouldn't consider it. If it were a one or two game difference in strength of victory, then maybe.

Jeez.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Jeez, talk about pedantic.
The chances of all 10 games going the Bengals way are about as good as there being two ties in the AFC on Sunday. And if anyone were to work through all these variables and how they impact each team, the games would be over by the time you were done.

So, at the outset, I said i wouldn't consider it. If it were a one or two game difference in strength of victory, then maybe.

Jeez.

They don't need ten games to go their way, only two. If the Browns win and the Steelers win, they pick up the 4 points to match the Patriots in strength of victory, since they beat each of those teams twice.
At that point, it becomes a crap shoot with the net results of the rest of the games deciding it. It's not pedantic because it's not a minute detail, it's the tiebreaker that will likely come into play.

 

[upstater1]

They don't need ten games to go their way, only two. If the Browns win and the Steelers win, they pick up the 4 points to match the Patriots in strength of victory, since they beat each of those teams twice.
At that point, it becomes a crap shoot with the net results of the rest of the games deciding it. It's not pedantic because it's not a minute detail, it's the tiebreaker that will likely come into play.

Oh well, I read the other thread where people said the Patriots had a much bigger lead. If it's only 2 then that changes a lot.

But, we're also understanding strength of victory differently. isn't it the won-loss record of the teams you beat?

If so, Cleve isn't going to add much at all.

 

[supafly]

Oh well, I read the other thread where people said the Patriots had a much bigger lead. If it's only 2 then that changes a lot.

But, we're also understanding strength of victory differently. isn't it the won-loss record of the teams you beat?

If so, Cleve isn't going to add much at all.

We're up by 4 games, would've been 5 had MIN won last night. I assumed it went back down to 3 with a CHI win, but it doesn't, it just stays at 4--instead of going up to 5. (In post #28, I was cautiously using the word 'assume' because I was not totally sure if it now went back down to 3 or not with CHI's upset--I hoped I explained myself good enough that I was not sure if that was the case or not. It appears that the lead simply remains at 4 games)

He's saying it would only take 2 games to make up the 4 game difference, because if CLE and PIT both would win, he's claiming that would make up the 4 game difference.

When talk yesterday arose of possibly getting a 5 game lead if MIN won, I guess it sounded better than it actually is--IF what he is saying is correct, which I have no reason to doubt him. I'm sure we'll hear more of the situation within the next coming day or 2.

Like many, I didn't realize either that it only took 2 teams to make up a 4 game difference, IF that's indeed the case.

Like you said, I guess it all depends how one adds it up, I am interested in hearing more thoughts as the week goes on. I am not sure at all if it can be tied again with wins by CLE and PIT or not, if that's the case, then the 4 game lead in SoV does seem a lot closer than a lot originally realized. What is the next tie-breaker after that? This is getting ridiculous.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Oh well, I read the other thread where people said the Patriots had a much bigger lead. If it's only 2 then that changes a lot.

But, we're also understanding strength of victory differently. isn't it the won-loss record of the teams you beat?

If so, Cleve isn't going to add much at all.

Strength of victory is calculated by adding up all the victories of the teams that you've beaten. In the Patriots case, they have beaten Buffalo twice ( count as 2), Miami, NYJ, Car, TB, Balt,Tenn,Atl, JAX. total wins of those teams is 65.
Compare that to Cinn who beat every team in their division twice, Chi, GB, Det and KC. total wins of those teams is 61 ( it went up by 1 after Chi won on Mon night). That 4 point differential is minimal in the scheme of things.
Actually a victory by Cleveland brings Cinn two points closer since they beat them twice.
As I said earlier, victories by Pitt and Clev put the teams in a dead heat so it's not so arcane and it's possible that they end up in a tie going to the next tiebreaker which is net point differential which the Pats win by an unsurmountable amount.
Hope this clears things up a bit.

 

[upstater1]

Strength of victory is calculated by adding up all the victories of the teams that you've beaten. In the Patriots case, they have beaten Buffalo twice ( count as 2), Miami, NYJ, Car, TB, Balt,Tenn,Atl, JAX. total wins of those teams is 65.
Compare that to Cinn who beat every team in their division twice, Chi, GB, Det and KC. total wins of those teams is 61 ( it went up by 1 after Chi won on Mon night). That 4 point differential is minimal in the scheme of things.
Actually a victory by Cleveland brings Cinn two points closer since they beat them twice.
As I said earlier, victories by Pitt and Clev put the teams in a dead heat so it's not so arcane and it's possible that they end up in a tie going to the next tiebreaker which is net point differential which the Pats win by an unsurmountable amount.
Hope this clears things up a bit.

It acutally doesn't clear things up for me.

Because, while wins by those two teams bring Cincy closer, all the other teams the Patriots beat over the past season might also win.

This is precisely why I didn't bother going into it, because it all depends on 10 different games and their results.

The other teams are playing too this weekend. You need to add their victories to the Patriots totals. Cincy's teams would need to go 6-4 minimum (if you include Pitt and Cle) and the Patriots' teams to go 4-6 max for there to be a tie. Or, if you don't include Pitt and Cle, Cincy's would need to go 7-3 minimum and the Patriots' teams 3-7 maximum.

 

[jgpatriot]

True, the Jets win outright, but the Broncos also win over the Ravens. The purpose of the tiebreaker is to eliminate - in this case to get 3 teams down to two. I don't know why they would go to the next tiebreaker when the Ravens are last with common opponents. The "tie" is already broken at that point.

Wouldn't they only go to the next tiebreaker if the Broncos and Ravens had the same common opponents record; i.e., tied and in need of another level of tiebreaker?

For #5 SeedJets, Broncos, Ravens, Steelers).
1. Ravens eliminate Steelers (division)
2. Jets wins seed #5 (common opponents) over Ravens and Broncos

Now that Jets won #5 seed, they are not a part of the equation for seed #6. Common opponents is not the tiebreaker for seed #6 because the Jets are not involved.

For # 6 Seed (Broncos, Ravens, Steelers)
1. Again, Ravens eliminate Steelers (division)
2. Ravens over Broncos (head to head)