How Mike Vrabel wants to use analytics as Patriots head coach

[Ian]

Here's the full set of quotes from the transcript, he had some good stuff and I agree, super interesting:

TRANSCRIPT: Mike Vrabel's Appearance on WEEI On Tuesday 1/14/25 | PatsFans.com

Here's what Mike Vrabel had to say during an appearance on The Greg Hill Show on WEEI for Tuesday, January 14, 2025.

www.patsfans.com

Was that another thing when it came to Tennessee? I know you probably don’t want to dwell on the past, but just to clear up all this stuff. Was that another thing, too, where you disagreed with the analytics guys? You went for two that game at Miami or whatever, and they were all butt-hurt about it. Was that an issue?

“The game we won?”

Yeah. Where are you on analytics?

“High. I’m not sure where you get your information at. The analytics, we want to use as much information as we can to make great informed decisions in real time with real people. Things change. The weather, the backups, who you have in the game, how the defense is playing, how their offense is playing, have you stopped them? We’ll always try to use that information and excited to get with our staff here to see what they’ve done, whether that’s in acquiring players.”

“I look at analytics and I look at it in three phases. One, it’s in player acquisition. How do you apply analytics and the numbers and the data, play speed, estimated play speed, all these different things that you can use to evaluate players. That’s one area that we’re going to try to use it. The other one is in health and safety. How do we manage our players? What’s the workload? What’s their speeds? How often do they get to 90% of their max speed? You see all these numbers come out of the game.”

“Let’s say a player’s max speed is 20 miles per hour. Well, then we feel like at least one time between games, you should go 90% for a certain distance. You should run 18 miles per hour for X amount of distance. If you’re a gunner or a receiver or a player that does that. Like, we can see what they do in the game, and we want to make sure that they’re recreating that at least once during the season or once during the week. Then how we track player load management, how we construct practice, all these things that we’re going to use the data. Then the final piece of analytics is game management and risk ratio of going for it and all those different scenarios that you look at throughout the game. Those are the three buckets that, obviously, we’re going to always try to use analytics and then make a decision.”

 

[PP2]

Whatever these nerds are going to spin out inevitably neglects what the athletes themselves recognize on the field. Even the guy who knew more about it than anyone (Belichick) was often focused on nitty-gritty details which could never actually help the players on the field.

That's patently false.

Let me just give you one of a thousand of many of those "nitty gritty details." One is that BB had whoever was his OC avoid calling a sideline play to the weakside when the offense was facing the lighthouse end of the stadium (north) in late afternoon games because the sun would just get in the receiver's eyes.

 

[Clonamery]

That's patently false.

Let me just give you one of a thousand of many of those "nitty gritty details." One is that BB had whoever was his OC avoid calling a sideline play to the weakside when the offense was facing the lighthouse end of the stadium (north) in late afternoon games because the sun would just get in the receiver's eyes.

Ernie said plenty to Jules on his podcast for us to have an idea what went on.

 

[TomPatriot]

Did BB find what he was looking for???.. N'Keal Harry, joeuan Williams, Duke dawsa, Cyrus Jones.. Tyqua..

Jordan Richards, but he was so slow he couldn’t find him.

 

[TomPatriot]

Here's the full set of quotes from the transcript, he had some good stuff and I agree, super interesting:

TRANSCRIPT: Mike Vrabel's Appearance on WEEI On Tuesday 1/14/25 | PatsFans.com

Here's what Mike Vrabel had to say during an appearance on The Greg Hill Show on WEEI for Tuesday, January 14, 2025.

www.patsfans.com

Was that another thing when it came to Tennessee? I know you probably don’t want to dwell on the past, but just to clear up all this stuff. Was that another thing, too, where you disagreed with the analytics guys? You went for two that game at Miami or whatever, and they were all butt-hurt about it. Was that an issue?

“The game we won?”

Yeah. Where are you on analytics?

“High. I’m not sure where you get your information at. The analytics, we want to use as much information as we can to make great informed decisions in real time with real people. Things change. The weather, the backups, who you have in the game, how the defense is playing, how their offense is playing, have you stopped them? We’ll always try to use that information and excited to get with our staff here to see what they’ve done, whether that’s in acquiring players.”

“I look at analytics and I look at it in three phases. One, it’s in player acquisition. How do you apply analytics and the numbers and the data, play speed, estimated play speed, all these different things that you can use to evaluate players. That’s one area that we’re going to try to use it. The other one is in health and safety. How do we manage our players? What’s the workload? What’s their speeds? How often do they get to 90% of their max speed? You see all these numbers come out of the game.”

“Let’s say a player’s max speed is 20 miles per hour. Well, then we feel like at least one time between games, you should go 90% for a certain distance. You should run 18 miles per hour for X amount of distance. If you’re a gunner or a receiver or a player that does that. Like, we can see what they do in the game, and we want to make sure that they’re recreating that at least once during the season or once during the week. Then how we track player load management, how we construct practice, all these things that we’re going to use the data. Then the final piece of analytics is game management and risk ratio of going for it and all those different scenarios that you look at throughout the game. Those are the three buckets that, obviously, we’re going to always try to use analytics and then make a decision.”

I wonder if analytics is the reason Vrabel went to Cleveland.

 

[upstater1]

That's patently false.

Let me just give you one of a thousand of many of those "nitty gritty details." One is that BB had whoever was his OC avoid calling a sideline play to the weakside when the offense was facing the lighthouse end of the stadium (north) in late afternoon games because the sun would just get in the receiver's eyes.

Belichick has given dozens of examples that underscore the point I'm making.

I can name several of them off the top of my head.

For instance, reading the play by paying attention to the DEs stance and first move after hiking the ball.

Belichick studied it with great accuracy, and he taught it for years. If this + this happens, then this is going to happen.

It took Tom Brady to tell him that no one pays attention to that and he'd never be looking there in the first place, and that all of Belichick's efforts in this regard (no matter how accurate the predictive/analytical element was) were useless.

So Belichick said, because he wasn't a QB and didn't know what Brady could see, he was going to chuck this part of his preparations (which, again, were highly accurate analytically) and never teach that "read" ever again.

It was a waste of time

 

[Wozzy]

People who think there's some esoteric math that's going to allow for only smart football decisions to be made are deluding themselves. Ultimately it comes down to people who have good football smarts and instincts versus those who don't. No math nerd is going to discover the secret sauce to better football, it's not that deep.

 

[signbabybrady]

People who think there's some esoteric math that's going to allow for only smart football decisions to be made are deluding themselves. Ultimately it comes down to people who have good football smarts and instincts versus those who don't. No math nerd is going to discover the secret sauce to better football, it's not that deep.

 

[Clonamery]

HOF nerd.

 

[Wozzy]

Like I said, football instincts that existed generations before the term “analytics” existed in football.

 

[Clonamery]

Like I said, football instincts that existed generations before the term “analytics” existed in football.

And before College...

 

[reflexblue]

Jordan Richards, but he was so slow he couldn’t find him.

It definitely wasn't analytics that got him drafted.

 

[Huckleberry1]

They still meet the definition of analytics. The difference today are the advanced stats/next gen stats that derived via formula. The other new thing is to use algorithms to make determinations based on underlying data, including traditional measurements. If your statement about BB hating analytics is specific to the new school metrics and associated hype, we are on the same page.

I think that’s where people are talking past each other. Belichick always employed the metrics he valued, but never had any use for the advanced metrics that places like PFF have turned into analytics for every team in football. I think that’s why their analytics department under Belichick was so bare bones, as it amounted to Ernie Adams, who did a great job, but now they need to take analytics to the same level as the rest of the league, if for no other reason than to not be behind the curve.

 

[Huckleberry1]

It definitely wasn't analytics that got him drafted.

What got Richard’s drafted was Belichick’s penchant for team captains who contributed on special teams. That paid off in terms of having high character teams, and always having the various roles completely covered, but it cost them in turns of overall athletic ability, as he frequently passed on better athletes for better character.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

I think that’s where people are talking past each other. Belichick always employed the metrics he valued, but never had any use for the advanced metrics that places like PFF have turned into analytics for every team in football. I think that’s why their analytics department under Belichick was so bare bones, as it amounted to Ernie Adams, who did a great job, but now they need to take analytics to the same level as the rest of the league, if for no other reason than to not be behind the curve.

I agree that people have different definitions for what qualifies as analytics and their use. As you say, all NFL teams use analytics in some form or fashion. It is nice to have a coach who is committed to finding any possible advantage. My impression is that Mayo made no effort to utilize analytics which is another example that he did not have any sort of methodology for making decisions and just ran by the seat of his pants.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

What got Richard’s drafted was Belichick’s penchant for team captains who contributed on special teams. That paid off in terms of having high character teams, and always having the various roles completely covered, but it cost them in turns of overall athletic ability, as he frequently passed on better athletes for better character.

The team was very open about placing more importance on drafting players with leadership ability after the 2009 snow gate season. That strategy helped build the teams that won super bowls, it also meant drafting a number of players who were not physically talented enough to succeed in the NFL.

 

[Wozzy]

Trends have existed forever, scouting your opponent for tells has existed forever.

If mathematics could make a bad team good, every team would be using the same formula and we wouldn't see these young analytics heavy coaches making a stupid decision to eschew field goal points and lose games by a couple points almost weekly. Nothing will replace football smarts and in-game instincts. There's a time to go for it on fourth down, momentum and instincts matter more than what the math nerds upstairs are saying.

Math nerds were never needed by the best scouts in history to find great players. There's plenty of data via pro days and the combine, there's plenty of college film to watch. Math is overrated, I'm sure it matters more in baseball, but it's probably overrated there as well. There is no secret sauce, you're either smart about football or you're not.