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I have given this game a lot of thought. On Monday I started a thread about strategy and how to attack the Jags potent defense. It was typically very long, rambling, and disjointed since I was writing it very late. I was going to go back to it later and clean it up before I posted it, but there have since been two excellent threads from Nikolai and BaconG that not only made my post redundant but did it better, so I deleted it just about the time reports came out about Brady's injury. Since then I have avoided all the frustratingly predictable noise coming out of local and national media and focused my reading here. So here are my pregame thoughts
1. Brady's injury is real and relatively serious. But based on the fact they didn't bring in another QB leads me to feel comfortable that Brady will be out there on Sunday. However, I DO expect it to affect his performance in some ways. Can he take a direct snap from C? Will his accuracy and velocity be affected? Will he be able to take hits and fall without reinjuring the hand?
All these are legitimate questions that can only be answered on Sunday. I hate all the speculative crap that is being thrown around. My media tolerance level is about at 4 minutes and dropping. This injury simply " is what it is". Nothing can be done about it.
I also believe if Brady can't go or gets knocked out, people will be surprised how effective Brian Hoyer is within his skill set. He obviously can't do everything Brady does, but Josh will give him a game plan that is within his skill set and the team will be competitive with the Jags. This isn't going to be a shootout so merely competent QB CAN win
2. Amid the omnipresence of the media coverage, our defense remains a well-kept secret. Yes, the Jags present a very difficult challenge to the offense, BUT they have to score too.
I read somewhere that PFF did a side by side comparison between the Pats defense and the Jags defense based on their scores over the course of the regular season using a standard 4-3-4 alignment of starters. If you asked the question, how many Pats players had better scores, the answer was ZERO.
Now granted guys like Chung, McCourty, TFlowers, and Brown were all very close to their counterparts, but the rest weren't. So why aren't I worried? Because of something I've said many times this season. The SUM of this defense is better than it's individual parts. Over the last 10 games of the season, no team allowed fewer points than the Pats defense. You don't have to defend individual players or compare them to the great talent that is on our opponent's team. In the end, it comes down to which defense allows the fewest points. Right?
3. Game planning. (one man's opinion)
a. Offense- This is NOT going to be a fun game for the game day thread crowd, especially at the start. I think it will be prudent for Josh to come out of the gate very cautiously. Ball security and field position should be paramount in the first 2 or 3 drives. By then you can see what the matchups are vs various formations and motions, and who is winning individual battles and who's not. The Jags are a lot tough team to deal with, with the lead. It would be great to come out of the box and "fling it". just not prudent.
So those guys will have their heads exploding much like they did last week at the start of the game. Brady's injury situation makes this strategy even more important.
b. Key in that will be to determine how they intend to deal with Gronk. From some talk from Ramsey, it looks likely that when Gronk goes outside the hash Ramsey might get the nod. Inside it will be a combination of their fast LB's and S's Likely in some kind of double.
Comebacks or hooks might be good routes when he's outside. Even Ramsey will have a hard time getting around Gronk to defend those types of routes. Also, Brady can't be afraid to throw the ball to Gronk even when he's apparently covered, especially if he isn't being doubled.
c. Motions and getting in Bunch formations are a good way to free up Cooks and get him a running start into the Jags secondary. Leaving him out wide against the Jags bigger physical CB's isn't going to work if we want Cooks to have an impact in this game beyond being a decoy. The same goes for Hogan and Amendola.
d. Running the ball, especially given Brady's situation, is key. Like always, the number of the rushes are just as important as the yards gained. 25-30 would be a total we should look for. Over 30 would be better.
The Jags DL like to penetrate, so traps and wham schemes could work. More importantly, getting guys out to the 2nd level to attack their mini-OLB's should be a huge goal for that OL. The TE's ability to stay with those guys will be big. The more effective the run game is, the more open RB's will be in the passing game.
The Steeler's 2nd TE had a HUGE game last week. Wouldn't it be ironic if Dwayne Allen broke out now?
e. Defense- Again just like with the offense, I'm guessing that Patricia will go pretty vanilla for the Jags first few series to see what they will do an then adjust to what worked for them. I will be very surprised to see the Jags run game have much consistent success on Sunday, but the run defense has improved greatly since week one, and James Harrison's addition will boost it even more.
f. So I see the Pats start the game with 2 deep safeties and playing mostly zone coverages until they see what the Jags have planned. As the game moves along, I expect more blitzing, more DL stems, more man with a single high safety look.
g. Home field gives the Pats a real edge if the place is rocking, and there is no reason why it shouldn't be.
h. In a game where its possible that the defenses are controlling the action, special teams will be critical. With scoring at a premium whichever team makes a big play on ST's will create a huge edge for his team. One shank, one muff, or one missed tackle on a return can turn this game around in a moment.
i. I avoided stating the obvious but it is so important I HAVE to do it. Turnovers will ultimately dictate the winner. They are among the best in creating them, and we are among the best in avoiding them. IIRC they are +11 and we are +6. I think it will be more important to NOT turn over the ball to them, that it is to create TO's by them.
j. I was pretty disappointed in the ref assignments mostly be this crew has a history of throwing a LOT of flags. It makes me nervous. The Pats have been on the right side of some calls this season. If I'm thinking conspiracy, the NFL probably doesn't want to leave the impression that the Pats are getting all the calls, but wouldn't mind that much if the impression was that a few calls went against them. The stat that the Pats are 3-5 with this ref fills me with a bit of dread.
k. If I hear about Tom Coughlin's "impact" on this game one more time, I will scream. What a non-story. Tom Coughlin didn't cause the helmet catch or the Manningham/Eli prayer that got answered. His planning didn't allow the Giants to recover all 3 fumbles in 2011 or cause the refs to swallow 3 obvious flags in 2007. Tom Coughlin is a very good HC who led 2 very hot teams to a title but is NOT in BB's head in the least, and neither are the Giants who have been essentially irrelevant in this century EXCEPT for those 2 years.
l. I can't wait for the game to start if only because the media circus will finally be over, and I can go back to listening to something other than music or NPR longer than 4 minutes when I'm stuck in the car.
1. Brady's injury is real and relatively serious. But based on the fact they didn't bring in another QB leads me to feel comfortable that Brady will be out there on Sunday. However, I DO expect it to affect his performance in some ways. Can he take a direct snap from C? Will his accuracy and velocity be affected? Will he be able to take hits and fall without reinjuring the hand?
All these are legitimate questions that can only be answered on Sunday. I hate all the speculative crap that is being thrown around. My media tolerance level is about at 4 minutes and dropping. This injury simply " is what it is". Nothing can be done about it.
I also believe if Brady can't go or gets knocked out, people will be surprised how effective Brian Hoyer is within his skill set. He obviously can't do everything Brady does, but Josh will give him a game plan that is within his skill set and the team will be competitive with the Jags. This isn't going to be a shootout so merely competent QB CAN win
2. Amid the omnipresence of the media coverage, our defense remains a well-kept secret. Yes, the Jags present a very difficult challenge to the offense, BUT they have to score too.
I read somewhere that PFF did a side by side comparison between the Pats defense and the Jags defense based on their scores over the course of the regular season using a standard 4-3-4 alignment of starters. If you asked the question, how many Pats players had better scores, the answer was ZERO.
Now granted guys like Chung, McCourty, TFlowers, and Brown were all very close to their counterparts, but the rest weren't. So why aren't I worried? Because of something I've said many times this season. The SUM of this defense is better than it's individual parts. Over the last 10 games of the season, no team allowed fewer points than the Pats defense. You don't have to defend individual players or compare them to the great talent that is on our opponent's team. In the end, it comes down to which defense allows the fewest points. Right?
3. Game planning. (one man's opinion)
a. Offense- This is NOT going to be a fun game for the game day thread crowd, especially at the start. I think it will be prudent for Josh to come out of the gate very cautiously. Ball security and field position should be paramount in the first 2 or 3 drives. By then you can see what the matchups are vs various formations and motions, and who is winning individual battles and who's not. The Jags are a lot tough team to deal with, with the lead. It would be great to come out of the box and "fling it". just not prudent.
So those guys will have their heads exploding much like they did last week at the start of the game. Brady's injury situation makes this strategy even more important.
b. Key in that will be to determine how they intend to deal with Gronk. From some talk from Ramsey, it looks likely that when Gronk goes outside the hash Ramsey might get the nod. Inside it will be a combination of their fast LB's and S's Likely in some kind of double.
Comebacks or hooks might be good routes when he's outside. Even Ramsey will have a hard time getting around Gronk to defend those types of routes. Also, Brady can't be afraid to throw the ball to Gronk even when he's apparently covered, especially if he isn't being doubled.
c. Motions and getting in Bunch formations are a good way to free up Cooks and get him a running start into the Jags secondary. Leaving him out wide against the Jags bigger physical CB's isn't going to work if we want Cooks to have an impact in this game beyond being a decoy. The same goes for Hogan and Amendola.
d. Running the ball, especially given Brady's situation, is key. Like always, the number of the rushes are just as important as the yards gained. 25-30 would be a total we should look for. Over 30 would be better.
The Jags DL like to penetrate, so traps and wham schemes could work. More importantly, getting guys out to the 2nd level to attack their mini-OLB's should be a huge goal for that OL. The TE's ability to stay with those guys will be big. The more effective the run game is, the more open RB's will be in the passing game.
The Steeler's 2nd TE had a HUGE game last week. Wouldn't it be ironic if Dwayne Allen broke out now?
e. Defense- Again just like with the offense, I'm guessing that Patricia will go pretty vanilla for the Jags first few series to see what they will do an then adjust to what worked for them. I will be very surprised to see the Jags run game have much consistent success on Sunday, but the run defense has improved greatly since week one, and James Harrison's addition will boost it even more.
f. So I see the Pats start the game with 2 deep safeties and playing mostly zone coverages until they see what the Jags have planned. As the game moves along, I expect more blitzing, more DL stems, more man with a single high safety look.
g. Home field gives the Pats a real edge if the place is rocking, and there is no reason why it shouldn't be.
h. In a game where its possible that the defenses are controlling the action, special teams will be critical. With scoring at a premium whichever team makes a big play on ST's will create a huge edge for his team. One shank, one muff, or one missed tackle on a return can turn this game around in a moment.
i. I avoided stating the obvious but it is so important I HAVE to do it. Turnovers will ultimately dictate the winner. They are among the best in creating them, and we are among the best in avoiding them. IIRC they are +11 and we are +6. I think it will be more important to NOT turn over the ball to them, that it is to create TO's by them.
j. I was pretty disappointed in the ref assignments mostly be this crew has a history of throwing a LOT of flags. It makes me nervous. The Pats have been on the right side of some calls this season. If I'm thinking conspiracy, the NFL probably doesn't want to leave the impression that the Pats are getting all the calls, but wouldn't mind that much if the impression was that a few calls went against them. The stat that the Pats are 3-5 with this ref fills me with a bit of dread.
k. If I hear about Tom Coughlin's "impact" on this game one more time, I will scream. What a non-story. Tom Coughlin didn't cause the helmet catch or the Manningham/Eli prayer that got answered. His planning didn't allow the Giants to recover all 3 fumbles in 2011 or cause the refs to swallow 3 obvious flags in 2007. Tom Coughlin is a very good HC who led 2 very hot teams to a title but is NOT in BB's head in the least, and neither are the Giants who have been essentially irrelevant in this century EXCEPT for those 2 years.
l. I can't wait for the game to start if only because the media circus will finally be over, and I can go back to listening to something other than music or NPR longer than 4 minutes when I'm stuck in the car.
