patsacolachick said:
Sorry, but Carson Palmer is NOT playing at the level Peyton is playing at right now, no way. It is going to be very, very tough next week, what happened in years past means nothing right now.
I agree, Palmer is not playing up to Manning's level, even though he did play tremendously the week before against the Steelers (which everyone forgets now that Cincy has started to tank a bit). That Bengals offence can be just as scary as the Colts when firing on all cylanders, and until the Bengals played the Pats they were. Since then, the team has derailed, but don't forget what started the skid, and fantastic defensive performance by the Pats.
The point is, Belichick and the Pats coaching staff have shown that when the Pats have the right personnel they know how to scheme well against the Colts. That is how the past IS important in analyzing the upcoming game. The Pats have the personnel to scheme against the Colts this year (and I think the Bengals game shows that best, though the rest of the games should show that as well).
As for the Broncos defense, I think the past has shown that Shanahan does well shutting down the Patriots. There are things he does that confuse Brady and shut down the running games. Miami gives him the same problems. I can't explain why, I just know that Brady and the Pats always look confused and a step behind against the Broncos.
I also know that as good as they play the Pats, the Broncos always roll over against Indy. Its a matchup problem, the Colts match up well against the Broncos, which is why their vaunted defense got torched on Sunday. This will not happened against the Pats, because they have always matched up well against the Colts when they have the right personnel.
Does this mean the game will be easy? No. I think the Pats can win soundly if they have the personnel and scheme the way they know how (Personnel may be a problem if they get more injuries against Minnesota). Also, if the Pats have defensive breakdowns against Minnesota, I will then be seriously concerned about whether they can scheme against the Colts, and I will become seriously worried about the game. But if teh Pats play tough tonight and play defense the way they know how, I will feel confident they can do the same against Indy. However, even when they have done this is the past, Manning has made it interesting at times, and close, and he may very well do so again.
But the Colts have serious defensive deficiencies, and the Pats greatest offensive strength (running the ball) plays right into that. Which means that the Pats will probably put up a lot of points. The defense will slow Manning and the Colts just enough to keep them coming from behind all day, and I doubt they make it all that close in the end. That is why I think the Pats will win soundly.
I also don't buy that Manning has turned the corner yet. Does everyone forget he has won games like the Broncos game in the past, and has looked god like on the field before this. He always wins these games. He never wins them in the playoffs though, and until he does, he is still a loser in my eyes. They thought they got over the Patriots hump last year, just to get outplayed by the Steelers in the playoffs. They had their best team last year (this year's defense is much worse) and the Colts still faltered, and a lot of that is on Manning. Manning has proved nothing to me and the thing I hate most is undeserved praise. Manning gets boat loads of it, and nothing irritates me more.
Manning has played a ton of great games (all in the regular season) and he is the best QB in the league save Brady. But he is not a clutch player, he gets confused against certain defenses (like the Pats and Steelers) and then places the blame on everyone else when they lose. I think the root cause is the fact he overthinks and over-prepares, and this especially kills him in big games. These are serious flaws and he has done nothing this year to dispell my belief that these are fatal flaws. When he has the Lombardi pearched soundly over his head, I'll tip my cap and say well done, and I won't get so annoyed at the million Manning commercials, or even the arguments that he is the best QB in the league (he may very well be if he does win). But he has not shown he can get over those flaws yet, and after last year, when he had his best shot, I don't think he can. He is going to come to the downturn of his career soon, and the Colts don't look like they are improving this year. Can he win like Elway did on the downside of his career with a great all around team, when he isn't trying to micro manage everything, yes, its very possible. But with Dungy and Polian, I don't see that happening. We'll see.
But don't praise this guy to the sky, or think anything has really changed. We'll only know that come playoff time. Until then, he'll have his good games as he always does and everyone will think he has turned the corner (as they always think he has) and Brady and the Pats will quietly go about their business and win another Super Bowl (at least I hope so).