Astute and insightful. I'd love to see where you stand on other WR's in the league.
I like to pick out receivers that are gonna have big years. This year I hit on Hogan having a big year being in the system a little big longer (before he got injured - that hit though, I knew he was washed up for the rest of the year). In '14 I called Sanders having a monster year in the preseason cause I saw BB trying to nab him from the Steelers the year prior. He was bound to have monster year with a decent QB and a true WR1 pulling coverage from him. I like finding the trends in receivers year to year, but I keep missing on Cobb, I think because the pack paid him like a WR2 - really fooled me.
I really do think the WR2 and WR3 are more interesting that the flashy WR1.
Yeah. What/who is, or is not, a "True WR1"? To me the question is a bit tougher to answer than it seems. And it becomes an especially hot debate when talking about who makes the list and who doesn't.
Yet, there's a reason why we call them WR1's and WR2/3's. A true WR1 is able to divert attention (like you said) onto himself and still have production, while opening opportunities up for players across the field (like the Sanders example).
I think this is part of it, but another important part is how well a guy continues to produce at a very high level even when his supporting cast is generally mediocre (QB, running game, other pass-catchers). Hopkins seems to be one of those guys, and Andre Johnson before him. Megatron. Such guys are exceedingly rare.
But that's where the WR market-driven pay scale comes into play. A lot of GMs, and especially owners, talk themselves into believing that they've caught that very special lightning in a bottle in the draft (or free agency) and overpay a guy on his second contract. So, a lot of guys who might be just pretty good complimentary pieces (or maybe not) end up getting paid top dollar and raising the price of all other WRs down the line. Then, other teams have difficulty retaining their own complimentray-piece WRs at a salary that allows them to keep the rest of a good supporting cast intact and stay under the cap.
IOW, there are a lot of good (and not so good), "complimentary-piece" WRs getting paid more than they're worth (in an ideal, rational, alternate dimension to our NFL). Dez and Demaryius Thomas have made guys like Jeffrey, Baldwin, Keenan Allen, TY Hilton, and probably Cooks, a lot more expensive. And, of course, almost any younger, decent complimentary-type WR can have a breakout, WR1-type season as a one-off (Cobb; maybe also Golden Tate).
Dez Bryant, for example, is NOT a "True WR1" IMHO, and I'm not certain that he ever really was. Bryant illustrates the flip-side for me - that there are always a lot of guys who can
appear to be WR1 level
in the right circumstances (for awhile, at least) with a lot of
good complementary pieces around them. But even a "True WR1" isn't necessarily capable of making a couple of total JAGs into consistent and solid #2s merely by his sheer presence on the field.
And then there are guys who are legit WR1s through their first couple contracts, and who remain very good complimentary pieces for a few years afterward (Boldin).
The other thing is that a truly good or great QB (e.g., Brady, Brees, Rodgers), with a very good coordinator, can be extremely successful with a deep enough collection of very good complimentary pieces/pass-catchers (TE's and RBs, as well as WRs). JimmyG appears to be doing that with the Niners' pass-catchers (particularly Marquise Goodwin).
Anyway, there's a metric crap-tonne more to this, but, for now, I'll say that ...
- Gronk is (now) pretty close to being a legit WR1
- Cooks appears to be a
very good complimentary guy (Deion Branch+)
- Hogan and Amendola seem like solid, supporting cast types to me ("#3s")
- Not enough to go on yet with Mitchell or Dorsett, really, but both seem to have some significant potential to become solid #2/#3 guys (Mitchell moreso than Dorsett, at this point).
