Grading the Draft

[ctpatsfan77]

The Jimmy Johnson value charte? I have to disagree, I actually think it's MORE accurate now. Back in the days of obscene contracts for the top handful of players, I think it significantly overvalued those picks.

I think the problem is that teams haven't decided what the "new normal" is.

In any case, though, I think it goes out the window once you get down to the fifth or sixth round; I'd argue that the 3-for-1 trade was NOT a ripoff, even if it looks like one on the point scale.

 

[State]

That ST ace from Ohio State, seeing him interviewed and running his blazing 40 time, he sort of looks like Wes Welker, but a bigger, stronger, faster version.

As if he had swallowed a test tube of something like in the Captain America movie. Wes looks like the early Captain America, and then this Ebner guy comes out so that the female Pats fans want to touch his pecs.

I'm kind of blown away at Ebner's pro day performance. I know his flies down on STs and does an excellent job. I think the pick is awesome.

Does someone have the numbers again? His three-cone thingy was insane. Like Borat chasing after Pamela Anderson crazy.

 

[patchick]

I think the problem is that teams haven't decided what the "new normal" is.

In any case, though, I think it goes out the window once you get down to the fifth or sixth round; I'd argue that the 3-for-1 trade was NOT a ripoff, even if it looks like one on the point scale.

Agreed, the chart values bottom out late in the draft and become meaningless. E.g., the last pick in round 4 is "worth" about twice the last pick in round 5, but the last pick in round 6 is "worth" seven times the last pick in round 7. That's just silliness.

 

[State]

It ain't just the chart, there's a more important consideration. And that is Belichick in being very active in trading down undermines his potential value he can get in return. This draft shows me the law of diminishing returns for his doing so. He might need to think about manning up and staying where he is, rather than get hosed like he apparently did with his second round trade down.

Again, Mike Reiss's words need to be screamed from the rooftops here about the relative value the Patriots are offered in a trade down vis-a-vis another franchise's at a similar position:

[This is a tough one to figure out, as it doesn't appear the Patriots received good value in trading the 62nd overall pick for a third-rounder (90th) and fifth-rounder (163rd). A bit later in the draft, the Browns traded the 67th overall pick (3rd-rounder) for the 87th overall pick (3rd-rounder) and 120th overall pick (4th-rounder), which highlights how the Patriots got short-changed.

 

[patchick]

That ST ace from Ohio State, seeing him interviewed and running his blazing 40 time, he sort of looks like Wes Welker, but a bigger, stronger, faster version.

As if he had swallowed a test tube of something like in the Captain America movie. Wes looks like the early Captain America, and then this Ebner guy comes out so that the female Pats fans want to touch his pecs.

I'm kind of blown away at Ebner's pro day performance. I know his flies down on STs and does an excellent job. I think the pick is awesome.

Does someone have the numbers again? His three-cone thingy was insane. Like Borat chasing after Pamela Anderson crazy.

From the Billy Winn thread:

6'0" 202 4.53/2.64/1.56 23 39 10'08" 4.04 6.59

Remember a player a couple of years ago named Jameson Konz? He accomplished nothing of note in his college career at Kent State, then put up otherworldly numbers at his pro day, leading to a lot of fans and analysts fawning all over him.

If Ebner had played even semi-regularly at any position on offense or defense, his pro day performance would have made him a draft binky. Because he didn't, nobody outside the league even took note. Yet Ebner's ST skills are a lot more likely to translate to the NFL than Konz's non-skills on offense and defense (they had played him all over, trying to get his athleticism to translate to football). Plus with Ebner's lack of experience, there's always the remote chance that he can turn into something much more. A fun and worthwhile pick late in the draft, IMO.

 

[patsfaninpa]

One thing about Ebner. He'll make it to the practice squad until we figure out what to do with him. Many of our 5th and 6th rounders have been snapped up by other teams when we cut them. Thinking Lee Smith and Ted Larsen.

One thing about Tavon Wilson too. I'll admit I've never heard of him. Another thing. I don't even bother trying to look at and evaluate safeties on tv or youtube. That's the one position where you need the coach's tape. You have no idea what they are doing unless they get beat on a pass or miss a tackle. You can't see them on at least half of the plays. Any kid 6'0" 205lb who can run a 4.5 forty has the physical tools to play in the NFL. He's overcome a lot in his life. Guessing mental toughness is pretty good too. He played in The Big 10. Not the Patriot League. There were 42 SEC players drafted and 41 Big 10 players. I've been critical of the offenses in the Big 10. But, there are a lot of good athletes.

 

[Off The Grid]

Again, Mike Reiss's words need to be screamed from the rooftops here about the relative value the Patriots are offered in a trade down vis-a-vis another franchise's at a similar position:

Gah. PLEASE don't single out Reiss for what we all noticed...many of us, anyway.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It ain't just the chart, there's a more important consideration. And that is Belichick in being very active in trading down undermines his potential value he can get in return. This draft shows me the law of diminishing returns for his doing so. He might need to think about manning up and staying where he is, rather than get hosed like he apparently did with his second round trade down.

Again, Mike Reiss's words need to be screamed from the rooftops here about the relative value the Patriots are offered in a trade down vis-a-vis another franchise's at a similar position:

There are two problems with this logic.

(1) Belichick is rarely active in trading down. More often than not, it's been other teams calling him: in 2010, he fielded calls for 22 and 24. They were STILL getting calls for 27, when he finally said enough.

(2) Last year's "trade" with Philadelphia aside, BB is eminently rational. He must have felt—for better or for worse—that (1) there wasn't anybody at 62 he was clearly interested in drafting, (2) that he'd rather have later picks, and (3) that the seemingly lousy offer on the table was still better than picking at 62.

 

[State]

The point I've seen no one address (well, except for me) is that the trade down in which Reiss, the diplomatic one, gives the club a D- for heaven's sake, was because 1) this is all we were offered although another club almost immediately after was given considerably more; and 2) Belichick took it.

Even if it works out, it points to what I said about trends or the law of diminishing returns.

In negotiations you don't want to let the other guy make it so you're being done a favor. Rather, the reverse.

I get the impression that this time around other teams were approached and dealt with the Patriots from a position of relative strength, knowing this is what the Pats wanted to do.

Walk away, I say, from deals such as this, whether on the used car lot or the NFL draft.

 

[DaBruinz]

I just like Jones and Iloka. Iloka is a much better football player than Tavon "I can't make all big ten or even second team all big ten" Wilson. If Wilson didn't put out a 4.52 40 he'd have been a free agent.

Iloka ran a 4.68 at the combine and later at his pro day did better. I just like those two players. and there was another taken with them. I consider it a sweet spot in the draft.

So, what you are saying is that the Patriots scouts and BB are idiots who fall in love with Combine/Pro Day numbers and don't actually do any of the following:

1) Interveiw the player
2) sit down with the player and review film
3) Discuss X's and O's
4) Review film of the player prior to any of the above..

It should be pretty telling that, in a weak draft for Safeties, one who was supposedly rated amongst the highest fell to the 7th round. So, Iloka was passed on by 32 teams at least 6 times before someone felt he was worth taking.

Now, you keep knocking Wilson because he made the Honorable mention list for the Media last year and then the Media and Coaches the year before. But you've been forced to change your tune on this because it was pointed out to you that you were initially wrong when you claims he wasn't a 2 time Honorable mention, when he was.

Just accept that there are things we don't get to see/hear about that go into the decision making of drafting. It's why it's not an exact science.

 

[patchick]

The point I've seen no one address (well, except for me) is that the trade down in which Reiss, the diplomatic one, gives the club a D- for heaven's sake, was because 1) this is all we were offered although another club almost immediately after was given considerably more; and 2) Belichick took it.

I'm pretty sure I've read at least two dozen posts pointing this out, and during the draft everybody screamed about it. Obviously, it was a very weak trade. Just as obviously, Bill Belichick has made as many draft trades as anybody alive, so it wasn't a matter of ignorance, naïveté, not knowing how to pick up the phone, etc.

So how are we supposed to "address" it? Unlike odd-looking player selections, there's really no digging to be done or priorities to be divined. What the heck is there to say except "huh, that one looked ugly. What's up with that?"

 

[Off The Grid]

The Value Chart no longer exists under the new CBA.

WHAT???

That's the second time I've seen that statement, and I'm sorry but that's just ludicrous.

If anything, the bloated 1st Round salaries of recent years had dramatically ******ed the Trade Market, to the point where Top 10 Picks had become virtually untradeable.

Now that the Rookie Cap has been installed, the natural equilibrium of things ~ the unimpeded Free Market ~ off of which the Value Chart had been drawn in the first place, has clearly been restored, as evidenced by the spectacular storm of Top 10 Trades, this year!! :rocker:

The Jimmy Johnson value charte? I have to disagree, I actually think it's MORE accurate now.

Couldn't agree more!!

In any case, though, I think it goes out the window once you get down to the fifth or sixth round; I'd argue that the 3-for-1 trade was NOT a ripoff, even if it looks like one on the point scale.

Concur!! As I've said a few times, the later Rounds are vastly undervalued on that Chart.

Harvard Draft Value Chart

Do y'all have opinions on the efficacy of this??



Here's the lengthy article that produced it!!

How to Value NFL Draft Picks | The Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective

Please note: There's obviously something screwy with the back end of the "7th" Round, mind you!!

 

[patchick]

Harvard Draft Value Chart

Do y'all have opinions on the efficacy of this??



Here's the lengthy article that produced it!!

I wasn't around here much in the offseason, I assume this was already talked to death on this board. But if not it would make a great topic for the dead days of May. Remember that Belichick & Adams are notorious for actually reading and considering academic research on football risks and strategy, and even contacting the researchers for more info!

 

[Off The Grid]

It ain't just the chart, there's a more important consideration. And that is Belichick in being very active in trading down undermines his potential value he can get in return. This draft shows me the law of diminishing returns for his doing so. He might need to think about manning up and staying where he is, rather than get hosed like he apparently did with his second round trade down.

That's kind of ridiculous, isn't it?? When you look at the facts??

Nobody in the 77 year history of the draft has more shamelessly taken repeated advantage of other GM's than Coach Bill The Mad (Genius). Need I recite his long litany of thefts??

And just look at the man's Character: Everything about him and everything he's done speak to a cool, calculating character who might make the occasional mistake ~ he does!! ~ but who rarely deals from weakness. In fact, he's quite clearly fanatical about not dealing from weakness...don't you think??

BB is eminently rational. He must have felt—for better or for worse—that (1) there wasn't anybody at 62 he was clearly interested in drafting, (2) that he'd rather have later picks, and (3) that the seemingly lousy offer on the table was still better than picking at 62.

Considering how much preliminary groundwork we're told these guys do, in regards to potential trades, Mad Bill's failure to get even close to what the Browns shortly thereafter got for a lesser Pick...will likely forever remain inexplicable...especially considering his reputation as a Wheeler and Dealer, which obviates the idea that the Broncos didn't even think about calling him.

The point I've seen no one address (well, except for me) is that the trade down in which Reiss, the diplomatic one, gives the club a D- for heaven's sake, was because 1) this is all we were offered although another club almost immediately after was given considerably more; and 2) Belichick took it.

That's crazy, Bro. As PatChick points out: There've been a ton of mentions about this.

 

[Off The Grid]

I think Bill should have kept the pick if that was all he was going to get.

It's an interesting subject, and well worth a sidebar. I hope I haven't been too annoying over the last few posts. I greatly enjoy your work, and I'm not sharpshooting, I promise.

1 ~ I have no problem with the Trade Down from a Points perspective. The Chart is only a Book Value mechanism. The Market at a given moment is what determines the Market. I think it stands to reason that Mad Bill considered the Draft Class extremely unpalatable at #62 ~ so unpalatable, in fact, that #90 and #163 seemed like an improvement. I couldn't've agreed less, as I liked several guys who went in between #62 and #90...However, having established his own judgement of the Prospects likely to go in that range, and having found them wanting, I applaud the principle of his Trade Down, and if that's the best that the Market provided, then that's what the Pick ~ #62 ~ was worth, Value Charts be damned.

2 ~ However, the Browns + Broncos trade clearly illustrated that the Market could've done much better.

3 ~ It is inexplicable. Does anyone know of any precedent for such a spectacular disconnect??

 

[IllegalContact]

straight up A

it would have been an A++ to me if they used the tavon wilson pick more efficiently, but I've been begging for this type of draft for years now (pass rush/OLB)

even if these guys don't pan out, I won't complain the way I do about the useless drafting of brace and butler

 

[patsfaninpa]

straight up A

I won't complain the way I do about the useless drafting of brace and butler

I didn't like the Brace pick because we had Vince and Mike Wright healthy at the time. We absolutely need a cb though. Darius Butler was considered a 1st round pick by nearly everybody. He sucked. But, it was at a position we needed. And, he wasn't considered a reach by any means.

 

[captain stone]

If we had taken Dennard in the second and Wilson in the seventh, would anybody be as fixated on Wilson as they are now?

Taking Dennard at 48, while better DBs Robinson, Trumaine Johnson, Taylor & Fleming
were still available, would've been an awful pick.

No matter how it's sliced, that 2nd round was an inexcusable, unmitigated abomination.

 

[captain stone]

Ever heard of Freedom of Speach, Bub?

It's clear that unless 100% of Patriots Nation responds to every one of Coach Bill's moves with fervent, fawning, and unconditional approval and rapturous applause, then we're gonna have to be beset with the spectacle of you and yours throwing squealing, snivelling temper tantrums about it.

And I'll bet you can't even fathom how deeply, richly ironic that is.

Whining...about the whining??

Personally, I've moved forward from the Tavon Wilson Tragedy, but in a Free Society ~ perhaps you haven't heard ~ people are free to express their own opinions as they see fit.

Amen, Brother Grid.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It's an interesting subject, and well worth a sidebar. I hope I haven't been too annoying over the last few posts. I greatly enjoy your work, and I'm not sharpshooting, I promise.

1 ~ I have no problem with the Trade Down from a Points perspective. The Chart is only a Book Value mechanism. The Market at a given moment is what determines the Market. I think it stands to reason that Mad Bill considered the Draft Class extremely unpalatable at #62 ~ so unpalatable, in fact, that #90 and #163 seemed like an improvement. I couldn't've agreed less, as I liked several guys who went in between #62 and #90...However, having established his own judgement of the Prospects likely to go in that range, and having found them wanting, I applaud the principle of his Trade Down, and if that's the best that the Market provided, then that's what the Pick ~ #62 ~ was worth, Value Charts be damned.

2 ~ However, the Browns + Broncos trade clearly illustrated that the Market could've done much better.

3 ~ It is inexplicable. Does anyone know of any precedent for such a spectacular disconnect??

With no evidence other than my own reasoning, I propose this hypothesis:

If either team is going to feel short-changed in a trade, it's the one making the call, not the one receiving.

There just wasn't anyone enthusiastically looking to trade up to that spot, I guess.