How Can We Judge Whether Our Receivers Are Any Good?

[Ring 6]

at the end of the day who cares about the semantics. receiver vs. pass catcher. Juju was not a #1 target which at the end of the day is all he should've been here with the patriots.

maybe he does better next to a #1 receiver we draft with a new QB prospect. But doesn't change the fact that he is who he is. which is not a #1 target. teams are not game planning for Juju.

You appear to care about semantics because you are moving the goalposts.

The ultimate argument that someone else was having was needing top WRs to win.
Unless you consider JJSS a top WR then he is proof that is not correct.

 

[RIpats88]

Isn't this two separate arguments though?

No one is disputing the fact that the team would be better with competent QB play. Whether that is above .500 is up for debate but they certainly are not 2-11

The thread is trying to make the argument that we can't evaluate the receiving talent because of the QB play.

Both are totally separate arguments and have nothing to do with the other.

If the problem with the qb can be summarized as:

He is slow to read and react, missing windows where receivers are open, hesitant to throw the ball more than 5 yards down the field, worries more about the rush than making a play and doesn’t throw to the open receiver his progressions said he should have, then chokes and under throws east TDs for picks.
All of which is dead on.

How can you judge the receivers?

Or better put, hie ARE you? What criteria are you using to determine they aren’t doing their job but the qb isn’t delivering?

The only way I know is to watch the take and the tape tells me there are plays that should be made but 10 isn’t making them.
[/QUOTE]

well I know Douglas/Bourne are getting open and making plays catching the ball. and my eye test tells me anytime Juju/Parker are catching the ball they have a guy draped all over them.

and I also trust the analysts who watch the tape who say these guys are not getting open or getting separation. and that Thornton cant run a route to save his life and has also been benched by Bill multiple times as a healthy scratch.

I mean giardi said "stink stank stunk" before we even know how horrible Mac would be.

 

[RIpats88]

You appear to care about semantics because you are moving the goalposts.

The ultimate argument that someone else was having was needing top WRs to win.
Unless you consider JJSS a top WR then he is proof that is not correct.

okay, you don't need a top WR to win. but you need a top "receiving talent" does that make you feel better? its semantics to argue whether someone is a WR or a TE when the result is the same. having an elite receiver who can get open at will and demands elite coverage.

id be happy if we had an elite Tight end like kelce or gronk as well...no one said it had to be a wide receiver. its just more likely to have an elite wide receiver.

and right now we have no one who can hold eithers jock straps..

 

[Ring 6]

If the problem with the qb can be summarized as:

He is slow to read and react, missing windows where receivers are open, hesitant to throw the ball more than 5 yards down the field, worries more about the rush than making a play and doesn’t throw to the open receiver his progressions said he should have, then chokes and under throws east TDs for picks.
All of which is dead on.

How can you judge the receivers?

Or better put, hie ARE you? What criteria are you using to determine they aren’t doing their job but the qb isn’t delivering?

The only way I know is to watch the take and the tape tells me there are plays that should be made but 10 isn’t making them.

well I know Douglas/Bourne are getting open and making plays catching the ball. and my eye test tells me anytime Juju/Parker are catching the ball they have a guy draped all over them.

and I also trust the analysts who watch the tape who say these guys are not getting open or getting separation. and that Thornton cant run a route to save his life and has also been benched by Bill multiple times as a healthy scratch.

I mean giardi said "stink stank stunk" before we even know how horrible Mac would be.
[/QUOTE]
Well rather than just rely on what others say, I look for myself.

First, “every time they catch a pass they have a guy draped all over them” is not an accurate statement.
However the only time 10 throws to them are on routes that don’t allow “separation”. A 5 yard slant against man will be tightly covered no matter who the WR or corner is. A 4 yard in on 3rd down will never be wide open.
There are many plays where receivers are open down the field and 10 doesn’t throw either because his reads are painfully slow or he is afraid to throw more than 5 yards.
How open do you exact to see targeted receivers if the QB won’t throw down the field? He is only thru ring to guys working in short areas and the defense is packing the short areas.

 

[RIpats88]

well I know Douglas/Bourne are getting open and making plays catching the ball. and my eye test tells me anytime Juju/Parker are catching the ball they have a guy draped all over them.

and I also trust the analysts who watch the tape who say these guys are not getting open or getting separation. and that Thornton cant run a route to save his life and has also been benched by Bill multiple times as a healthy scratch.

I mean giardi said "stink stank stunk" before we even know how horrible Mac would be.

Well rather than just rely on what others say, I look for myself.

First, “every time they catch a pass they have a guy draped all over them” is not an accurate statement.
However the only time 10 throws to them are on routes that don’t allow “separation”. A 5 yard slant against man will be tightly covered no matter who the WR or corner is. A 4 yard in on 3rd down will never be wide open.
There are many plays where receivers are open down the field and 10 doesn’t throw either because his reads are painfully slow or he is afraid to throw more than 5 yards.
How open do you exact to see targeted receivers if the QB won’t throw down the field? He is only thru ring to guys working in short areas and the defense is packing the short areas.
[/QUOTE]

So why have our receivers had poor separation since 2019 consistently? That's been with Brady, cam Newton and now Mac jones.

At some point it's the roster talent. Was it all Brady in 2019? Holding back Ben Watson and sanu!

It's not to say Mac hasn't been bad. But
Parker was never known to be a guy who gets huge separation. And juju is a short yardage guy with a bum knee.

I'm not sure what we are arguing here. That they are actually good?

 

[Ring 6]

okay, you don't need a top WR to win. but you need a top "receiving talent" does that make you feel better? its semantics to argue whether someone is a WR or a TE when the result is the same. having an elite receiver who can get open at will and demands elite coverage.

id be happy if we had an elite Tight end like kelce or gronk as well...no one said it had to be a wide receiver. its just more likely to have an elite wide receiver.

and right now we have no one who can hold eithers jock straps..

It’s a chicken/egg argument.
Are receivers “elite” because of the QB or is the qb “elite” because of the receivers?
It hits hand in hand. If you have an effective passing game they make each other look better.
Was Welker elite, or was in because of Brady? Gronk? Edelman?

It’s vey easy for a receiver to put up numbers in a well run offense with a good qb who executes the offense.
Pass plays in the NFL are designed to get a receiver open. Routes are run in combo and stress the coverage to get a receiver open. If you highlight one receiver as the primary target more often he is going to have better numbers. If you spread it out you aren’t a less effective offense.

Edelman didn’t suddenly get better when his production jumped, he suddenly became the #1 option on more plays.
Same with Kelce.

 

[Ring 6]

Well rather than just rely on what others say, I look for myself.

First, “every time they catch a pass they have a guy draped all over them” is not an accurate statement.
However the only time 10 throws to them are on routes that don’t allow “separation”. A 5 yard slant against man will be tightly covered no matter who the WR or corner is. A 4 yard in on 3rd down will never be wide open.
There are many plays where receivers are open down the field and 10 doesn’t throw either because his reads are painfully slow or he is afraid to throw more than 5 yards.
How open do you exact to see targeted receivers if the QB won’t throw down the field? He is only thru ring to guys working in short areas and the defense is packing the short areas.

So why have our receivers had poor separation since 2019 consistently? That's been with Brady, cam Newton and now Mac jones.

At some point it's the roster talent. Was it all Brady in 2019? Holding back Ben Watson and sanu!

It's not to say Mac hasn't been bad. But
Parker was never known to be a guy who gets huge separation. And juju is a short yardage guy with a bum knee.

I'm not sure what we are arguing here. That they are actually good?

Who says they have had “poor separation”?
How are you measuring that?

What do you think “separation” means.

Do you really think the NFL is about “hey receiver run away from that defender and get open”?

 

[RIpats88]

It’s a chicken/egg argument.
Are receivers “elite” because of the QB or is the qb “elite” because of the receivers?
It hits hand in hand. If you have an effective passing game they make each other look better.
Was Welker elite, or was in because of Brady? Gronk? Edelman?

It’s vey easy for a receiver to put up numbers in a well run offense with a good qb who executes the offense.
Pass plays in the NFL are designed to get a receiver open. Routes are run in combo and stress the coverage to get a receiver open. If you highlight one receiver as the primary target more often he is going to have better numbers. If you spread it out you aren’t a less effective offense.

Edelman didn’t suddenly get better when his production jumped, he suddenly became the #1 option on more plays.
Same with Kelce.

I think you are really undervaluing receivers. It's not a chicken or the egg because both can be true. I mean Moss was elite on Minnesota before Brady. Mike Evans has been a 1k per year receiver with and without brady.

Obviously you don't believe in defensive coverages. How someone like Hill or Gronk changes the way you defend which leaves other guys open. Other teams have said the Patriots are easy to defend because their receivers are JAGs

Explain Brady going from 25 yds in 2019 and looking on the decline to 40 in 2020 and looking reborn. His elite receivers helped him just as much as he helped them.

I mean do you believe Purdy is carrying the niners receivers? No they are talented

 

[Triumph]

Not everything is an either or proposition. Lowe can be horrible whether or not Jones is bad.

Same with our receivers. Jones being replaced with Zappe isn't going to make Thornton be an elite receiver or guys like lowe elite OL.

It's like half this board never watched a single NFL game except for the Brady Patriots sometimes.

The Corky apologists are still blaming the entire NE OL for his problems week in and week out. Look around the NFL. All QBs are under pressure constantly.

 

[Ring 6]

I think you are really undervaluing receivers. It's not a chicken or the egg because both can be true. I mean Moss was elite on Minnesota before Brady. Mike Evans has been a 1k per year receiver with and without brady.

Because they are primary targets. I mean yes better players produce better results but if you put another receiver in Mike Evans role and call the same plays he will produce.

Obviously you don't believe in defensive coverages. How someone like Hill or Gronk changes the way you defend which leaves other guys open.

]

Thats not really accurate. Defenses have to cover everyone in man and every area in zone. Different coverages are better/worse against different routes or different combinations.
Defenses focus on taking away the routes an offense favors, not covering some receiver and ignoring another.
With the patriots 10 won’t throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field and when he does he isn’t accurate. So the defense packs the short zones, weakening them down the field. Those routes get open no matter who us running them. The QB can’t get the ball to them.
A perfect example was the play vs the colts that was discussed at length here.
The colts showed cover2 presnap. They played cover 2. JJSS was running an in at the numbers. Anyone who knows anything about passing offense knows that is the route you want against cover 2 unless the S jumps it. The S didn’t. The play unfolded perfectly, 10 didn’t make the throw to the wide open juju and tripped over a DL laying on the ground.

Any WR is open running that route, but whether it’s moss or juju with 10 at QB it’s a sack and with a competant one it’s 20 yards.

Other teams have said the Patriots are easy to defend because their receivers are JAGs

No team has said that.

Explain Brady going from 25 yds in 2019 and looking on the decline to 40 in 2020 and looking reborn. His elite receivers helped him just as much as he helped them.

Brady was awful the second half of 2019. He could have had the 2007 team out there it wouldn’t have mattered. I always felt it was because of his elbow injury but given the tampering stuff, I think he may have mailed it in.

I mean do you believe Purdy is carrying the niners receivers? No they are talented

The 49ers have an effective offense with a QB who executes it. We would be miles better with Purdy and the 49er offense would be struggling with 10.
Purdy finds open receivers on time 10 doesn’t. It’s like color vs black and white. The way 10 plays qb literally gives his team no chance

 

[RIpats88]

Because they are primary targets. I mean yes better players produce better results but if you put another receiver in Mike Evans role and call the same plays he will produce.




Thats not really accurate. Defenses have to cover everyone in man and every area in zone. Different coverages are better/worse against different routes or different combinations.
Defenses focus on taking away the routes an offense favors, not covering some receiver and ignoring another.
With the patriots 10 won’t throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field and when he does he isn’t accurate. So the defense packs the short zones, weakening them down the field. Those routes get open no matter who us running them. The QB can’t get the ball to them.
A perfect example was the play vs the colts that was discussed at length here.
The colts showed cover2 presnap. They played cover 2. JJSS was running an in at the numbers. Anyone who knows anything about passing offense knows that is the route you want against cover 2 unless the S jumps it. The S didn’t. The play unfolded perfectly, 10 didn’t make the throw to the wide open juju and tripped over a DL laying on the ground.

Any WR is open running that route, but whether it’s moss or juju with 10 at QB it’s a sack and with a competant one it’s 20 yards.

No team has said that.

Brady was awful the second half of 2019. He could have had the 2007 team out there it wouldn’t have mattered. I always felt it was because of his elbow injury but given the tampering stuff, I think he may have mailed it in.

The 49ers have an effective offense with a QB who executes it. We would be miles better with Purdy and the 49er offense would be struggling with 10.
Purdy finds open receivers on time 10 doesn’t. It’s like color vs black and white. The way 10 plays qb literally gives his team no chance

As soon as you said you can have anyone run the same routes as Mike Evans and they will produce I stopped reading.

If that's the case there would never be busts in the NFL. That's the worst take I've ever read.

You really believe juju or moss are getting open on the same play and it makes no difference who is running the route and their talent level?

 

[RIpats88]

The Corky apologists are still blaming the entire NE OL for his problems week in and week out. Look around the NFL. All QBs are under pressure constantly.

Stating that you can still evaluate talent whether or not the QB is good is not defending "corky"

It's basic NFL knowledge. This idea that teams can't evaluate talent on their team unless they have a stud QB is the most ridiculous take I've read on this board yet.

Pretty sure irrespective of how poorly or great the QB plays the coaches can tell if a OL is giving up pressure or a WR can get open.

It's not one big crapshoot. There's probably only 10-15 teams with ok QBs. You telling me none of those other teams can evaluate their talent unless they get a top 15 QB?

 

[Ring 6]

As soon as you said you can have anyone run the same routes as Mike Evans and they will produce I stopped reading.

If that's the case there would never be busts in the NFL. That's the worst take I've ever read.

You really believe juju or moss are getting open on the same play and it makes no difference who is running the route and their talent level?

Yes any capable receiver will produce if given plays as the primary target. That doesn’t mean every player is the same, but the majority of “getting open” is the play design. Of course there are plays that some players can make an others can’t but a majority of them just require competence. MANY receivers put up big numbers when they are the primary target and much less when they aren’t.

On the play I described any nfl receiver pretty much ever would have been open. The coverage literally left a whole in the zone exactly where the route took him.

 

[Salsalife]

It's a case of Brady derange Syndrome. We seen him at it's highest level of play. Now we can only judge by this template. Brady made the receivers look like all pro's.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Thornton showed his speed today, but he also showed he can't catch.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

I read the title and my jaw dropped. Your QB doesn't change how crisply you run your routes. It doesn't change how you shake off defenders. In short, the QB doesn't do the receiver's job before the throw. The QB's job is to throw to the open man in a spot where only the receiver can make a play. If the guy isn't open, no QB is getting him the ball.

Evaluating an NFL QB has always been about how well he can execute the offense. In the NFL, compared to college, the reads have to be quicker, the accuracy greater. Why? Look at some of the top players in college over the years that have flamed out in the NFL. When your guys are wide open because you have talent stacked on one team, the QB can be slower to process his reads because the OL is creating a solid pocket. The QB doesn't have to be as accurate because sheer athletic ability gets his WRs open. The QB can take off and run because his athletic ability is greater than his competition.

Heading to the NFL, most of that disappears. The defenders are all fast and strong. Even some of our most miserable NFL defenders were, at one time, heralded college athletes. So even the best OLs can't protect the QB as long, speeding up their reads and placement decisions. WRs have to be precise in their routes, have subtle movements to throw defenders offline, and create separation. Running QBs are getting hit more often.

This further exacerbates the need to look for QBs who can make quick reads and know how to cycle through their progressions. In college, their elite WRs are just open almost immediately, eliminating the need for checkdowns, which are vital in the pro game.

It also explains why so many top WRs fail to make an impact and you end up with non-first rounders making an impact. They tend to be the guys who don't blow by people, but who run great routes. Look at our history of drafting WRs in the BB era. The impact guys are never first rounders or the speed guys. Branch, Brown, Edelman... even guys like Welker fit that profile.

In short, WRs absolutely can be evaluated absent solid QB play

 

[MahomestoKelce]

The lack of a reliable 3rd down back in the passing game has killed the Pats in the last few years. Think about all those game winning drives, Redmon, Faulk, Vereen, White, Dion Lewis, and Rex Burkhead to name most of them. Redmon, Vereen and White, the Pats don't win those SBs without them.

Now, nothing, no 3rd down back, nobody that can block and leak out and pick up that critical 3rd down.

Now no slot receiver, Brown, Welker, Edelman, now nothing!

The Pats have never been an outside WR offense, only Branch and Moss stand out during that time.

Now the Pats find themselves without a QB too. I am not sold on either Williams or Maye. I say take the top 3 pick and draft Harrison JR. Lets see what having a elite WR does for this offense. Adding Williams or Maye to this talentless team with an iffy O-line will not bring the Pats out of the malaise they find themselves in.

Pick a Jimmy G in the off season, trade Mac for a bag of magic beans, and then spend the rest of the draft on offensive lineman and actual LBs (not Div 4 hybrid guys).

He will be injured for half the season anyways. All that money tied up in a guy who, quite frankly, doesn't go above and beyond to play.That was the frustration the last time he was in NE.

And it's rare that QB's come out who are fully bust proof. Maybe Elway and Manning. That's it. Mahomes was looked at as a boom or bust guy. Allen had lots of detractors. Burrow had lots of cons. That doesn't mean you don't draft one.

 

[MahomestoKelce]

It's a case of Brady derange Syndrome. We seen him at it's highest level of play. Now we can only judge by this template. Brady made the receivers look like all pro's.

I think Gronk and Welker would have been very good players elsewhere. Gronk especially. Definitely not an All Pro though. He would have had a lesser QB throwing to him. And a TE can only do so much. I don't think Edelman would have done as well elsewhere. Amendola wasn't much before NE. Same for guys like Branch & Watson.

As for the discussions going on, I think a QB can make a receiver. And vice versa. Culpepper wouldn't be getting mvp votes in 04 without Moss. On the other side, guys like Laurent Robinson and Miles Austin got paydays because of Romo. They went elsewhere and stunk. Peyton Manning made Julius Thomas rich. Than the guy goes elsewhere and bombs. Brady made Branch better.

 

[Ring 6]

I read the title and my jaw dropped. Your QB doesn't change how crisply you run your routes. It doesn't change how you shake off defenders. In short, the QB doesn't do the receiver's job before the throw. The QB's job is to throw to the open man in a spot where only the receiver can make a play. If the guy isn't open, no QB is getting him the ball.

Evaluating an NFL QB has always been about how well he can execute the offense. In the NFL, compared to college, the reads have to be quicker, the accuracy greater. Why? Look at some of the top players in college over the years that have flamed out in the NFL. When your guys are wide open because you have talent stacked on one team, the QB can be slower to process his reads because the OL is creating a solid pocket. The QB doesn't have to be as accurate because sheer athletic ability gets his WRs open. The QB can take off and run because his athletic ability is greater than his competition.

Heading to the NFL, most of that disappears. The defenders are all fast and strong. Even some of our most miserable NFL defenders were, at one time, heralded college athletes. So even the best OLs can't protect the QB as long, speeding up their reads and placement decisions. WRs have to be precise in their routes, have subtle movements to throw defenders offline, and create separation. Running QBs are getting hit more often.

This further exacerbates the need to look for QBs who can make quick reads and know how to cycle through their progressions. In college, their elite WRs are just open almost immediately, eliminating the need for checkdowns, which are vital in the pro game.

It also explains why so many top WRs fail to make an impact and you end up with non-first rounders making an impact. They tend to be the guys who don't blow by people, but who run great routes. Look at our history of drafting WRs in the BB era. The impact guys are never first rounders or the speed guys. Branch, Brown, Edelman... even guys like Welker fit that profile.

In short, WRs absolutely can be evaluated absent solid QB play

Only if you look at film. You cannot tell how much the QB is holding back the receivers by production.

 

[Ring 6]

I think Gronk and Welker would have been very good players elsewhere. Gronk especially. Definitely not an All Pro though. He would have had a lesser QB throwing to him. And a TE can only do so much. I don't think Edelman would have done as well elsewhere. Amendola wasn't much before NE. Same for guys like Branch & Watson.

As for the discussions going on, I think a QB can make a receiver. And vice versa. Culpepper wouldn't be getting mvp votes in 04 without Moss. On the other side, guys like Laurent Robinson and Miles Austin got paydays because of Romo. They went elsewhere and stunk. Peyton Manning made Julius Thomas rich. Than the guy goes elsewhere and bombs. Brady made Branch better.

It’s not really the QB who makes the receiver better (aside from the tide raising all boats) but the opportunity to be the primary target.
Welker wouldn’t have produced as much as he did elsewhere because in this system he was the #1 read much of the time.