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Home teams last year were 128-129-1. That was written off to the pandemic, but in reality a larger trend was already developing…in 2019, HFA was already decreasing. This year, with fans returning, home teams are 16-16. Point spreads for HFA have shrunk, over time, from 3 points to just 1 point.
The decline of home-field advantage began before that pandemic-affected 2020 season. In 2019, before the pandemic, when the crowds were as loud as ever, home teams went just 132-123-1, the worst cumulative record for home teams since the advent of the 16-game schedule.
As is so often the case, the gambling community was among the first to notice the decline in home-field advantage. For decades, the rule of thumb was that home-field was worth about three points on the Vegas line. In the last couple years, that shifted to two points. It’s now around one point.
Fans have returned to the stands, but home-field advantage still absent in the NFL
Last year, for the first time in NFL history, home teams had a losing record: Of the 256 games in the 2020 regular season, home teams won 127, lost 128, and one was tied.
profootballtalk.nbcsports.com
The decline of home-field advantage began before that pandemic-affected 2020 season. In 2019, before the pandemic, when the crowds were as loud as ever, home teams went just 132-123-1, the worst cumulative record for home teams since the advent of the 16-game schedule.
As is so often the case, the gambling community was among the first to notice the decline in home-field advantage. For decades, the rule of thumb was that home-field was worth about three points on the Vegas line. In the last couple years, that shifted to two points. It’s now around one point.