For the 2016 Pats to be in/win SB 51 the D has to improve ALOT

[Ring 6]

Seattle, Minnessota, Denver

So you think there are only 3 teams who can win a SB this year, 2 of which are QBd by Trevor Simien and Sam Bradford. OK.
Interesting that you like defenses that allow more points though.

 

[Ring 6]

Here we go, who said anything about a gurantee. Sure when your talking about probability its always more unlikely. But the odds are in our favor. Stop with the straw mans

It wasn't a strawman. You posted about your consternation that the odds of the Patriots winning a SB are less than 50/50. That's ignorant.

 

[fightingirish595]

It wasn't a strawman. You posted about your consternation that the odds of the Patriots winning a SB are less than 50/50. That's ignorant.

The patriots are the favorites to win the superbowl. Maybe that was a bad way of saying what i meant which was that it was less likely for us to win. and yes it was a straw man because neither me or myself never made an argument about any gurantee.

So you think there are only 3 teams who can win a SB this year, 2 of which are QBd by Trevor Simien and Sam Bradford. OK.
Interesting that you like defenses that allow more points though.

Marc Sanchez came in here and beat us in a playoff game Because no one could get open and we could not stop them when it mattered

Edit: again another strawman, you asked a question and I answered. I never said only 3 teams could win the superbowl. I can not prognosticate who is going to be playing their best ball in January.

 

[PatsBoy12]

I agree there must be improvement in certain areas of the game to win it all. The style they're playing now is good for NOW, but it won't be in December and January.

 

[Kontradiction]

the defense has been very jeckyll and hyde....and part of it may be scheme. The first half the pats played zone for whatever reason and dalton ate it apart.

in the second half they switched to man to man tight defense sending blitzes on dalton and it slowed them down. Why they didnt do that earlier I dont know.

BB has this fear of mobile qb's where he literally plays prefent zone. and it never usually works IMO

They played more man yesterday halfway through the third and the DL started to push instead of play contain. The result was Dalton being able to get outside the pocket more but his internal clock was sped up. I almost threw something at the TV when the front four were playing contain on 3rd and 24. That was absolutely brutal.

 

[Ring 6]

The patriots are the favorites to win the superbowl. Maybe that was a bad way of saying what i meant which was that it was less likely for us to win. and yes it was a straw man because neither me or myself never made an argument about any gurantee.




Marc Sanchez came in here and beat us in a playoff game Because no one could get open and we could not stop them when it mattered

Edit: again another strawman, you asked a question and I answered. I never said only 3 teams could win the superbowl. I can not prognosticate who is going to be playing their best ball in January.

So 6 years ago we lost a game, and that is your argument that the defense allowing the second fewest points in the NFL isn't good enough to win the SB?

 

[Ring 6]

The patriots are the favorites to win the superbowl. Maybe that was a bad way of saying what i meant which was that it was less likely for us to win. and yes it was a straw man because neither me or myself never made an argument about any gurantee.
.

OK, remove the word guarantee, it was short hand for thinking any team could ever have a better than 50/50 chance to win the SB by week 6.

 

[ivanvamp]

Compare the 2014 defense (when they won the Super Bowl) to this year's.

Points allowed:
2014: #8 (19.6)
2016: #2 (15.2)

Yards allowed:
2014: #13 (344.1)
2016: #13 (347.0)

Opp passer rating:
2014: #10 (84.0)
2016: #15 (89.9)

Opp rushing yds/g:
2014: #9 (104.3)
2016: #9 (92.0)

Opp rush avg/carry:
2014: #9 (4.0)
2016: #9 (3.7)

Opp 3rd down conversion %:
2014: #16 (40.2)
2016: #27 (44.2)

Turnovers:
2014: #13 (1.5/g)
2016: #12 (1.3/g)

Opp Red Zone TD%:
2014: #11 (51.9%)
2016: #29 (71.4%)

So this defense in 2016 is basically the same caliber as the 2014 unit (a little better in some categories, a little worse in others, but remarkably similar on the whole) that was good enough to win the Super Bowl.

Is this defense good enough to win it all? Absolutely. Can this defense carry them to a SB title? Unlikely. The offense needs to do its job too. But....there's a good chance it will.

 

[Tony2046]

So 6 years ago we lost a game, and that is your argument that the defense allowing the second fewest points in the NFL isn't good enough to win the SB?

But the Patriots almost lost SB 49.

 

[Ring 6]

Compare the 2014 defense (when they won the Super Bowl) to this year's.

Points allowed:
2014: #8 (19.6)
2016: #2 (15.2)

Yards allowed:
2014: #13 (344.1)
2016: #13 (347.0)

Opp passer rating:
2014: #10 (84.0)
2016: #15 (89.9)

Opp rushing yds/g:
2014: #9 (104.3)
2016: #9 (92.0)

Opp rush avg/carry:
2014: #9 (4.0)
2016: #9 (3.7)

Opp 3rd down conversion %:
2014: #16 (40.2)
2016: #27 (44.2)

Turnovers:
2014: #13 (1.5/g)
2016: #12 (1.3/g)

Opp Red Zone TD%:
2014: #11 (51.9%)
2016: #29 (71.4%)

So this defense in 2016 is basically the same caliber as the 2014 unit (a little better in some categories, a little worse in others, but remarkably similar on the whole) that was good enough to win the Super Bowl.

Is this defense good enough to win it all? Absolutely. Can this defense carry them to a SB title? Unlikely. The offense needs to do its job too. But....there's a good chance it will.

We are talking about a defense that has allowed 4 TDs in the last 4 games.

Yesterday, some time near mid second quarter, the Patriots led 3-0, and the guy sitting next me got up, apparently to beat the lines to the bathroom, and said 'the defense is playing like ****'. I immediately assumed he posts on this board because only here could someone think not allowing a point is a defense playing like ****.

 

[JMC00]

They are ranked the 4th scoring defense in the league.

#2 if you go by Points Allowed Per Game

 

[SEA_Pat]

Remind me again - which side of the ball has let us down in our big losses over the years, the D or the O? Remind me again - when the games start to count late in the season, injuries have taken their toll, tendencies are very well known and the weather is bad, which tends to regress, the D or the O?

I'm completely satisfied with the D and encouraged with the O. If we can avoid major injuries we're in the best position we've been in for a while. My only real concern is the O-line as it's been our Achilles Heel in the past.

 

[mosslost]

The patriots are the favorites to win the superbowl. Maybe that was a bad way of saying what i meant which was that it was less likely for us to win. and yes it was a straw man because neither me or myself never made an argument about any gurantee.




Marc Sanchez came in here and beat us in a playoff game Because no one could get open and we could not stop them when it mattered

Edit: again another strawman, you asked a question and I answered. I never said only 3 teams could win the superbowl. I can not prognosticate who is going to be playing their best ball in January.

It's hard to win the Super Bowl, last year perfect example. (I feel like we kind of blew last year, easily best team)

The Pats have been the best team more often than not, but have not won the Super Bowl in some of those years. (2007, 2006 imo, 2011 we should have won, 2012 you can make an argument because we were AFCCG at home..)

 

[mosslost]

Remind me again - which side of the ball has let us down in our big losses over the years, the D or the O? Remind me again - when the games start to count late in the season, injuries have taken their toll, tendencies are very well known and the weather is bad, which tends to regress, the D or the O?

I'm completely satisfied with the D and encouraged with the O. If we can avoid major injuries we're in the best position we've been in for a while. My only real concern is the O-line as it's been our Achilles Heel in the past.

In my opinion we ****ed up number 5 with the stupid Miami game last year. (not to mention Eagles game.)

 

[Ring 6]

But the Patriots almost lost SB 49.

But you have to be scared because of all those playoff failures. I mean we are only 22-9 in the playoffs since BB arrived, in 13 trips, with 4 Championships.
We need to be more like Minnesota (6 trips 3-6, 0 Champs), Seattle (10 trips, 12-9, 1 champ) or Denver (9 trips, 7-8, 1 champ).
Surely they are far better than a 22-9 playoff record with 4 SB Championship, but a loss in 2010 to cry about.

 

[mosi]

What about the offense? When the Pats loose, they rarely get blown out. More often, it is something like last years AFCGC, 20-18, etc. I think the Pats O will always need to score 28+ for this team to win.

 

[PatriotsReign]

Or.....the Pats offense can get so frikkn good it won't matter if the defense gets much better

Dion Lewis WILL be returning

 

[RobertWeathers]

What about the offense? When the Pats loose, they rarely get blown out. More often, it is something like last years AFCGC, 20-18, etc. I think the Pats O will always need to score 28+ for this team to win.

With the offense at full strength and healthy they should score 28 with their eyes closed.

 

[mosslost]

What about the offense? When the Pats loose, they rarely get blown out. More often, it is something like last years AFCGC, 20-18, etc. I think the Pats O will always need to score 28+ for this team to win.

28 should win every game this year

 

[fightingirish595]

But you have to be scared because of all those playoff failures. I mean we are only 22-9 in the playoffs since BB arrived, in 13 trips, with 4 Championships.
We need to be more like Minnesota (6 trips 3-6, 0 Champs), Seattle (10 trips, 12-9, 1 champ) or Denver (9 trips, 7-8, 1 champ).
Surely they are far better than a 22-9 playoff record with 4 SB Championship, but a loss in 2010 to cry about.

Its the bigger picture. Based on what I have seen this year, I am concerned that a team with a very good defense and a nickel and dime you offense can come in here and beat us if the 3rd down defense does not get better. Ive seen this story before, We all have. If were scoring 35 a gsme in the playoffs great, but I do not expect that because its outside the norm