How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally

[moosekill]

Additionally, the draft changed greatly a couple of years ago with the new 1st round rookie salary stuff. Before, teams were paying huge premiums to sign their first round draft picks. This greatly increased the risk of drafting these high first round players. Not only did you risk making a bad pick, you also risked salary cap hell for doing it. Now with the new structure in place, the huge financial penalty is removed, thus making those first rounders much more valuable. I always figured BB was one of the first coaches to get that, and see the huge benefits of trading down. Since that change, the Patriots drafting down and out of the first round has greatly diminished.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Basically the NFL Draft is one big crap shoot.

That doesn't mean coaches/GMs shouldn't do their best to get the players they think fits best into their system - plenty of guys have been MORE than worth trading up for.

It just means that overall, quantity beats quality when it comes to draft order. Belichick may not have many "wins" as some teams have had in the draft itself, but he has a much better than average track record with UDFAs - illustrating the quantity theory, and affirming Belichick's general high ability to judge which players fit into "his" team concept

 

[PatsFanInVa]

What's truly astounding to me is that, league-wide, they don't ignore economics. They follow the laws of behavioral economics: There's a steep discount rate to a 2015 draft pick in 2014. In other words, it's just standard in the NFL that having a pick this year is better than next year -- even in years where next year's draft crop is expected to be better.