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I really like AJ Brown... His price isn't that bad considering his production. But he will be 28 next year. Carter is 21 and we'd have him for 4-5 years on cheap money. AJ Brown will very likely be the more impactful player of the 2 over 4 years cause he is already really good and you just don't know about Carter for sure....
But to give up a cheap 4 year contract on Carter for Brown is very questionable. Carter will probably end up costing 37M total over 4 years. That is less than half of Brown's salary (about 40% of it) and there will be no decline to be worried about.
Brown's contract is like this... Cap hit: 17.5M 23.4M 22.7M 27.5M 29.3M And his last year of 53M is fake and has no Guaranteed cash attached to it at all. Those caps hits are for 2025, 26, 27, 28 and 29. He will be 28 29 30 31 and 32... Over 17 games he averages 1327 yards.
He has been a top 10 pass catcher in this league the past 4 seasons. I don't see why that wouldn't continue for a while. At least the next 3 years anyway. Let's do a fun thing and compare the 4 year price of both.
Carter 4 years... 37-38M 9.33M/year (give or take)
Brown 4 years... 97M 24.25M/year (there is about 6M dead cap hit if we cut him after 4 years)
We don't know if we could keep Carter here after 4 years for sure... or if he will even be good. We know Brown will be REALLY good the next 3 years... maybe even 4 or 5 if we want to keep him 5. For the next 3 years at least we'd get a top 10 WR at a good price. That ain't chopped liver
If they were to throw in pick 32 as well... I'd honestly be tempted. It be worth considering. If Brown is a top 10 pass rusher in this league or even top 15 we end up looking like we got the short end. If he's not... we probably win that trade.
While you hate to walk away from a cheap contract from Carter consider this...
AJ Brown plus 2 offensive linemen taken at 32 and 38. WR core is now a strength. We get OL help with what should be 2 dependable high level options. The offense is now pretty much set outside of a few odds and ends. The Defense looks good. If we hit on the OL and they can help immediately that is a team ready to make some noise instantly THIS YEAR. Not win it all most likely... but a deep run is now possible.
But to give up a cheap 4 year contract on Carter for Brown is very questionable. Carter will probably end up costing 37M total over 4 years. That is less than half of Brown's salary (about 40% of it) and there will be no decline to be worried about.
Brown's contract is like this... Cap hit: 17.5M 23.4M 22.7M 27.5M 29.3M And his last year of 53M is fake and has no Guaranteed cash attached to it at all. Those caps hits are for 2025, 26, 27, 28 and 29. He will be 28 29 30 31 and 32... Over 17 games he averages 1327 yards.
He has been a top 10 pass catcher in this league the past 4 seasons. I don't see why that wouldn't continue for a while. At least the next 3 years anyway. Let's do a fun thing and compare the 4 year price of both.
Carter 4 years... 37-38M 9.33M/year (give or take)
Brown 4 years... 97M 24.25M/year (there is about 6M dead cap hit if we cut him after 4 years)
We don't know if we could keep Carter here after 4 years for sure... or if he will even be good. We know Brown will be REALLY good the next 3 years... maybe even 4 or 5 if we want to keep him 5. For the next 3 years at least we'd get a top 10 WR at a good price. That ain't chopped liver
If they were to throw in pick 32 as well... I'd honestly be tempted. It be worth considering. If Brown is a top 10 pass rusher in this league or even top 15 we end up looking like we got the short end. If he's not... we probably win that trade.
While you hate to walk away from a cheap contract from Carter consider this...
AJ Brown plus 2 offensive linemen taken at 32 and 38. WR core is now a strength. We get OL help with what should be 2 dependable high level options. The offense is now pretty much set outside of a few odds and ends. The Defense looks good. If we hit on the OL and they can help immediately that is a team ready to make some noise instantly THIS YEAR. Not win it all most likely... but a deep run is now possible.











