If Jets/Pats match-up, is it the Sat. night game?

[d.finn.patsfan.]

I think i've worked out a scenario in which the pats play the Jets. I don't feel 100% on it though.

PIT NEED to beat MIA
CLE NEED to beat JAX
NYJ NEED to beat CIN
HOU NEED to beat NE
IND NEED to beat BUF
KC NEED to beat DEN
BAL NEED to beat OAK
GB NEED to beat ARI
Only one of these teams can win: TEN, CAR (N.B if both of them lose, one of KC, BAL and GB can lose)

That would give the Bengals the tiebreaker advantage and it would mean the Pats play the Jets. Here's my logic/reasoning:

CIN need to beat NE outright in the strength of victory tiebreaker (because NE would win the next tiebreaker), meaning they need the record of the teams they have beaten to outgain NE by 5 this weekend. ATL play TB and DET play CHI, so both teams will have one win added. And both teams have beaten BAL, but CIN have beaten them twice so a BAL victory would count as +1 to CIN. This means that we're left with:

NE: BUF (x2), TEN, MIA, NYJ, CAR, JAX
CIN: GB, PIT (x2), CLE (x2), BAL, KC

Because the Jets have to win to get in the playoffs, that already counts as a +1 on the NE strength of victory, so the Bengals need to record a +6 in this tiebreaker (or a +7 with NE getting a +2). Because BUF would count as a +2 for NE, they need to lose. PIT and CLE both count as a +2 for CIN, so they need to win (they're also both playing teams on NE's strength of victory list). Hopefully that explains it.

 

[upstater1]

I think i've worked out a scenario in which the pats play the Jets. I don't feel 100% on it though.

PIT NEED to beat MIA
CLE NEED to beat JAX
NYJ NEED to beat CIN
HOU NEED to beat NE
IND NEED to beat BUF
KC NEED to beat DEN
BAL NEED to beat OAK
GB NEED to beat ARI
Only one of these teams can win: TEN, CAR (N.B if both of them lose, one of KC, BAL and GB can lose)

That would give the Bengals the tiebreaker advantage and it would mean the Pats play the Jets. Here's my logic/reasoning:

Good work. This is why I avoided doing the work.

8 games need to go this way for it to be possible for the Jets and Patriots to meet.

It's just as likely as tie games, or 8-8 teams grabbing wild cards, IMO.

 

[d.finn.patsfan.]

Good work. This is why I avoided doing the work.

8 games need to go this way for it to be possible for the Jets and Patriots to meet.

It's just as likely as tie games, or 8-8 teams grabbing wild cards, IMO.

Yeah, if you assume each team has a 50% chance of winning, the odds of the pats facing the Jets are less than 1/256