Idle Thoughts - The strategy edition

[patfanken]

Good stuff. Let the disucssion begin

• I know the Pats usually use a contain rush with mobile QBs, but they don't do that with Luck as much. The Pats have found that Luck is susceptible to the A gap blitz and have given him fits with that the last two times he faced the Pats defense. I expect the Pats to use it this tomorrow although you gotta pick your battles with it. They can work overtime to defend it, but I have a feeling it may be the weakness of Luck and their offense. Every QB has a weakness and that looks to be Luck's.

  I don't disagree that the Pats have had so success with the A game pressure, but don't you think that would be a point of emphasis for the improved Colts OL this week? Good strategy wouldn't be to disregard it this week but rather to use the fact you KNOW they worked hard on it to your advantage in other areas. I also think you over value Luck's prior problems with a gap pressure

• Personally, I think the biggest thing the Pats needs to focus on is physicalness. Whether it is a Luck led Colts or a Manning led Colts, they are still a finesse team. You punch them in the mouth and they fold. I know this is a simplistic strategy, but that is why the Pats won the last two games. They just lined up and ran the ball down their throats and they manhandled the Colts receivers on defense.

  I don't disagree, but again I think you overemphasize the so called "softness" of the Colts. Hard to call anyone who plays a full season in the NFL "soft". Also the Colts added a 340 lb good run stuffer in AJones> I don't think he's THE difference in them stopping the run game, he's A difference

• I know it may drive people crazy, but I would adopt a more of a bend don't break style of defense of the past. Go with the two high safeties and force Luck to get yards at 5-10 yards a chunk. Luck is a gun slinger. He needs to pick up yards at 15-30 a pop. You make him do the Brady thing and do a slow methodical drive of 10-12 plays at 6-8 yards a play and he gets restless and makes mistakes by trying to force passes deep. This why I always laugh when people compare Luck to Manning, but he is a Farve clone in this respect. He doesn't have the patience to do long controlled drives.

  I'm not against any defensive strategy s long as its not used too extensively. Changing the looks and personnel groupings Luck sees is more important than any one strategy. BTW - Luck seems to have become more patient as the season wore on.

• Going back to the pass rush, this is why I think the Pats do far less contain rush for Luck. They do blitz more against him to force him to pass quickly and not wait for his receivers to get open. The fact he doesn't have a lot of weapons plays into this strategy that they can afford to not drop the extra man into coverage.

  Even if were true, this aggressive strategy would be dropped the first time Luck gains 20 yds on a scramble or completes a long pass where he extended the play out of the pocket. Its never been in BB's nature to be that aggressive oiutside his own 30

• The Pats have to be concern about Daniel Herron if they follow this strategy. Luck has been throwing to him a lot in the playoffs (18 catches for 117 yards). I didn't watch the Bengals game, but watching the Broncos game he was more a last resort dump off when nothing else is open. So I am not sure they will design passes to him.

  Agreed

• I still think the Colts' defense is overrated. They played the Bengals without AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham. The Bengals' offense struggled a lot during the regular season when Green was out. Against Denver, they had it easy. Force Manning to throw more than 5 yards outside the numbers and Manning couldn't hit the side of the barn. Their defense has improved, but they faced two offenses fighting with the proverbial one hand behind their backs.

  Agreed but with a small caution. While I would be very surprised to see us score less than 30 points. The Colt D IS playing better. I think the addition of Landry and Jones has realy upgraded their run D. Landry is also a more physical presence vs Gronk with very good straight line speed, he struggles mightily in space and is a liability in coverage

• One thing people are missing when they have gushed over Luck this post season, they scored 26 and 24 points. Against the Bengals, they had favorable field position for most of the game. They had drives that started on their own 36, 39, 43, and the Bengals 47 and came away with three FGs and a TD. They scored three times on 11 drives against the Broncos and one of their TD was on a drive starting on the Broncos' 41 yard line. Their offensive struggles that they had at the end of the season have improved, but they are still not a great offense.

  This makes me feel better. It just proves the old adage, "they are never as good as they are being perceived, but never as bad as we might hope."

• On offense, I think the Pats will be in the heavy set for a lot of the game (sorry Ken, I disagree with you although I think we will see it less). I think the Pats will pass a lot more than the previous two games, but I think the Pats are going to out muscle the Colts at the line of scrimmage. Their defensive line isn't big and more of a speed rushing line. I think the Pats will do a lot more play action passes.

You may be right, but its not what I'd do very much. Maybe its the coach in me, but I can't imagine that the Colts haven't prepared what is necessary to stop that formation, or at least control it. If anything , if I was going to use this formation, I'd be passing out of it.

• I think it will be a big game for Lafell and Gronk. I think the Pats are going to pass to receivers who can run through this smallish defensive backfield. Gronk will be throwing people out of the club left and right. I think the reason why their secondary did so good with the Broncos receivers was because they didn't have anyone who could out muscle their DBs and LBs. This is not an Edelman and Amendola type of game (although they may get their share).

  IIRC both Toler and Davis are bigger than average CB's and Landry is a 225lb DB. You can call them a lot of things, good bad or indifferent, but "smallish" isn't one of them. That being said, I don't think you are wrong in your prediction of big games for Gronk and Lafell.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Here are some of my thoughts:

• I know it may drive people crazy, but I would adopt a more of a bend don't break style of defense of the past. Go with the two high safeties and force Luck to get yards at 5-10 yards a chunk. Luck is a gun slinger. He needs to pick up yards at 15-30 a pop. You make him do the Brady thing and do a slow methodical drive of 10-12 plays at 6-8 yards a play and he gets restless and makes mistakes by trying to force passes deep. This why I always laugh when people compare Luck to Manning, but he is a Farve clone in this respect. He doesn't have the patience to do long controlled drives.

• The Pats have to be concern about Daniel Herron if they follow this strategy. Luck has been throwing to him a lot in the playoffs (18 catches for 117 yards). I didn't watch the Bengals game, but watching the Broncos game he was more a last resort dump off when nothing else is open. So I am not sure they will design passes to him

• One thing people are missing when they have gushed over Luck this post season, they scored 26 and 24 points. Against the Bengals, they had favorable field position for most of the game. They had drives that started on their own 36, 39, 43, and the Bengals 47 and came away with three FGs and a TD. They scored three times on 11 drives against the Broncos and one of their TD was on a drive starting on the Broncos' 41 yard line. Their offensive struggles that they had at the end of the season have improved, but they are still not a great offense.

I really don't understand the perception that Luck is a gunslinger. He throws the ball a ton and tries to make plays downfield not because it's in his DNA (like Favre or Bledsoe) its because he has to as his running game and defense are not strong aspects of this team. I disagree- he is exactly like Manning. Hes a student of the game- but because of his inexperience he'll make a mistake or two. Once hes had a few more years in the league, the inexperienced mistakes will go away (providing the Colts have a good D and decent running game).

vs Cinci and DEN he took the check downs and made plays down the field when they were available. The fact that he is targeting his 3rd and 4th options such as Herron, Fleener and Allen tells me he is taking what the defense is giving him and not being reckless with the football.

To your point, this Pats offense is WAY more supercharged than CIN and DEN. I don't see this Colts D keeping the Pats to < 30 points. My fear is that if they allow Luck time to go through his progressions and check downs he'll control the ball. I'd mix it up totally on him. Blitzes, 8 DBs, etc.

Check this out. An article w/ stats that support my thinking...

Luck's major area of struggle against New England has come when he's been blitzed, which is odd because that is usually one of his biggest strengths. Throughout his career, Luck has completed 56.4 percent of his passes for 7.4 yards per attempt, with 34 touchdowns and 12 interceptions against the blitz, good for an 89.6 quarterback rating. In the three games against New England, though, Luck's numbers against the blitz pale in comparison. He's 15-of-31 (48.4 percent) for 180 yards (5.8 per attempt), a touchdown and two interceptions, which equates to a 50.5 quarterback rating.

New England's pressure has forced Luck to hang onto the ball for longer than he usually likes to. For his career, Luck is a significantly better passer when he's able to get the ball out quickly, completing 64.7 percent of his passes when he throws in 2.5 seconds or less compared to only 53.1 percent when he holds the ball for 2.6 seconds or more. The ability to read the blitz and deliver the ball quickly and on target will be key. This will be especially important against New England's A-gap blitz with Jamie Collins, because Indianapolis' pass-blocking is weakest inside:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...chup-andrew-luck-against-new-englands-defense

 

[Gwedd]

As to that whole "Jonas Gray missing in action" stuff. I don't buy that's he's being held out for some infraction or number of infractions. I think he's the ready reserve, and Coach Belichick has been holding him out for the right time, and tomorrow may be that time.

Look at it this way, the Pats have Blount, Vereen and Bolden in the stable already. They know what they have in Gray. Isn't it better to give him a few touches, as they have, to keep him fresh and hold him in case one of the others get hurt? To use as the bowling ball when the right time comes?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Hurry up and be Sunday night.

 

[SacPete1]

Great posts; quality discussion points.

Unlike the Raven game when it appeared at least to me what was key on offense and defense heading into the game (pass heavy offense and contain the run on D), this one doesn't have as obvious a direction.
Some might say its a power game on offense given the success we've had recently which would be perfectly valid but I'm approaching this from looking at most recent form.

Offense
1. multiple packages, may need to feel Indi out on how they want to matchup personnel wise. I think along the lines of Ken's thoughts, how Indi responds to formation and motion will determine Brady's call.
2. I think Indi is going to present itself similar to how they played Denver. Bracket Gronk when he's inside and single him with Landry outside. I also think they will play press man which will challenge Brady to throw deep or what I hope to see which are the 2 man crosses and rubs. I'll be curious to see how the refs call this since we could see alot of contact.
3. Run and play action. I just love that counter with the guard and tackle pulling or the TE wham but this is dangerous if the DLine fires off the snap versus reading. What's more is it really sets up play action but this is what caused the int in the last game and it blew up against the Ravens also. Not sure if we'll see this but if we are effective running the counter, it just begs for this call. Just do your job!
4. Spread them out. We saw this out of strategy and necessity last week but it is so effective because you have the smartest QB in the league determining presnap where the defense is vulnerable and it really protects the line from stunts and extra pressure. So although this may not be their staple, if Indi's run defense is proving effective, I hope they don't hesitate to go to this. Wouldn't even mind seeing them start the game with this since - unexpected and create tempo immediately.

Defense
1. I like Rob's thinking regarding drives but limit the red zone conversions. Luck looks for that big gain and last game and the prior playoff game, we gave up too many. If he wants to check down to Herron, have at it. Test his patience and this will be much less effective in the redzone.
2. 2 TE's. I kind of like Casillas in this formation and play from a base.
3. 3 and 4 WRs. I think we will see various coverages and Revis will play multiple WR's based on coverage and formation. I also believe Indi will see how Ryan and Browner are positioned and will attempt to target them. My wildcard is Butler. We may see him lined up against Montcrief or Hilton. Just a fun projection on my part.

 

[rochrist]

Why did Fleener go off last time the teams played, and should a dinged-up Browner try to cover him again?

This might be a game in which to exploit Collins' versatility and have him line up all over the field -- sometimes playing a conventional LB role, sometimes jamming a TE at the line, occasionally perhaps even jamming a WR, sometimes spying as you said, sometimes blitzing/blitz-faking.

I also like Gwedd's idea of going full amoeba.

Fleener went off last time because that's what the Pats gave them. You'll notice it didn't accomplish a whole lot in terms of winning the game for them.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Sorry if these thoughts are duplicated.

1) The contain game. While this is predictable (of our defense), it is still the best overall strategy against a mobile QB. I think of Luck as a slightly less stocky version of Roethlisberger with better overall skills (which makes him pretty darn good). I think the contain strategy is more successful because it makes what our defense attempts to do better. The concept here is everyone knows their roles and we can better predict what Luck will do with the ball. Once he gets outside the pocket, things breakdown (in our scheme) and it's up to individual/one-on-one rather than team defense. BB can confuse QBs into throws and will have a few plays that might lull Luck into some poor decisions

2) Why is it that getting Arthur Jones back turns the Colts run defense into a top 5 run D? I'm not buying what the pundits are offering. While I don't expect 200 yards rushing, we'll be good enough fr 4+ YPC and be able to run a balanced offense (if that's the plan).

3) Speaking of punditry. I hear quite a bit of the Colts winning this game (which I admit is possible). I just never really get any good reasons behind it.

4) A key to the game should be typical of most games. Turnovers. The Colts do a good job putting points on the board even while committing turnovers. If they can limit those, they will fair well, but that still doesn't guarantee a victory. The Patritos are a complete team and Special Teams can play a huge role. I know the Patriots have a good one, don't recall much on the Colts. Obviously Vinatieri nullifies one advantage we typically have with kicking FGs at Gillette.

5) I want to see the Patriots offense make some successful drives in the first quarter (even if it's only 3 points). I don't get why defenses typically get the better of them for the first quarter plus.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Man, what an awesome thread! Thanks Ken, and others! Much appreciated.

A question: looks like it is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow; if that occurs, how will it affect your key points?

Pats IMO will have an advantage if it rains tomorrow as Colts are an indoor team. Especially their D, which is trying to copy the Seahawks D by quickly and aggressively tackling down the receiver once he receives the ball.

Rob - Granted, e Colts D have not beaten any good/great teams in the last month and so their stats are a bit misleading. But, I certainly see a difference between their D that played in Nov and the one that played last week. None of the Broncos receivers were able to gain much YAC. So, I think that their D will be a lot more stout tomorrow.

 

[IllegalContact]

Sorry......strategy takes a back seat to execution. If the pats execute the way they should strategy won't matter......the colts are knives and the pats are guns

 

[JoeSixPat]

Both Ken and Rob raise some excellent points - and I tend to agree with Ken and acknowledge Robs caveats

Not to oversimplify or disrespect Luck, but the Patriots D was built to win the AFC title game against the Peyton Manning of last year. So that being said I think they will be able to limit the Indy O enough to give Brady a chance to win it.

But I expect you'll see the Colts take a ball control approach to do what they can to limit Brady's time of possession and if they execute that well it could be a VERY effective tactic for them to simply limit the number of plays Brady can make.

On Offense, I tend to think that Belichick won't overthink it. He may have a few plays to keep the Indy D honest and go deep - but those are high risk plays and I think you'll see a ton of Gronk, LaFell and of course the run game (especially if they get a lead - though I've grown used to the O having a slow start)

And while you'll see a heavy reliance on Gronk, Edelman, LaFell, they will draw the coverage on the MUST MAKE plays and I suspect Brady will look to the unexpected open man on those plays. This is a BIG difference from past years and I think it's something McDaniels and Brady have been working on all season recognizing that going to the "expected" receiver on critical plays was their Achilles heel.

Ultimately this all comes down to Brady. Protect him and he'll he'll make the play more often than not. Hence I do expect you'll see extra coverage stay in for him as in other games.

My big question for this game is whether you see the Pats revert to a hurry up offense more than they have this season. Much of that will depend on time of possession but if Belichick/McDaniels sense the Colts D is beginning to tire I expect they'd pounce with that sort of approach.

My prediction? The team that can score the most points should be able to win.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

colts will try to play a similar game to what they did last week against denver. they will play a short passing game and try to dominate time of possession. They cannot beat NE in a shootout so they will likely take htis approach. Therefore our third down defense has to be stellar.

 

[Fencer]

colts will try to play a similar game to what they did last week against denver. they will play a short passing game and try to dominate time of possession. They cannot beat NE in a shootout so they will likely take htis approach. Therefore our third down defense has to be stellar.

I agree that if you're playing on the road in the rain against a team that features Revis and McCourty, with a QB who is good but error-prone and a suspect running game, that the short passing game is your best bet.

 

[PScottman]

Special Teams can play a huge role

This hasn't gotten enough publicity. In the rain - slick synthetic field - one missed block or tackle/wet uniform/wet ball = critical turnover or return touchdown that changes the momentum or the game completely. The Pats would seem to have the bigger advantage on special teams as well - maybe not "head to head" (K, P, KR, PR, coverage) but on the whole the Pats have made numerous special team "big plays" this year.

I thought Chung was due for the good game last week (and somehow I got it right), this week just a feeling that special teams is the key cog necessary to get this team to THE big game.

 

[Tunescribe]

As to that whole "Jonas Gray missing in action" stuff. I don't buy that's he's being held out for some infraction or number of infractions. I think he's the ready reserve, and Coach Belichick has been holding him out for the right time, and tomorrow may be that time.

Look at it this way, the Pats have Blount, Vereen and Bolden in the stable already. They know what they have in Gray. Isn't it better to give him a few touches, as they have, to keep him fresh and hold him in case one of the others get hurt? To use as the bowling ball when the right time comes?

Don't be surprised if Gray is inactive again tomorrow in favor of OL or DL line depth, or Tyms (who also plays special teams while Gray doesn't). Don't get me wrong -- I would LOVE to see Gray have another game vs. Indy even half as good as his last outing.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Maybe it's my current state (sleep-deprivation), but listening to shows on the NFL network (and others) they don't seem to spend much time on what the Patriots must do to win. I see alot of what the Seahawks will do to win, what the Packers must do to win.

Much about how the Colts have improved on defense and it appears their offense is the most dynamic in the league. Not much love for the Pats (with few exceptions).

My question (finally) is do you think the experts shy away from the topic because they really just don't know what the Patriots are going to do (on offense and defense)? They are the premier game-plan/opponent specific team in the league. could it be they just don't want to appear wrong in their guess (not that they would ever revisit that).

My gut says I'm wrong, but I'd expect quite a bit more praise.

 

[BradfordPatsFan]

Offensively I'm scared that on the first series the Pats will try to go deep on play-action -- in the hope that the Colts are too amped up and bite hard -- and wind up missing it and starting with a three-and-out.

I think this is exactly what they will do and have felt that since late Sunday evening. I think they can go with their 6 OL formation and try to sneak Edelman/LaFell/Amendola deep, it doesn't have to be Tymms.

I also predicted that we would see a major defensive wrinkle along the lines of the well-known S/CB swap we saw in '03. Once Luck is thrown off his game, he doesn't really do a good job of recovering. When he is off, he is off, period.

Again, something I've been thinking we may see. Maybe Collins over the TE, jamming him and then releasing him to Chung or Browner, while Colins acts as a defacto spy or delayed blitzer.

 

[Rob0729]

I really don't understand the perception that Luck is a gunslinger. He throws the ball a ton and tries to make plays downfield not because it's in his DNA (like Favre or Bledsoe) its because he has to as his running game and defense are not strong aspects of this team. I disagree- he is exactly like Manning. Hes a student of the game- but because of his inexperience he'll make a mistake or two. Once hes had a few more years in the league, the inexperienced mistakes will go away (providing the Colts have a good D and decent running game).

vs Cinci and DEN he took the check downs and made plays down the field when they were available. The fact that he is targeting his 3rd and 4th options such as Herron, Fleener and Allen tells me he is taking what the defense is giving him and not being reckless with the football.

To your point, this Pats offense is WAY more supercharged than CIN and DEN. I don't see this Colts D keeping the Pats to < 30 points. My fear is that if they allow Luck time to go through his progressions and check downs he'll control the ball. I'd mix it up totally on him. Blitzes, 8 DBs, etc.

Check this out. An article w/ stats that support my thinking...



http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...chup-andrew-luck-against-new-englands-defense

You cannot use the Cincy and Denver games to make your point. These are the first two games where he did a lot of check downs. It isn't like he does it a lot in his career. And we saw with Denver, he gets antsy when he does it and gets interception prone. He was intercepted twice and could have probably been intercepted 1-2 more times.

I still think he has too much Farve in him. He is careless with the ball. He isn't just like Manning because Manning is all about the quick release and timing patterns. Manning dissects the play before the snap and is read to throw the ball right when he gets the snap and rarely holds onto it much longer than that and it is why he rarely got sacked over his career, at least for a pocket QB. Luck holds onto the ball much longer and is prone to make plays on the move which is more like Favre.

The perception of Favre is way too negative. He is still one of the best QBs of all time. He did have a proclivity to turn the ball over, but he also made a lot of big plays. Sorta like Luck. But even as a gunslinger, it doesn't mean Favre was throwing the ball over the field all game. He still studied the game and still read defenses and made a lot of disciplined throws.

Luck could become more like Manning. Manning was more of a gunslinger early in his career and became more disciplined as he got more experienced. But I still see Luck more like Favre. He still lacks the patiences to rely on the check downs all game.

As for against the Pats, I am not worried about the check downs. The spin on the Colts' offense has been how great it has been the last two weeks, but it has not been all that good. They scored four times on 11 possessions against the Broncos and one TD started on the Broncos side of the field. Against the Bengals, they had very favorable field position on four drives (on their 36 or deeper) and came away with three field goals and a TD. They scored only 26 and 24 points even with a lot of possessions (11 possessions in each game). So if you don't think that the Colts can hold the Pats to under 30 points, you have no worries about the Colts playing the way they did the last two games. In fact, you should be hoping that they do.

 

[Rob0729]

Good stuff. Let the disucssion begin

• I don't disagree that the Pats have had so success with the A game pressure, but don't you think that would be a point of emphasis for the improved Colts OL this week? Good strategy wouldn't be to disregard it this week but rather to use the fact you KNOW they worked hard on it to your advantage in other areas. I also think you over value Luck's prior problems with a gap pressure

• I don't disagree, but again I think you overemphasize the so called "softness" of the Colts. Hard to call anyone who plays a full season in the NFL "soft". Also the Colts added a 340 lb good run stuffer in AJones> I don't think he's THE difference in them stopping the run game, he's A difference

• I'm not against any defensive strategy s long as its not used too extensively. Changing the looks and personnel groupings Luck sees is more important than any one strategy. BTW - Luck seems to have become more patient as the season wore on.

• Even if were true, this aggressive strategy would be dropped the first time Luck gains 20 yds on a scramble or completes a long pass where he extended the play out of the pocket. Its never been in BB's nature to be that aggressive oiutside his own 30

• Agreed

• Agreed but with a small caution. While I would be very surprised to see us score less than 30 points. The Colt D IS playing better. I think the addition of Landry and Jones has realy upgraded their run D. Landry is also a more physical presence vs Gronk with very good straight line speed, he struggles mightily in space and is a liability in coverage

• This makes me feel better. It just proves the old adage, "they are never as good as they are being perceived, but never as bad as we might hope."

You may be right, but its not what I'd do very much. Maybe its the coach in me, but I can't imagine that the Colts haven't prepared what is necessary to stop that formation, or at least control it. If anything , if I was going to use this formation, I'd be passing out of it.

• IIRC both Toler and Davis are bigger than average CB's and Landry is a 225lb DB. You can call them a lot of things, good bad or indifferent, but "smallish" isn't one of them. That being said, I don't think you are wrong in your prediction of big games for Gronk and Lafell.

I don't advocate blitzing every down or most of the game. And I don't expect them to. I expect the Pats to pick and choose their blitzing. They never blitz a lot. It isn't the amount of the blitzes, but the timing of them. That is what I expecting. On a third and six per se, they might run an A gap blitz or something like that.

I still don't know how much better their defense is. They gave up 42 points to the Cowboys in week 16 (Romo had 4 TD passes and Brandon Weeden threw a 43 yard TD pass on them), 24 points vs. the Browns in week 14 (a bad offense), and 27 points vs. the Redskins in week 13 (another bad offense where Colt Freakin McCoy threw for 392 yards and 3 TDs most of which when the game was still a game). I think their defense has faced weak offenses in recent weeks. They beat on the Titans, the Bengals without AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham, and the Broncos with Manning sucking and Fox abandoning the run even in a close game.

I may be wrong about the size of the secondary.

 

[Rob0729]

As to that whole "Jonas Gray missing in action" stuff. I don't buy that's he's being held out for some infraction or number of infractions. I think he's the ready reserve, and Coach Belichick has been holding him out for the right time, and tomorrow may be that time.

Look at it this way, the Pats have Blount, Vereen and Bolden in the stable already. They know what they have in Gray. Isn't it better to give him a few touches, as they have, to keep him fresh and hold him in case one of the others get hurt? To use as the bowling ball when the right time comes?

Rumors are that Gray has a high ankle sprain, but people forget that Blount ran all over the Colts' defense around this time last year. He did have 166 yards, 6.9 YPC, and 4 TDs vs. the Colts. That is actually more effective than Gray's performance this year of 201 yards, 5.4 YPC, and 4 TDs. People look at the total yards, but ignore the fact that the Colts had more problems stopping Blount than Gray. NOTE: I understand the long TD run by Blount skews the averages, but it still goes to show that Blount is harder for the Colts to defend.

Personally, I am running Blount on this smaller front anyway. You give Blount the shot and if he fails, then run Gray. Not the other way around.

 

[shmessy]

Don't be surprised if Gray is inactive again tomorrow in favor of OL or DL line depth, or Tyms (who also plays special teams while Gray doesn't). Don't get me wrong -- I would LOVE to see Gray have another game vs. Indy even half as good as his last outing.

Here is the BEST weather that Gillette will see today:

Why would Gray be inactive? With the opposition and the rain, he is perfect for this game as he also has good receiving skills out of the backfield.

I agree with Mike Reiss in that Tyms and Boyce should be inactive today. In these conditions against this fast and light defense, they are 3rd nipples.

This is a Blount/Gray/Cam Fleming game.