How Many QB's Will Be Drafted In The First 16 Picks?

[mgteich]

How many QB's in the first 16 picks?

I think that the answer will be 5 by pick 12. I just can't see CHI, WAS, NE, MIN or DEN passing on a QB. I saw one mock where MIN trades up to 4 or 5 and then DEN refuses to risk missing Penix and drafts him at 8.

I think that the big questions are the order, especially where Nix is picked. Once the blue chippers are thought to be gone, I could see someone moving up for Nix.

 

[Love The Drake]

I think we will see 4 QBs out of the first 7 picks

Williams, Daniel’s, Maye, Harrison JR, Nabors, McCarthy, Alt

 

[archstanton543]

 

[VJCPatriot]

I bet we could see as many as 5 QB's taken in the first round. Maybe even in the top 16. This is the 'golden generation' and teams are going to take their shots. There are even a couple of QBs who could be taken in the 2nd round who might end up working out according to same scouts. Obviously not all of these guys will work out but the consensus is that this is the year to go get your QB. 2025 is going to be slim pickings in comparison.

 

[mgteich]

I think we will see 4 QBs out of the first 7 picks

Williams, Daniel’s, Maye, Harrison JR, Nabors, McCarthy, Alt

Presume that MIN has traded up into the top 7 for the 4th QB (it could be DEN instead)

THEN ANY OF THESE PICKS COULD BE PENIX OR NIX (looking for their 2025 starter)
6 NYG (could trade down and pick their 2025 QB; they are stuck for 2024)
8 AZ
9 CHI could trade its pick to someone who wanted a QB (lots of teams could be interested given the fear of a poor 2025 QB class.
12 DEN if they haven't traded up
13 LV

 

[jmt57]

The fact that the 2025 draft class is currently considered to be weak at QB could create a situation where teams reach for QBs in next week's draft - even more so than happens in a typical draft.


Assuming the Patriots do draft a QB at #3, then a run on QBs would be good for the Pats. That would mean there would be that many fewer OTs (or WRs) being selected between pick #3 and pick #34 - ie, a better OT/WR available for their second pick.

 

[mgteich]

The fact that the 2025 draft class is currently considered to be weak at QB could create a situation where teams reach for QBs in next week's draft - even more so than happens in a typical draft.


Assuming the Patriots do draft a QB at #3, then a run on QBs would be good for the Pats. That would mean there would be that many fewer OTs (or WRs) being selected between pick #3 and pick #34 - ie, a better OT/WR available for their second pick.

This is true only if you believe McCarthy, Penix, and Nix would otherwise be chosen outside of the first round. Given the ness for QB, I don't see that this ever would have been the case. Whether they are all picked 8 or by 28 doesn't affect the number of OT's available at 34.

The question for the patriots will be the same. Should they trade up for a better chance for a stud LT, or not.

 

[jimnance]

This entire qb class is extremely overrated.
Yes, 2025's class is even worse.
Worst thing a qb-needy team can do is get panic-stricken.
I still think take best player available.
None of these qbs inspire confidence in me except Daniels and he's got plenty of question marks, too.
We could be looking at a repeat of the putrid Mac Jones et al draft. 4 busts and one guy who has greatly underperformed.
I still say draft MHJ

 

[Wozzy]

4

People overrate QB’s every year…

 

[mgteich]

4

People overrate QB’s every year…

Who are these "people"?

And what does "over-rate" mean?
==============
OK, 4 will be very likely be picked in the top 6, almost certainly in the top 8. So, let's say the 4 QB's, 3 WR's and Alt are gone at 8.
==========
MY CONCLUSION: After 8, Penix and Nix would be top trade targets for DEN and LV, and It is most unlikely that Penix would be there at 14.
=================
For example, if a team sees a potential starter at 11, 12 or 13, should they pick him, or just hope that they find a better potential starter in the next couple of years? Or should I simply insist that a potential starter is worth more than pick 13, and that I am better off without a starting QB, since I can fill a team need at 13 (even if the player isn't a blue-chip players).

If we trade down, would it really be right to pass on Penix and Nix in order to sign whatever LT is left at 11? Rattler. really? What makes anyone think that we would get him, although I suppose that we could get him at 34.

 

[Wozzy]

Who are these "people"?

And what does "over-rate" mean?
==============
OK, 4 will be very likely be picked in the top 6, almost certainly in the top 8. So, let's say the 4 QB's, 3 WR's and Alt are gone at 8.
==========
MY CONCLUSION: After 8, Penix and Nix would be top trade targets for DEN and LV, and It is most unlikely that Penix would be there at 14.
=================
For example, if a team sees a potential starter at 11, 12 or 13, should they pick him, or just hope that they find a better potential starter in the next couple of years? Or should I simply insist that a potential starter is worth more than pick 13, and that I am better off without a starting QB, since I can fill a team need at 13 (even if the player isn't a blue-chip players).

If we trade down, would it really be right to pass on Penix and Nix in order to sign whatever LT is left at 11? Rattler. really? What makes anyone think that we would get him, although I suppose that we could get him at 34.

Every year we have people suggesting way more teams will take QB’s than good QB prospects are available, or even teams who actually think they need a QB.

As far as when Penix or Nix will go, let’s see. If I said this time last year the Patriots were going to trade back a couple spots and still get the best CB in the draft Christian Gonzalez people would say “no way.”

There are only 32 teams, every player can’t be gone, not everyone is taking a QB just because it’s “the most important position.”

 

[mgteich]

Every year we have people suggesting way more teams will take QB’s than good QB prospects are available, or even teams who actually think they need a QB.

As far as when Penix or Nix will go, let’s see. If I said this time last year the Patriots were going to trade back a couple spots and still get the best CB in the draft Christian Gonzalez people would say “no way.”

There are only 32 teams, every player can’t be gone, not everyone is taking a QB just because it’s “the most important position.”

Gonzales is not relevant.
================
My POINT is that I believe that anyone whose floor is being an average starter in the NFL is deserving of a first round pick. I believe that quarterbacks are that valuable. We are NOT, are NOT even discussing whether a QB should be picked before the blue chippers, usually gone in the top 10 or so.

My prediction is straightforward. I think that DEN will likely pick a QB at 12, if not earlier. I will be shocked if Penix or Nix are not picked before some those in the 9-16 range, after the top 4 QB's, 3 WR's and Alt. I said pick 16, allowing for 7 additional non-QB's plus the 5th QB.

 

[Triumph]

If the pick can't cut it in the NFL then he is not a QB.

So, 1 maybe 2 actual NFL QBs come from this draft.