Idle Thoughts - The strategy edition

[PP2]

Don't be surprised if Gray is inactive again tomorrow in favor of OL or DL line depth, or Tyms (who also plays special teams while Gray doesn't). Don't get me wrong -- I would LOVE to see Gray have another game vs. Indy even half as good as his last outing.

We cut Maneri and replaced him with DL depth. This makes me think Gray is active, and especially so with the weather in mind.

 

[RobertWeathers]

You cannot use the Cincy and Denver games to make your point. These are the first two games where he did a lot of check downs. It isn't like he does it a lot in his career. And we saw with Denver, he gets antsy when he does it and gets interception prone. He was intercepted twice and could have probably been intercepted 1-2 more times.

I still think he has too much Farve in him. He is careless with the ball. He isn't just like Manning because Manning is all about the quick release and timing patterns. Manning dissects the play before the snap and is read to throw the ball right when he gets the snap and rarely holds onto it much longer than that and it is why he rarely got sacked over his career, at least for a pocket QB. Luck holds onto the ball much longer and is prone to make plays on the move which is more like Favre.

Luck could become more like Manning. Manning was more of a gunslinger early in his career and became more disciplined as he got more experienced. But I still see Luck more like Favre. He still lacks the patiences to rely on the check downs all game.

We'll disagree here. He gives the appearance of being a little more like Favre b/c he has to- as you say just like PM early in his career. In 2014 Luck was sacked 26 times. In 2001 Manning was sacked 29 times and also had a ProBowler in Tarrik Glenn protecting his blind side. In that period he threw to his check downs around 40% of the time. Luck is more accurate than Favre but not as accurate as PM.

I view a checkdown as when a QB throws to his non-primary receivers as the #1 & # 2s are covered. In this case of the Colts offense those are RBs and TEs. In 2014, 45% of Luck's completions went to RBs and TE's. Fleener vs the Pats was an example of this.

He did throw some risky balls vs DEN for sure. I consider DEN having a very good defense. It happens. I expect he'll make the same kind of throws today. Some will be safe, some risky because his defense will be outmatched and some will be poor because he didn't read the defense properly.

As for against the Pats, I am not worried about the check downs. The spin on the Colts' offense has been how great it has been the last two weeks, but it has not been all that good. They scored four times on 11 possessions against the Broncos and one TD started on the Broncos side of the field. Against the Bengals, they had very favorable field position on four drives (on their 36 or deeper) and came away with three field goals and a TD. They scored only 26 and 24 points even with a lot of possessions (11 possessions in each game). So if you don't think that the Colts can hold the Pats to under 30 points, you have no worries about the Colts playing the way they did the last two games. In fact, you should be hoping that they do.

I agree completely with you assessment. Throwing to checkdowns is what the team wants as the Colts D does not have the ability to shut the Pats O down so the NEED to keep Brady & Co off the field.

 

[PScottman]

They never blitz a lot. It isn't the amount of the blitzes, but the timing of them. That is what I expecting. On a third and six per se, they might run an A gap blitz or something like that.

It may be total anecdote, but my eyes doth indicate the Pats blitz more on second down than any other.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

And while you'll see a heavy reliance on Gronk, Edelman, LaFell, they will draw the coverage on the MUST MAKE plays and I suspect Brady will look to the unexpected open man on those plays. This is a BIG difference from past years and I think it's something McDaniels and Brady have been working on all season recognizing that going to the "expected" receiver on critical plays was their Achilles heel.

This is a big part of what I read into that "TRUST" thing after week 4; in fact, at that point, LaFell had not yet carved out a role - he got he had greatness trust upon him, if you will. I really think looking for the open man is one of the factors that makes this team more like the SB teams of yore. Sure if they can't stop something you do it until/unless they can (in the passing game, Gronk is more often that guy they just can't match up with). Or, that can just mean plowing the road and getting Blount and/or Gray one hole to exploit... if the "different team" meme about the Colts is oversold, that might end up being a huge focus.