Home field in the NFL continues to be less of an advantage

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Home teams last year were 128-129-1. That was written off to the pandemic, but in reality a larger trend was already developing…in 2019, HFA was already decreasing. This year, with fans returning, home teams are 16-16. Point spreads for HFA have shrunk, over time, from 3 points to just 1 point.

Fans have returned to the stands, but home-field advantage still absent in the NFL

Last year, for the first time in NFL history, home teams had a losing record: Of the 256 games in the 2020 regular season, home teams won 127, lost 128, and one was tied.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

The decline of home-field advantage began before that pandemic-affected 2020 season. In 2019, before the pandemic, when the crowds were as loud as ever, home teams went just 132-123-1, the worst cumulative record for home teams since the advent of the 16-game schedule.

As is so often the case, the gambling community was among the first to notice the decline in home-field advantage. For decades, the rule of thumb was that home-field was worth about three points on the Vegas line. In the last couple years, that shifted to two points. It’s now around one point.

 

[Pape]

This is the end result of parity... outside of a few top heavy teams balanced out by the jete, the former browns, the jags and lions, everyone else is a mediocre 8-8-1ish type team...

 

[venecol]

This is the end result of parity... outside of a few top heavy teams balanced out by the jete, the former browns, the jags and lions, everyone else is a mediocre 8-8-1ish type team...

Except for teams with HOF coaches like Arians, this is true. Oops

 

[TheRainMaker]

This is what made watching your team on the road so much fun. That doesn’t really exist anymore.

I say it’s because the lack of stability in organizations, constant coaching changes and the inability to build competitive teams. I grew up in the 90’s and that was my favorite era. Remember when the AFC East was a gauntlet? Playing the Dolphins D in the heat wore teams out. Ditto with Tampa. Playing in domes was like playing on concrete. Seattle was extremely difficult to beat at home when they had the LOB. Denver wore teams out with the altitude and running game. Philly used to be a tough place to play. KC has always been really loud. GB frozen tundra. Gillette used to be known as a place for an automatic loss.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Denver still is a tough place to play. Even the crappy Bronco teams are tough to beat.