Keep in mind when evaluating Mac that the pats were 2nd in the NFL with 24 rushing TDs. They scored 48 offensive TDs.
They were 11th in yards per play, 6th in PPG & 10th in 3rd down pct. They had an above average offense with Meyers, Bourne & Henry as their top 3 pass catchers.
I’m not sure there is more to squeeze out of this offense with the current personnel. Mac’s biggest improvement will depend on whether they get a #1 option in the passing game.
I’m not sure defenses are adjusting to Mac or their adjusting to the pats offense. Why wouldn’t you play cover 1 against this personnel? He’s completed multiple go routes to Meyers. I think he’s shown the ability to make those throws.
He had a pretty good rookie season all things considered. There were a good chunk of rookie mistakes but he showed the ability to command an offense & high level accuracy. Now it’s on him to improve & the front office to get someone defenses have to pay extra attention to in the passing game.
What I said in a different thread. Mac had a pretty good rookie year & the pats offense got the most out of what they had from their personnel. They had a top 10 offense with no difference maker at WR or TE.
They arguably have everything else offensively. They have a pretty good OL, talented RBs, a #2 WR, a #3 WR & a red zone threat at TE. A #1 option would slot everyone else in to their role IMO.
Here are some young QBs that benefitted from an improvement in their supporting cast after their rookie season:
Joe Burrow 89.8 passer rating to 108.3 - Ja'Marr Chase
Kyler Murray 87.4 to 94.3 - Deandre Hopkins
Josh Allen 85.3 to 107.2 - Stefon Diggs
Mac doesn't have a strong arm. He doesn't have a weak arm. Watch Heinecke, Tua or any of the recent aging QBs such as Big Ben or Rivers for a weak arm. Any slight improvement in arm strength will be what Mac needs to be a franchise QB.
I think fans should be relatively confident. 7 makes sense. I understand the concerns that Mac will never be able to drive a 20+ yard pass with velocity like Herbert, Allen or Tom can but there are successful franchise QBs that are touch passers. Dak is probably the best comparison for his game right now. They both throw with anticipation, are accurate & have underrated mobility (Dak was more of a runner before injury).
Regardless how much Mac improves the pats have to acquire a #1 WR in the draft or FA if they want him to improve significantly IMO.