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This has been a real strange preseason for the NFL. VERY strange. No preseason games to gauge your team's strengths and weaknesses. Very little hitting during practices. No idea how the draftee's and other new players are going to fit in. Hard to judge the talent and depth levels in a LOT of areas like the DL, LB's TE's and the WR's. By now in any other season, we'd be talking specifics in so many areas. Things that we'd have seen with our own eyeballs or analyse by professionals that we trust.
We are "SUPPOSED" to be strong in the secondary, OL, RB, and coaching and weak at DL, LB, TE and WR, not to mention a HUGE question mark at QB. But all that is just massive supposition. So what do we ACTUALLY know going into Sunday's game? Unfortunately the answer is NOTHING.....and I find this situation that we are in kind of FUN. Think about it. The NFL is experiencing what EVERY HS, and college program deals with EVERY season. When I was a HS, we usually had just 3 weeks before our first game. In my program that started with a week at a camp in NH which ended in a scrimmage with another team. A week of practice followed by another scrimmage, and then a week of game preparation. Again. not a lot of time. Many new faces every year. Kids who played freshman football and had some idea of the system and semantics, and just as many new kids who had to learn everything from scratch. All this with a staff or 4 or 5 coaches including myself. Colleges get a perhaps a week or 2 more in their preparation and usually have more facilities and coaches, but essentially they are in the same boat in their preparation compared to the nearly year round work that is done in the NFL.
This is the week that every NFL team's DC has to face an offense and have very little idea about what the F#ck they are going to see from their opponent! I find that terribly exciting. Sure the Dolphins can go back through 20 years of tape to guess at what the Pats will run, but that doesn't mean that's what they will get on Sunday. Unfortunately the same can be said for us. Does anyone have any idea what they are going to throw at us????????? I don't have a clue.
Well there ARE a few truisms in the game of football Things that every team runs. Off tackle power plays, isolation inside runs. Traps and draw are going to be seen in every teams's offense. I guarantee you will see these running plays on Sunday from both teams. The question is, from what formations, motions, and alignments. No one knows, and is a real sense this will make Sunday's game even more exciting and interesting. Teams won't know much about the other team's personnel. Which guy to attack on a blitz, Which LB give you can attack as the most favorable match up, etc Same can be said in the passing game. There are routes that are basic to every team. Go's with a pattern breaking underneath. TE's up the seam. Crosses, picks, screens and wheel routes will all be seen at some point in the game, but again from what formations, motions and alignments???? No one knows, and I think that's very cool.
.
Some more Idle thoughts
1. With all the moaning and weeping about our lack of WR's, I mentioned how low the correlation was between great WR's and superbowl winning teams. While googling stuff on this I came upon this factiod. In 52 superbowl games there have ONLY been 15 first team all pro WR's that have been that have been on the winning team. And NONE since 2006 (Marvin Harrision). In fact Harrison has been the ONLY one in this CENTURY That's the most astonishing aspect of this stat. Since Harrison played in the Colt's superbowl win the passing game has exploded in importance. In the past a 4000 yd season for a QB was a sign of greatness. Now its become the "mendoza line" for NFL mediocrity. It took the NFL until 2008 (Drew Brees) to have its FIRST 5000yd season and in just a decade later, every top 10 QB reaches or gets very close to that number. So with all these ELITE WR's racking up big stats, and passing being the key to EVERY offense how come so few are ever on a superbowl winning team?
Bottom line - the importance of WR's is OVERRATED. Why? The pool of NFL caliber WR's is the LARGEST position pool in football. Pass crazy colleges are producing athletic, fast, with good hands WR's of ALL sizes and shapes at a enormous rate. So even a "WR poor" team like the Pats will be able to run out great athletes who can run fast and catch the ball. Will they be the fastest, or quickest or biggest? Probably not. But CAN they be adequate, like 17 of the last 20 teams have been (including ALL the superbowl winning teams). I think there is a chance they can be. Or maybe not, but that doesn't make it fair to dismiss them before one meaningful snap has been made.
2. One thing for CERTAIN before we get to Sunday is we can't make ANY judgments about this team either positive or negative, especially in this first game for all the reasons given above. At best we can get inklings of what this version of the NE Patriots can be. Of course a win will give us more hope that this team can still win the division, but a loss should not send us into cataclysmic despair. My guess there will be a lot of strange outcomes this first week. I should not need to mention how many great Patriot teams have started the first 4 games very slowly. For the most part the one constant we've seen over the last 20 years is that Patriot teams are better at the end of the season then they were at the start (hopefully last year's results will be the exception that proves the rule.
3. Players on defense that really need to "rise to the occasion" this season
a. Bryan Cowart - Lawrence Guy is as steady as a rock, and perhaps one of the most underrated players in the league. Adam Butler is what he is. An undersized DT who can occasionally make a play on a pass, but to this point in his career, a liability against the run. The same can be said to a lesser degree about Detrick Wise, but reports are he improved his strength and weight so we Might see jump in his play.
But the Pats have ONE guy who does have size, strength AND explosiveness on the DL and that is Bryan Cowart. I can only go by my seeing him in training camp for the past 2 years. He came in very raw, but he has a lot of physical skill and a great first step. Now that he is entering his 3rd year in the system, I am REALLY hoping that the Pats will be rewarded for their patience this season.
b. Derrick Rivers - Now THERE's a blast from the past. Injuries have crippled his previous 3 seasons making him a complete non-entity and ultimate after thought going into this current season. I really hadn't given him a second thought until last week I heard a report that he was having a great camp and really flashing (it might have been Chatham) So I'm adding him to this list. He had great measurables coming out of college, so the potential IS there.
c. Jawhaun Bentely - Here is a kid who showed great promise his rookie year, got hurt his 2nd, and was pretty mediocre to my eyes last season. With the loss of Hightower for the season, I don't think anyone on the defense will be needed to make the jump more than Bentley. We've got some OLB talent, but inside we lost Van Noy and Roberts as well as Hightower. So we are thin as well as having unproven talent in that area.
Fortunately I think we are going to be predominately in a 4-3 alignment a majority of the time with only 2 LB's on the field most of the time with our plethora of S's (Dugger and Phillips playing a lot of "LB" snaps since I expect us to be in a nickel D a lot of the time.
d. And while I'm excited about Kyle Dugger, I never expect rookies to make a big impact on this team. It could happen, and it HAS happened on occasion. But better never to expect it. On the other hand, I do hope (and we need it to happen) that Adrian Phillips makes an impact on this team. He is the reason I was not a bit concerned when Chung opted out. And while Patrick has been a great player for the Pats, however he has really gotten the crap beat out of him the last few years. The guy sells out on EVERY play and plays much bigger than his actual size. I think the wear and tear was starting to show. It had to. In the end I think he did the smart thing to opt out. If he'd come back he would have led my list of surprise cuts given who they drafted and signed this off season.. So it is up to Adrian Phillips to make a prophet out of me and I think he can do it.
Players on offense who need to show up this season.
a. Cam Newton - but that topic has been discussed ad nausium, and his inclusion in this list only shows I have a keen sense of the obvious.
b. Cajuste - I know he's on the 3 game IR, but if we are truly going to have one of the better OL's in the league, we need him to be the guy who showed had first round potential before he got injured at the end of his senior year. BTW- for these first 3 games we better hope Eleumanor is a better RT than he was a RG, though he was another guy who I heard had some nice things said about him in camp.
c. NKeal Harry - another example of the "keen sense of the obvious". Harry doesn't have to be an all pro, or be among the leaders in receptions or yards. But what he DOES have to be this season is a RELIABLE receiving option for Cam Newton. He has to show he has learned to use his size to make up for any lack of quickness. So he doesn't have to be Michael Thomas or AJ Green. He needs to be Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, or Deon Branch. Guys who will be where they are supposed be and catch the ball.....most of the time.
d, Devin Asiasi- TE's have had a key role in every SB team except the first one (though Wiggy came up big in the playoffs) - If we do have a rookie that is good enough to have a real impact on this team, it needs to be Asiasi - In HIS rookie year, Gronk only had 545 receiving yds, but he had 10 TD's If Asiasi had similar receiving yds and even just half Gronk's rookie TD production I'd call it a win. We shall see.
Finally to have any real success. Or at least the kind of success we've come to expect. We need to be relatively healthy. If there is one Achilles Heal of this team is the usual experienced, quality depth. Unfortunately looking over at the depth of this team, too much of our depth is made up of rookies or relatively inexperienced players, so good health will be key to this team.
BTW- another one of those great unknowns of this team has got to be special teams. Anyone know who the kicker is going to be? My God, when have we had to ask THAT question so close to the season. Think about it. For 20 years we've had 2 guys who were among the best kickers in the league. Now its a mystery. Likely to be Folk, I guess, but who knows. Of course having an 80% field goal kicker is what we've been used to the last 2 decades, but I'd settle for 75% this season. As to the rest of the ST's, I worry less about it as the NFL is their "wisdom" has pretty much devalued the overall kicking game by legislating away in the guise of "safety" making it almost impossible to block a FG, or run back KO's or punts. Bill is still as ST's coach at heart, so I have confidence he'll make our ST's among the league's best (at least the coverage and punt teams. )
So those are MY idle thoughts as we go into the start of the 2020 season. I'm really looking forward to seeing how well or poorly the quality of execution is. I didn't catch any of the KC - Houston game, though it sounds like KC dominated the last 3 quarters. AAAAAAND we're off.
We are "SUPPOSED" to be strong in the secondary, OL, RB, and coaching and weak at DL, LB, TE and WR, not to mention a HUGE question mark at QB. But all that is just massive supposition. So what do we ACTUALLY know going into Sunday's game? Unfortunately the answer is NOTHING.....and I find this situation that we are in kind of FUN. Think about it. The NFL is experiencing what EVERY HS, and college program deals with EVERY season. When I was a HS, we usually had just 3 weeks before our first game. In my program that started with a week at a camp in NH which ended in a scrimmage with another team. A week of practice followed by another scrimmage, and then a week of game preparation. Again. not a lot of time. Many new faces every year. Kids who played freshman football and had some idea of the system and semantics, and just as many new kids who had to learn everything from scratch. All this with a staff or 4 or 5 coaches including myself. Colleges get a perhaps a week or 2 more in their preparation and usually have more facilities and coaches, but essentially they are in the same boat in their preparation compared to the nearly year round work that is done in the NFL.
This is the week that every NFL team's DC has to face an offense and have very little idea about what the F#ck they are going to see from their opponent! I find that terribly exciting. Sure the Dolphins can go back through 20 years of tape to guess at what the Pats will run, but that doesn't mean that's what they will get on Sunday. Unfortunately the same can be said for us. Does anyone have any idea what they are going to throw at us????????? I don't have a clue.
Well there ARE a few truisms in the game of football Things that every team runs. Off tackle power plays, isolation inside runs. Traps and draw are going to be seen in every teams's offense. I guarantee you will see these running plays on Sunday from both teams. The question is, from what formations, motions, and alignments. No one knows, and is a real sense this will make Sunday's game even more exciting and interesting. Teams won't know much about the other team's personnel. Which guy to attack on a blitz, Which LB give you can attack as the most favorable match up, etc Same can be said in the passing game. There are routes that are basic to every team. Go's with a pattern breaking underneath. TE's up the seam. Crosses, picks, screens and wheel routes will all be seen at some point in the game, but again from what formations, motions and alignments???? No one knows, and I think that's very cool.
.Some more Idle thoughts
1. With all the moaning and weeping about our lack of WR's, I mentioned how low the correlation was between great WR's and superbowl winning teams. While googling stuff on this I came upon this factiod. In 52 superbowl games there have ONLY been 15 first team all pro WR's that have been that have been on the winning team. And NONE since 2006 (Marvin Harrision). In fact Harrison has been the ONLY one in this CENTURY That's the most astonishing aspect of this stat. Since Harrison played in the Colt's superbowl win the passing game has exploded in importance. In the past a 4000 yd season for a QB was a sign of greatness. Now its become the "mendoza line" for NFL mediocrity. It took the NFL until 2008 (Drew Brees) to have its FIRST 5000yd season and in just a decade later, every top 10 QB reaches or gets very close to that number. So with all these ELITE WR's racking up big stats, and passing being the key to EVERY offense how come so few are ever on a superbowl winning team?
Bottom line - the importance of WR's is OVERRATED. Why? The pool of NFL caliber WR's is the LARGEST position pool in football. Pass crazy colleges are producing athletic, fast, with good hands WR's of ALL sizes and shapes at a enormous rate. So even a "WR poor" team like the Pats will be able to run out great athletes who can run fast and catch the ball. Will they be the fastest, or quickest or biggest? Probably not. But CAN they be adequate, like 17 of the last 20 teams have been (including ALL the superbowl winning teams). I think there is a chance they can be. Or maybe not, but that doesn't make it fair to dismiss them before one meaningful snap has been made.
2. One thing for CERTAIN before we get to Sunday is we can't make ANY judgments about this team either positive or negative, especially in this first game for all the reasons given above. At best we can get inklings of what this version of the NE Patriots can be. Of course a win will give us more hope that this team can still win the division, but a loss should not send us into cataclysmic despair. My guess there will be a lot of strange outcomes this first week. I should not need to mention how many great Patriot teams have started the first 4 games very slowly. For the most part the one constant we've seen over the last 20 years is that Patriot teams are better at the end of the season then they were at the start (hopefully last year's results will be the exception that proves the rule.
3. Players on defense that really need to "rise to the occasion" this season
a. Bryan Cowart - Lawrence Guy is as steady as a rock, and perhaps one of the most underrated players in the league. Adam Butler is what he is. An undersized DT who can occasionally make a play on a pass, but to this point in his career, a liability against the run. The same can be said to a lesser degree about Detrick Wise, but reports are he improved his strength and weight so we Might see jump in his play.
But the Pats have ONE guy who does have size, strength AND explosiveness on the DL and that is Bryan Cowart. I can only go by my seeing him in training camp for the past 2 years. He came in very raw, but he has a lot of physical skill and a great first step. Now that he is entering his 3rd year in the system, I am REALLY hoping that the Pats will be rewarded for their patience this season.
b. Derrick Rivers - Now THERE's a blast from the past.
Injuries have crippled his previous 3 seasons making him a complete non-entity and ultimate after thought going into this current season. I really hadn't given him a second thought until last week I heard a report that he was having a great camp and really flashing (it might have been Chatham) So I'm adding him to this list. He had great measurables coming out of college, so the potential IS there.c. Jawhaun Bentely - Here is a kid who showed great promise his rookie year, got hurt his 2nd, and was pretty mediocre to my eyes last season. With the loss of Hightower for the season, I don't think anyone on the defense will be needed to make the jump more than Bentley. We've got some OLB talent, but inside we lost Van Noy and Roberts as well as Hightower. So we are thin as well as having unproven talent in that area.
Fortunately I think we are going to be predominately in a 4-3 alignment a majority of the time with only 2 LB's on the field most of the time with our plethora of S's (Dugger and Phillips playing a lot of "LB" snaps since I expect us to be in a nickel D a lot of the time.
d. And while I'm excited about Kyle Dugger, I never expect rookies to make a big impact on this team. It could happen, and it HAS happened on occasion. But better never to expect it. On the other hand, I do hope (and we need it to happen) that Adrian Phillips makes an impact on this team. He is the reason I was not a bit concerned when Chung opted out. And while Patrick has been a great player for the Pats, however he has really gotten the crap beat out of him the last few years. The guy sells out on EVERY play and plays much bigger than his actual size. I think the wear and tear was starting to show. It had to. In the end I think he did the smart thing to opt out. If he'd come back he would have led my list of surprise cuts given who they drafted and signed this off season.. So it is up to Adrian Phillips to make a prophet out of me and I think he can do it.
Players on offense who need to show up this season.
a. Cam Newton - but that topic has been discussed ad nausium, and his inclusion in this list only shows I have a keen sense of the obvious.
b. Cajuste - I know he's on the 3 game IR, but if we are truly going to have one of the better OL's in the league, we need him to be the guy who showed had first round potential before he got injured at the end of his senior year. BTW- for these first 3 games we better hope Eleumanor is a better RT than he was a RG, though he was another guy who I heard had some nice things said about him in camp.
c. NKeal Harry - another example of the "keen sense of the obvious". Harry doesn't have to be an all pro, or be among the leaders in receptions or yards. But what he DOES have to be this season is a RELIABLE receiving option for Cam Newton. He has to show he has learned to use his size to make up for any lack of quickness. So he doesn't have to be Michael Thomas or AJ Green. He needs to be Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, or Deon Branch. Guys who will be where they are supposed be and catch the ball.....most of the time.
d, Devin Asiasi- TE's have had a key role in every SB team except the first one (though Wiggy came up big in the playoffs) - If we do have a rookie that is good enough to have a real impact on this team, it needs to be Asiasi - In HIS rookie year, Gronk only had 545 receiving yds, but he had 10 TD's If Asiasi had similar receiving yds and even just half Gronk's rookie TD production I'd call it a win. We shall see.
Finally to have any real success. Or at least the kind of success we've come to expect. We need to be relatively healthy. If there is one Achilles Heal of this team is the usual experienced, quality depth. Unfortunately looking over at the depth of this team, too much of our depth is made up of rookies or relatively inexperienced players, so good health will be key to this team.
BTW- another one of those great unknowns of this team has got to be special teams. Anyone know who the kicker is going to be? My God, when have we had to ask THAT question so close to the season. Think about it. For 20 years we've had 2 guys who were among the best kickers in the league. Now its a mystery. Likely to be Folk, I guess, but who knows. Of course having an 80% field goal kicker is what we've been used to the last 2 decades, but I'd settle for 75% this season. As to the rest of the ST's, I worry less about it as the NFL is their "wisdom" has pretty much devalued the overall kicking game by legislating away in the guise of "safety" making it almost impossible to block a FG, or run back KO's or punts. Bill is still as ST's coach at heart, so I have confidence he'll make our ST's among the league's best (at least the coverage and punt teams.
)So those are MY idle thoughts as we go into the start of the 2020 season. I'm really looking forward to seeing how well or poorly the quality of execution is. I didn't catch any of the KC - Houston game, though it sounds like KC dominated the last 3 quarters. AAAAAAND we're off.
